Atlanta Braves May Have to Sweat Out 2017 Draft
There’s a lot of jockeying for position already underway at the top of the draft board, which may leave Atlanta with a hand full of solid options at #5.
The Atlanta Braves pick 5th in the June 12th draft, which means they have to sit and watch as things play out above them.
NASCAR has what’s termed the “silly season” – a time in which drivers’ contracts or sponsorships expire and then everyone starts playing a high-stakes version of musical chairs.
That could be how the draft is shaping up.
Hunter Greene is the top consensus player on many draft boards right now. He is a California high schooler who has a 100 mph fastball plus enough skill to be a first rounder if he were selected as a shortstop.
The draft order for the protected picks is this: Twins, Reds, Padres, Rays, Braves, A’s, DBacks, Phillies, Brewers, and Angels.
But if BaseballAmerica’s analysis is correct, it’s the Reds and Padres who might control the direction of this draft:
“…the rumors of [Greene] and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret. The Padres’ throwing program is more in line with Greene’s program, and it’s on the West Coast, among other advantages. Greene isn’t pitching this week in the Boras Classic and is widely believed to be shutting down as a pitcher in another attempt to move down to the third pick.
The Boras Classic, eh?
By BA’s current reckoning, the Twins may not be inclined to even attempt drafting Greene if it’s this obvious that he doesn’t want to play for them. Interestingly enough, they also are projecting that the Cincinnati Reds might not be deterred by this ploy.
Strategy Sessions
If Greene is the #1 talent, then Brendan McKay of Louisville (LHP) seems to be #2. Rumblings that I’m seeing suggest that the draft is not deep in terms of position players, particularly at the college level.
You can freely interpret that to mean ‘the Braves will probably draft a lot of pitchers again’.
But it’s the scrum at the top that’s of most interest right now. Reading between the lines, here’s what I’m guessing for the clubs drafting ahead of Atlanta.
TWINS.
It would ultimately be a surprise if Minnesota opted for somebody not named Greene or McKay, but BA suggests that they are casting a fairly wide net while attempting to pre-negotiate some deals.
This suggests some draft chicanery, but that’s plausible at their 1-1 position. Nonetheless, if they don’t pick one of those kids, then they will (a) become the subject of strong intrigue as the draft progresses, and (b) make the Reds and Padres very happy.
REDS.
They want McKay… but if Greene is there, he may be hard for them to ignore. Still, there’s a lot to be said for getting somebody who actually wants to play for you… and McKay would be much closer to the majors for a team looking for better pitching sooner than later.
PADRES.
If Greene does fall this far, then the Padres will quickly take him with much rejoicing. But if not, then the scrambling starts here. BA leaves the possible options quite widely open in this scenario, though settling for high school infielder Royce Lewis (San Juan Capistrano, CA).
Absent Greene, though, taking another player willing to accept less money for this slot ($6.668 million) would help them to ‘buy out’ some college commitments later in the draft. This is a team building their farm by quantity, so such a backup plan makes sense for them.
RAYS.
Wildcards. BA notes a poor drafting history from their prior first rounders – particularly with high school position players. Of note, if this club is still intending to sell off 1 or 2 of their major league rotation members within the next year or so, then BA’s guess of a college starter – someone closer to the majors – rings true. They are suggesting Vanderbilt’s Kyle Wright for Tampa Bay.
About the Braves
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Atlanta’s draft policy is ‘take the best player available’. That said, they tend to shy away from collegiate players at the top of the draft.
So while the best on BaseballAmerica’s draft board still available at this point could be J.B. Bukauskas, a right-hander from North Carolina, the best high school prospects might be these:
- #4: Austin Beck, OF, N Davidson HS (NC)
- #7: Royce Lewis (if available; see above)
- #8: Nick Pratto, 1B, Huntington Beach HS (CA)
- #12: D.L. Hall, LHP, Valdosta HS (GA)
- #13: MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS (NC)
- #14: Jordan Adell, OF, Ballard HS (KY)
- #15: Heliot Ramos, Leadership Christian Academy (Puerto Rico)
Right now, if I were to place bets on the Atlanta pick, it would be for either Beck or Gore. BaseballAmerica has selected Beck for the Braves in both of their mock drafts thus far.
Gore is rocketing up the ranking charts in a hurry, and Jim Callis had an extended discussion about him just yesterday in answer to a question from @BravesHerbert. He’s listed at 6′-1′”/185 (but somehow looks taller) and obviously gets his legs involved early with a big kick during delivery.
BA has Gore going 7th to the Diamondbacks, while noting that he is “ahead of Greene as the top prep arm on many boards. He’s a supremely athletic pitcher with impressive polish for a prep”.
So do not sleep on MacKenzie Gore at all for the Braves. Heck, it would not shock me if the Rays snapped him up in the 4 slot in a move that might break Brian Bridges’ heart.
Austin Beck looks very good at the plate, and in this video had better pitch recognition than the umpire. The video has him driving two balls to the opposite field – one for a double, the other for a trot around the bases. He then hit another bomb pulled out to left field.
The power is real, and this kid might be the one exception to the rule that the Braves have been living by for the past few drafts.
The Braves have a targeted amount of $5.707 million for their first draft pick and a total pool of $9.88 million for the first 10 rounds.
Next: Catching Up on Interesting Notes
Obviously it’s still way early in the process, though it appears likely that at least one of these players (between Beck and Gore) will be available at position 5. Even if not, the Braves’ first draftee would be happily selected from among one of the others noted above.