Atlanta Braves Trying Hard to Beat the Math

The Evil Genius Plan

Atlanta is evidently banking on a few things working together in tandem:

• Most teams do not opt to stockpile pitching – via the draft or any other method.  Ergo, when their prospects bust, an instant “need” is created.
• The Braves are targeting the high-upside players – trying to get closer to that 52% rate instead of the 77% rate.
• They are going after high school pitchers more often – those with less wear on their arms already – in another attempt to lower the risk.  Even their college selections have not been high-inning pitchers.
• Mike Soroka and Ian Anderson are both examples of this philosophy.  Both high schoolers, but also both from cold-weather climates… less time to play and a bit under-the-radar for most teams.
• Even their Tommy-John survivors have ‘high-upside’ written all over them.  Combine that with the Braves significantly slowing their rehab times and allowing the injury to fully heal and that – they hope – continues to lower the risks involved.

Sure – some aspects of this will work better than others.  Some – many – of these players will still “fail” in some manner.  But keep this in mind:  it’s about quantity and odds, not about one single player.

In short, if you have 8 prospect pitchers and 6 fail, then you’ve only got 2 remaining to work with and you still have to fill out a five-man rotation.

However, if you have 20 prospect pitchers while working hard to reduce the failure rates, then you could end up with at least 5 good ones, and maybe a couple more.

Now you’re ahead of the game.

That is what the Braves are trying to accomplish.