Continuing our 2017 Atlanta Braves Player Previews is a look at potential starting third baseman, Rio Ruiz.
When the Evan Gattis trade went down for the Braves in 2015, Rio Ruiz was coming off of a great season. Ruiz excelled in High-A for the Astros, hitting .293/.387/.436 to go along with 11 HR and 77 RBI.
At the time of the deal, it was viewed that Ruiz could be a potential starter down the line for the Braves. Well, he finally has his chance to compete.
2016 Recap
Ruiz’s 2016 season was a step above his 2015 performance in AA, which was a great sign for the Braves. After struggling in AA the previous year, Ruiz improved his batting average by 42 points.
Although Gwinnett is a definite upgrade due to the way the park caters to hitters, Ruiz’s improvements in his average helped him gain a call-up to Atlanta in September.
Ruiz finished the year in AAA with a .271/.355/.400 slash line along with 10 HR and 62 RBI.
Ruiz’s promotion to Atlanta did not result in much playing time, as Ruiz logged just seven plate appearances. Ruiz did manage to get two base hits in his short time in Atlanta, but the experience was much needed as he is currently in a battle for the starting third base job.
2017 Steamer Projections
The Steamer Projections for Ruiz are not very good, as it seems like he is going to be viewed as a role player for the Braves this upcoming season after returning to AAA.
Steamer projects Ruiz to hit .233/.307/.353 with 3 HR and 15 RBI in only 169 plate appearances. For the most part, I do not think these projections are on the wrong track.
For starters, to make accurate projections for Ruiz, we need to know the status of his playing time. With Adonis Garcia on the roster and Ruiz being a left-handed hitter, it would be shocking to see Ruiz get many at-bats versus left-handed pitching.
I am under the assumption that Ruiz will start the year with Atlanta to platoon with Garcia, so I think the 169 plate appearances number is a little low. The low average projected by Steamer is likely a result of Ruiz’s high strikeout rate and inconsistency throughout his career.
Ruiz owns a career minor league slash line of .264/.353/.400, which is not what you ideally want out of a potential starting bat. On the power side of things, Ruiz has only hit 39 home runs across four minor league seasons. Combine all of this with his above-average strikeout rate, and you have some irrefutable evidence to justify these projections.
What Could Go Wrong?
At just 22 years old, there are plenty of bad possible outcomes to choose from. The worst is pretty obvious, Ruiz falls flat on his face at the plate.
As noted above, Ruiz has not really blown anybody away with his numbers. Hitting .271 in AAA is not that terrible, but he did not do much of anything else. If Ruiz would have backed up a .271 average with maybe 18 or so home runs, he would be viewed completely differently, such as someone who has not tapped his true power potential.
But how much more do we think he can develop?
The worst case scenario for Ruiz this season would be him winning the job, then struggling so much that he is demoted. His strikeout rate does not improve, while major league pitching baffles him. He is currently having a solid spring, but he is striking out an insanely high rate.
Ruiz has to cut his strikeouts and improve at the plate to keep a job this season.
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What Could Go Right?
Like I mentioned above, Ruiz was able to improve his batting average dramatically last season. The .271 does not overly impress, but it is a positive that he made the adjustments to improve.
Currently in Spring Training, Ruiz is getting plenty of work. Ruiz has logged 39 at-bats and should see plenty more with the big league club before the end of spring. Ruiz is hitting .308 with 1 HR and 4 RBI. Although Ruiz is singling everyone to death (2 of his 12 hits are extra base hits), it is a good sign that he seems to be using the whole field to hit.
From Saturday: #Braves 3B prospect Rio Ruiz hit his first home run of the spring, an opposite field shot. pic.twitter.com/jVRHYgptIA
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) March 5, 2017
Everything going right for Ruiz would have to start with the strikeouts. He would need to cut that down by at least 5% to reach an average level. This would lead to more contact and more chances at reaching base.
If Ruiz can do that and maintain his career batting average, we could be looking at a .275-.280 hitter. This would be seen as a best case scenario in my eyes, especially if he could add at least 10 home runs. That would be fine with me for a platoon third baseman.
Rio Ruiz finally has his chance to make the Atlanta Braves after four minor league seasons; however, with Adonis Garcia already up and producing, Ruiz does not have an easy path.
Ruiz has shown the ability to adjust, so now we get to see if he can successfully do just that.