2017 Braves Season Preview: Dansby Swanson

Kicking off our Atlanta Braves player season previews is starting shortstop, Dansby Swanson

When the Braves traded for former number-one overall pick Dansby Swanson, the entire Braves future changed forever. Some might say that December 9th, 2015 was the best day of their lives, and I would not say that it’s a stretch.

As he approaches his first full season in the bigs, Swanson seems locked in and ready to take the league by storm.

2016 Recap 

2016 was an interesting season for Swanson, which included him playing at three different levels in the Braves system. After dominating in Single-A ball, Swanson played a half season in Double-A. As Braves shortstop Erick Aybar kept struggling, they decided to trade Aybar away, thus opening up a spot for Swanson.

At the time of his call-up, Swanson had an impressive slash line, hitting .275/.362/.426 to go along with nine home runs and 55 RBI within the Braves minor league systems.

Once he appeared in Atlanta, Swanson made an immediate impact.

He looked mature at the plate, posting an above average 9.0% walk rate. He also hit the ball extremely well, finishing the season with a .302 average and a .383 BABIP. In addition to those numbers, Swanson added three HR and 17 RBI.

2017 Steamer Projections 

Swanson’s small taste of the bigs in 2016 was impressive, but does everyone buy into it?

As I take a look at Swanson’s Steamer Projections, it seems that they do not. Steamer projects for Swanson to take a slight trip back down to Earth, finishing the season hitting .259/.322/.399 with 13 HR, 57 RBI and 66 runs scored.

Some of you may be thinking this is wildly off, but in my opinion, it isn’t.

Swanson is a perennial All-Star, I love everything about him. Although, I’d be very surprised to see him repeat his 2016 performance at the plate.

For starters, his .383 BABIP is unsustainable. To put that in perspective, Mike Trout‘s BABIP sat around .371 last season. With that said, I do think Swanson will hit for a better average and score more runs.

I believe Swanson will hit around .275 this season and scoring more runs this season, as he is expected to hit in the two-hole ahead of Freddie Freeman and Matt Kemp.

Steamer did get the home run numbers correct as 13 HR is about his cap right now in my opinion.

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What Could Go Wrong?

Aside from injury, a few things could go wrong for Swanson.

With any young player, we see adjustments made by opposing teams. Swanson is only 38 games in, so he still has a lot to learn. Worst case scenario, we see Swanson go through a growth spurt. His BABIP drops dramatically which causes his average to suffer, while also repeating his 23% strikeout rate.

Swanson’s defense was also subpar last season, as he had six errors in 37 games. I attribute this to nerves and the higher level of competition, but what if it continued?

Last season Swanson was on pace for 26 errors, which would have lead the MLB at the shortstop position.

What Could Go Right?

The question answered should be, “what can’t go right?”

The ceiling for Swanson is high, MVP contender high. Best case scenario, Swanson breaks out. Swanson maintains his average, hitting above .300 with a high OBP. Swanson also keeps his minor league stolen base pace, stealing over 20 bags.

Hitting second in the order ahead benefits him, as Swanson scores over 100 runs easily. I see this all as a real possibility, as we’re seeing Swanson see the ball well right now in Spring Training.

Next: Braves Cut Eight Players on Wednesday

Dansby Swanson is the Atlanta Braves top prospect for a reason, and the Braves are lucky to have him.

Although I had to detail the possible bad things for Swanson, I see nothing but good for years to come.

My prediction for Swanson this year is for him to hit around .275 with 10 HR. I also expect him to score at least 80 runs, the lineup behind him is good enough for him to put up that amount of runs.

Dansby doing all of this, along with about 15 steals will be a great start for his young career. Hopefully leading to a NL Rookie of the Year award.

Get ready Braves fan, we got our sneak peak last season; now it’s time for the show.