2017 Atlanta Braves Season Preview: Right-Handed Relief Pitcher Arodys Vizcaino

Over the past two seasons, Arodys Vizcaino‘s performance has reached tremendous highs as a valuable closer and frustrating lows that saw him lose the Atlanta Braves’ closer status. What should we expect for 2017?

Let’s take a look back at Vizcaino’s 2015 numbers.

Clearly, when the righty is on his game, he looks like an All-Star-type reliever.

In fact, he probably would’ve been an All-Star had his season not started three months in. Among NL relievers with at least 30 innings pitched, Vizcaino ranked.

• T-4th ERA (1.60)
• 8th in HR/9 (0.27)
• 11th in FIP (2.48)

His fastball averaged close to 98 MPH, his slider about 85 MPH, and his ERA was outstanding. The optics said that he was a very good closer and a piece to build the bullpen around as he’s under contract until 2019.

Now, heading into the 2017 season, he’s seemingly lost his closer spot and he’s left fans wondering if he will ever return to his 2015 form again. What happened?

2015 Season: Fluke?

Vizcaino’s numbers were great in 2015, but every advanced metric to be read screams “unsustainable”. 

Take, for instance, his LD% (line drive %). At, 27.9%, he gave up the most line drives per ball in play in the NL among relievers. Further, he wasn’t giving up softly hit balls. He only gave up soft contact 11.2% of the time, which was 4th-worst among MLB relievers.

The fact that he throws hard isn’t a valid excuse. Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Sam Dyson, Blake Treinen, and Zach Britton were all top-20 in both average fastball velocity and soft contact percentage in 2015. Batters were just hitting Vizcaino, in particular, hard.

Further, most balls hit against the righty were heading towards shorter fences. Only 27% of balls in play were hit up the middle, 2nd-lowest in the NL. Opposing batters were pulling the ball at a 36% rate, while hitting opposite-field 37.1% of the time.

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So, let’s recap– Vizcaino was getting hit hard, harder than just about any other reliever in the NL, in fact. The balls hit against him were medium-to-hard contact 88.8% of the time and most of them were traveling towards the shortest parts of the ballpark.

How on earth did Vizcaino not only have a great ERA, but one of the best HR/9’s?

An explanation that would work would be excellent strikeout numbers. The logic is simple: although he’s getting mashed on balls in play, a lot of strikeouts means less balls in play. However, this was hardly the case. Vizcaino struck out only 26.6% of batters, 62nd among relievers with >30 IP.

Outside of the A+ level or below in the minors, Vizcaino had the best HR/9 rate of his career, but he couldn’t keep the batters from making hard contact within the fences. The average launch angle on a ball in play was low, which averted home runs, but made for a lot of line drives. Normally, a pitcher would still have bad numbers in this instance.

This is when the word “fluke” starts getting tossed around. Balls were getting hit directly to where defensive players were stationed. According to FanGraphs, the league average on line drives (2014) was .685. In Vizcaino’s case, batters had a .560 average on line drives. Of those line drives, only four went for extra bases out of 25 total.

So, somehow, he maintained a BABIP of .295, which is essentially league-average, even though he was the hardest-hit reliever in the NL.

Credit luck, the shift, or some sort of outside force, but his 2015 was fluky.

2016 Season

Vizcaino was solid before his first trip to the DL in 2016. From opening day to July 6th, his last appearance before the game he was injured in, he had a 2.75 ERA in 38 appearances (36 IP). He also recorded 10 saves to that point. I’ll get back to this point later, but this is the type of pitcher that I think Vizcaino is.

He was sent to the 15-day DL due to an injury to his right oblique that he sustained while throwing a pitch against Colorado on July 15th. From this moment on, he clearly wasn’t the same.

Despite there being 72 games left in the season after hurting his oblique, Vizcaino appeared in only four of them, amassing seven ER and only eight outs.

His final 2016 numbers came out to a 4.42 ERA in 38.2 IP. However, the numbers didn’t necessarily matter; his unavailability lost him the closer job as Jim Johnson did a phenomenal job as his replacement.

2017 Prediction

Let’s go back to that first stretch of 2016 before Vizcaino got hurt. 2.75 ERA. Remember that number.

During this stretch, a few key numbers were much more realistic than they were during his 2015 campaign. I’m referencing his LD%, his K%, and his soft contact %. Here are his numbers from opening day to the end of June, by month:

Hey, look, we’re back to a world in which a high LD% equates to more ER given up! The more important numbers here, however, are the soft contact % and K%. Those look like realistic numbers for a late-innings reliever who throws heat.

Due to a lack of fluke, his ERA went up a whole tick from 1.60 to 2.75 even though batters weren’t hitting the ball as hard off of him and were striking out more. This is good because it finally gives fans a basis as to what to expect from Vizcaino. Unless he fundamentally gets better as a pitcher, he won’t have a 1.60 ERA again. Inversely, unless he gets worse or is dealing with injury again, he shouldn’t be a 4.42 ERA pitcher.

For this reason, my personal prediction is that Vizcaino, in 2017, will have a career-high IP total (likely north of 50) with a season ERA around 2.75. Along with his own performance, him reacquiring the closer status with the Braves is also contingent on how Jim Johnson pitches this season because as our very own Jeff Schafer pointed out, Johnson totally earned the role in the second half of last season.

Next: 2017 Braves Season Preview: R.A. Dickey

Note: While numbers from Spring Training games don’t usually mean too much, Vizcaino’s 2017 ST stats should be a cause for excitement. With five IP, he’s currently sporting a 1.80 ERA, with seven strikeouts. Most importantly: he’s healthy!