Feb 15, 2017; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves shoes sit on the field during MLB spring training workouts at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 15, 2017; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves shoes sit on the field during MLB spring training workouts at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /
2015 draftee Matt Withrow made a big impression in high-A with the Atlanta Braves system in his first full season. What is ahead for 2017?
Player Profile
The Atlanta Braves drafted Withrow out of Texas Tech in 2015.
Withrow was drafted out of high school in Texas by the Texas Rangers in the 37th round of the 2012 draft. He chose instead to honor his commitment to Texas Tech.
After a very up and down career with Texas Tech, Withrow was selected by the Braves in the 6th round of the 2015 draft. Withrow started his college career as a starter, but by his senior year, he was primarily a reliever.
The Braves sent Withrow to advanced rookie Danville in the Appalachian League for the rest of 2015 after he signed. He made 13 starts there, with a 3.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.66% walk rate, and 16.75% strikeout rate over 48 innings.
Withrow skipped completely over low-A Rome to high-A Carolina in the Carolina League in 2016. His season started off very well and ended very well, with a rough middle.
Withrow was eased into his starting in 2016, which helped his performance in April. A tthe end of April, he’d only thrown 11 1/3 innings over 3 starts, but he did own a 0.79 ERA.
Having to work his way through the lineup a second time was found to be more of a challenge for Withrow, and that was seen in May as he stretched out to deeper outings, posting a 5.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 5 starts and 25 1/3 innings.
On May 26th, Withrow threw an easy 6 innings, throwing 92 pitches. Beginning with that start and going forward, he made 18 starts, throwing 90 innings, posting a 3.60 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 12.6% walk rate, and 27.25% strikeout rate.
What was very interesting to me is that Withrow’s attitude on the mound is notable and a definite positive. He had a game in July where it just was clear from the get-go that it was not his day.
He walked 2 of the first three hitters he faced, and the cap of the first inning was allowing a grand slam home run to Indians prospect Francisco Mejia, who is an excellent contact hitter, but has minimal power.
That sort of stuff just happened continually, yet he was offered to come in twice, once on the mound, and once in the dugout between innings, per two reports I received this offseason, but he declined, because the bullpen had thrown a ton of innings the previous day in a double header and were drained.
He stuck it out, and his final line in that one start was 3 innings, 6 hits, 6 walks, 4 strikeouts, 11 runs allowed.
I heard from those sources that his role in the rotation changed with that game, and from there, his results were incredible: 34 innings, 1.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 13.67% walk rate, and 32.37% strikeout rate.
Overall, his numbers were 25 appearances, 120 2/3 innings, 3.80 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, a 12.83% walk rate, and a 24.72% strikeout rate.
Size – Withrow is listed at 6’5″ and 235 pounds, and he looks that for sure. He strikes an imposing pose on the mound, pulling his cap over his brow to give the hitter no real view of his eyes as he focuses in on the plate.
Delivery – Withrow’s delivery had me thinking a ton of another former Texan, Roger Clemens.
He brings his knee to chest high, and then he lunges forward from that point with force in his sizable frame, releasing from a high 3/4 arm slot. It’s not an explosively fast lunge, but a powerful lunge in force generated by the move.
Withrow gets into his legs well in his delivery, but one issue that you do see is that from that top of his delivery, often he ends up with varied force in that push toward the plate, meaning his foot lands differently.
I did note that his release point was consistent in his delivery, but with the foot placement, his release was at a different angle to the plate, which led to different issues with his command control.
One thing to note is that at the end of his season with Carolina, he dialed back his velocity just a hair for more command/control, and that seemed to lead to better foot placement as well.
Control (45) – Currently, I would put a tick below-average control on Withrow’s control figures, but as you can see from his results at the end of the season, working with the Braves staff over the season saw some progress in that regard.
He could work well to a 50 or even 55 grade if that progress can be maintained going forward, and that could allow him to work well as a starter.
Pitches
Fastball (60) – Withrow has a tremendous fastball in how heavy the pitch is, and I was tempted to even go a tick higher, but chose to stay here for now.
He sits 91-94 with the fastball and can touch 96-97. He was reported to hit 97-98 in short bursts out of the bullpen in college.
The ball comes from his high 3/4 arm slot and his 6’5 slot, giving him good plane already, but the way he throws the pitch is just ridiculously heavy.
He gets very good late sink on the pitch, even if the pitch doesn’t show a lot of run to either side.
I did note that his ball up the ladder when he was landing well in his delivery was a pitch that was an infield fly most of the time as hitters just couldn’t drive it for any distance.
However, when the delivery is off, his fastball often trailed and “hung” up in the zone.
Change Up (50) – Withrow is working on his change, but it’s a very intriguing pitch, at the very least. The velocity sits in the low-80s on the pitch, giving him good velocity separation.
He also has an interesting break in behavior on the pitch as the pitch works like his sinking fastball when he works it waist high, getting good late sink, but working low in the zone, he gets more hard bite like his slider.
Curve Ball (50) – No one I’ve seen has recorded this, but it seemed to me that Withrow threw what appeared out of hand as a hard curve, with minimal loop ahead of the plate, but more of a looping fall than the straight break his slider would get. This as a secondary look was near impossible for hitters to square or even make contact with.
Slider (55) – Of his off speed stuff, the slider is the premier pitch.
Withrow sat in the low-80s with the pitch, but touched 84-85 on multiple occasions with his slider, giving him excellent velocity on the pitch.
The best part of the pitch is that his arm action is nearly identical on all his pitches, and his slider looks similar to his fastball until the very end when it breaks much more sharp than the fastball, so many hitters swung right over the pitch or hit the very top of the ball, pounding it into the ground.
MLB Player Comp
I mentioned in my September write-up on Withrow that I see a lot of Jason Hammel in what Withrow offers.
The two are similar in size, with Hammel going 6’6″ and 225 pounds with Withrow listed at 6’5″ and 235.
They also have a similar pitch mix with Hammel working with a hard curve similar to what I saw with Withrow.
Many may feel like that’s a knock on Hammel, but he just signed a 2 year, $18M contract. Hammel has been a solid guy to be as a #4 starter in a rotation, but injury issues have plagued him.
Interestingly, one reason Withrow was available for the Braves at the pick he was out of Texas Tech was his lengthy injury history at Texas Tech, so there may also be some similarity there as well.
Hammel has been a guy with a 4.42 career ERA and 1.35 WHIP with a 18.5% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate.
Withrow will likely open with AA Mississippi this season, and if he continues the progress he made at the end of the season, he could be a fast mover or a very good trade piece as a future back-end starter.
If the change never comes around, the fastball/slider combo is lethal enough to be a very solid reliever.
