May 14, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A general view of a Atlanta Braves cap and glove on the field prior to a game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
May 14, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A general view of a Atlanta Braves cap and glove on the field prior to a game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /
Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried pitched a full season in return from Tommy John surgery in 2016. Is he set to rocket up the system in 2017?
Player Profile
The Atlanta Braves focused on getting Fried as part of their trade of Justin Upton after the 2014 deal, knowing they would have to be patient and wait until 2016 to see him.
Fried was drafted 7th overall by the San Diego Padres in 2012 out of high school in California. He was a high school friend and competitor with Lucas Giolito, and many felt it was a legit question on who was the better pitcher in high school.
The Padres started Fried with their Arizona Rookie League team. He made ten appearances, throwing 17 2/3 innings, allowing 3.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a 6/17 BB/K ratio. After the year, he received prospect ranking notice, rated #46 by Baseball America, #53 by MLB.com, and #61 by Baseball Prospectus.
Fried spent the entire 2013 season in the full-season low-A Midwest League with Fort Wayne. He made 23 starts, throwing 118 2/3 innings, posting a 3.49 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and a 56/100 BB/K ratio.
After that season, he was rated as the #53 prospect by Baseball America, #43 by MLB.com, and #55 by Baseball Prospectus.
The Padres held Fried back in their extended spring in 2014, hoping his elbow could be healthy, but after 5 combined appearances between the Arizona Rookie League and Midwest League, he succumbed to Tommy John. In those 5 starts, he threw 10 2/3 innings, with a 5.06 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and a 5/10 BB/K ratio.
After sitting out the entire 2015 season to heal, Fried opened 2016 with low-A Rome in the South Atlantic League. The Braves wanted Fried to spend an entire season at a level along with getting work on his mechanics and approach to get him ready for future success in the organization.
Fried did struggle some opening the year as he made those mechanical changes, and on June 1st, he sat with a line of 10 starts, 48 1/3 innings, 5.21 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 28/40 BB/K ratio.
He then went on a tear until coming up with a midseason injury (while the Braves are tight-lipped in the minor leagues about injuries, there were some rumors that this was more about limiting Fried’s innings on the season by giving him a break). Fried threw 34 innings in that time with a 1.06 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a 11/44 BB/K ratio.
Coming back from that time away led to some rust over his next two starts, but Fried finished the season with 20 strikeouts over his last two regular season starts and then dominated in the postseason over two starts.
The final two regular season starts put with the two postseason starts add up to 25 1/3 innings, 2.49 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a crazy 7/44 BB/K ratio.
Overall on the regular season, he made 21 appearances, throwing 103 innings, with a 3.93 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 47/112 BB/K ratio.
Size – Fried is listed at 6’4 and 185. He could be a few pounds heavier than that, but he has a lean build, and he does have long legs and arms on his 6’4 frame.
Delivery – Fried stays fairly tall throughout his delivery. He starts by turning his body toward the plate without much of a step back.
Fried takes a slow lift with his knee to waist level, and then he takes a long stride toward home plate with his long legs, snapping his hips toward the plate as his lead leg hits the landing point.
While he typically stayed consistent in his 3/4 arm slot, I did note that his landing spot varied, and he tended to alter his upper body angle in his delivery when that happened, so the arm came through the same, but the ball came out at a different angle all the same as a guy who would lose his arm slot.
One thing of personal concern within Fried’s delivery is that he is fairly rigid in his upper body throughout his delivery until the ball is out of hand. That can help him to utilize his legs for power and other beneficial things, but it can also lead to some concerns in command and control that may not be able to be resolved while still holding that level of rigidity.
One thing of note for Fried is that he has a very solid pick off move that absolutely froze multiple hitters this season, even once on second base (though he didn’t get the out).
Control (50) – Adam Wainwright is the guy I quote on this often, but he’s by no means the originator of the line, but as a pitcher, it’s common that after TJS, in year 1 back, a pitcher recovers his velocity, and in year 2 he recovers his command.
Fried really worked on his approach last year, and he truly did struggle to hit his spots at time. From my view, it really didn’t have to do with a poor repeatability in his delivery like many guys with control inconsistency have.
In his last couple of starts on the regular season and definitely in his postseason starts, he really showed improved command, and that was impressive within his first year and could be an excellent harbinger of what is to come.
Pitches
Fastball (65) – In terms of pure velocity, there are few with Fried’s velocity from the left side. Fried was exhibiting 92-94 on the fastball, touching 96-97 consistently at the top end, and he even had a few reported pitches in the 98-99 range!
The fastball showed excellent location up and down in the zone, but he did struggle some with controlling the natural glove-side cut of the pitch, especially in the lower half of the zone, but that really could be as much a part of his surgery recovery as anything.
Change Up (50) – One of the mechanical things the Braves worked with Fried on this year was a bit of a “tell” with his change where he showed the pitch with his arm motion before releasing.
He’s made some strides in that area, but the big issue in the pitch now has become commanding the pitch as he often had control of the pitch by putting it in the zone, but he’d miss the catcher’s target into the meat of the zone, and a change in the meat of the zone is essentially a batting practice pitch.
Curve Ball (60) – Fried shows two movements to his curve. The one that you’ll see put into a .gif is the big breaking curve that works 11-5. That curve comes in with the slowest velocity of anything he throws and is near impossible for a hitter to square up, leading to a ton of swing and miss or grounders.
His second grip is the one that’s probably more effective as a pure strikeout pitch, and that’s thrown with a more direct break in the same 11-5 direction, but breaking from about the waist of the hitter to his mid-shin, which gives a sort of slurve look to the pitch.
That second look is thrown hard, and in multiple starts, I never noted that particular pitch put into the outfield, even on a weak pop up. Even getting it into the air for an infield pop seems an accomplishment.
MLB Player Comp
While he has a touch more in the tank on the top end, Fried does have a similar build and a similar approach on the mound to Cole Hamels.
Hamels has a similar frame (6’4, 190 is Hamels listed size), and though Hamels features a four-seam, two-seam, and a cut fastball, he does still feature the fastball/curve/change primary three pitch with change in how he moves the fastball being the added pitches in his repertoire.
Hamels, like Fried, has very calm, repeatable mechanics, and frankly, early on, Hamels had a bit of work he had to do with his change to make it more effective overall.
Fried will be an interesting guy to see where the Braves place him this year. It was understandable to stay at one level for all of 2016 to get his bearings coming back from injury.
It would not surprise me at all to see the team challenge Fried by sending him to AA to open 2017, but he could also open in high-A with a quick promotion intention to AA with someone like Kolby Allard having the same plan, starting at low-A with a quick promotion to take his place.
