Atlanta Braves 2017 Player Previews: Jaime Garcia

Next up in our Atlanta Braves Player Previews is brand new starting pitcher, Jaime Garcia.

The Braves 2016 offseason was a big one for the starting rotation, as the Braves acquired three starting pitchers. Of those acquired, Jaime Garcia came over to the Atlanta Braves from St. Louis.

Garcia has had an inconsistent career mainly due to injury, but can he re-discover himself with the Braves?

2016 Recap

Following a career year in 2015, Garcia looked like a guy who finally figured it out. For just the third time in his career, Garcia logged over 160 innings in a season.

Although healthy, Garcia did not impress.

Garcia finished the season 10-13 with a 4.67 ERA, along with a 1.38 WHIP. It was subpar, to say the least, not expected from Garcia in a healthy season. Garcia did have an 8 K/9, but that was his only outlier.

2017 Steamer Projections

For the first time in a long time, I can honestly say that I completely agree with a steamer projection!

For the 2017 season, Steamer projects Garcia to go 8-8 with a
3.60 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 130 innings pitched.

Now, of course, these projections are predicting injury issues for Garcia, which is a safe assumption. Garcia had Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, along with two shoulder surgeries. Garcia has also dealt with groin problems in the past.

Even with the low number of innings pitched, I believe Garcia can still be a viable asset to the Braves. Garcia was brought in this year to be a bridge to our younger guys, but he still holds some upside at just 30 years old.

What Could Go Wrong?

This section of the article is the easiest part to explain, Garcia’s worst case scenario is an injury. Now, he did struggle last season while throwing 170 innings.

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However, that is unlikely to repeat if healthy.

Throughout Garcia’s career, he has never posted an ERA above 3.92 when making at least 20 starts aside from last season. I know, I know, a 3.92 ERA is not that great. However, it is good enough to possibly be the earned run average of a fourth or fifth starter.

Garcia’s illustrious injury history is his ultimate downfall here, Braves fans. The worst case scenario would be that he missed most or all of the season with a recurring injury, making our one-year rental of him pointless.

What Could Go Right?

I know it feels repetitive when talking about Garcia, but it is just so true. “What Could Go Right” for Garcia has to be dictated by health, that is just the truth.

In 2015, Garcia put together his best professional season. He went 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA in about 130 innings. Although the strikeout percentage was not high, Garcia induced soft contact throughout the year. Garcia allowed just a .267 BABIP that entire season.

Garcia would need to carry that over, let his defense work behind him. The Swanson-Phillips combination is solid up the middle, so that should have a positive impact on guys like Garcia who induce plenty of ground balls.

GIF: Jaime Garcia's Changeup was simply nasty during his CGSHO today pic.twitter.com/ArdClEMszk
— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) April 14, 2016

Last season Garcia allowed a .305 BABIP, which needs to go down if he wants to be effective. If he can get that number down to around .285, I think he can have a productive season and sit around a 3.30 ERA.

Jaime Garcia is not the most flashy arm the Braves have, but he can be an efficient starter for the club this year. Although Garcia provides an unclear floor, we know his ceiling is that of a number two starter.

Next: It's a Contest!

Keep an eye on Garcia this season: he will play a key part for the Braves if a playoff race arises.