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Atlanta Braves Interest Level in Luis Robert Could be a Math Lesson

By Alan Carpenter

Dec 3, 2016; Santiago de Cuba, Cuba; The ashes of Cuban president Fidel Castro pass through Cespedes Park in Santiago de Cuba where he declared victory on Jan. 1, 1959. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK
Dec 3, 2016; Santiago de Cuba, Cuba; The ashes of Cuban president Fidel Castro pass through Cespedes Park in Santiago de Cuba where he declared victory on Jan. 1, 1959. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK /
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Dec 3, 2016; Santiago de Cuba, Cuba; The ashes of Cuban president Fidel Castro pass through Cespedes Park in Santiago de Cuba where he declared victory on Jan. 1, 1959. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK
Dec 3, 2016; Santiago de Cuba, Cuba; The ashes of Cuban president Fidel Castro pass through Cespedes Park in Santiago de Cuba where he declared victory on Jan. 1, 1959. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK /

In 4 weeks, a bidding battle ensues for the services of Cuban teen Luis Robert.  Just how much he might be paid is not a factor of normal market forces.

Okay.  The Atlanta Braves are interested in Luis Robert.  That much we already had guessed.

Robert is a 6’3″/205 19-year-old who was tearing up the Cuban National Series league over the past two seasons (overall: .312/.401/.460/.860 in 208 games with 19 homers and 34 other XBH).  He defected from Cuban last Fall and has just managed to attain free agent status just in time to be (probably) the last signee of baseball’s 2016-17 “J2” International season.

As for his skills, the scouting reports seem to be about his bat speed and power, despite a bit of swing-and-miss in his game (127 K in 782 PAs; 16% rate, though the pitching in Cuba is not of the highest quality now).

He has some speed and good fielding skills, but if you’re going after this kid, it sounds like you will want him for a corner outfield/power bat position down the road.

Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline recently did a comparison of Robert to Yoan Moncada and while Moncada was a consensus #1 overall prospect, he would rank Robert in the Top 25 today.  Obviously very good, but not yet top shelf.

So how much will teams be willing to pay?

That’s  the question worth exploring today, for there are a host of factors that teams – the Braves included – will have to weigh when coming up with a bid.

A lot of this that follows is unique to Robert’s situation, which is why I thought it fascinating enough to write (at considerable length) about this.  Some elements may still be useful for future considerations as well.

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