Q/A About Atlanta Braves' Pursuit of Chris Sale

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Every off-season seems to include a Rumor That Won’t Die. This year it involves the Braves’ pursuit of some ace pitcher. But what are the implications if Coppy actually pulls it off?

Jerry Crasnick is the one fueling this fire about the Atlanta Braves this morning:

The #Braves still have interest in Chris Sale and Chris Archer, even after adding Colon, Dickey and Garcia. They prefer Sale over Archer.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 2, 2016

Crasnick went on to note that the Braves are getting numerous hits on Ozzie Albies, though the team is (a) reluctant to trade him in any deal; and we’re also hearing that (b) it doesn’t seem that either the White Sox or Rays are among those asking… which is interesting.

But let’s suppose that somehow, some way, Sale becomes a Brave. Let’s look at the implications:

The Price of Admission

First, let’s look at the latest on the asking price. This from ESPN’s Jayson Stark yesterday:

Chris Sale: We’re hearing the same grumbling about the White Sox’s price tag this winter as we heard last July. One exec described them as asking for “the Shelby Miller deal,” plus at least two additional pieces. Which means every club’s offer needs to start with its No. 1 prospect and then pile on from there. So why, you ask, would any team pay that?

Braves have what it takes in terms of prospects to do Sale deal I hear. But so far, like the others, they haven't met price
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 3, 2016

Can’t argue much with the price except for one point: the Shelby Miller deal was based on 1 GM being fleeced at a weak moment in which he thought going “All In” was the right move. That deal was an aberration.

It could have worked, but the cost was way out of line with Arizona’s future needs… and of course that GM is now no longer employed.

With that in mind, using the Miller trade as a starting point probably is about right for Sale, given equal contractual control, affordability and the fact that Sale is better…maybe about right if you are allowed to convince people that Coppy’s Coup should not become a precedent for all future pitching deals.

Regardless of what you, I, or anyone else might be thinking about the merits of a trade for Chris Sale, the Braves appear to be continuing to engage the White Sox… so perhaps no one has metaphorically hung up the phone yet.

So with all of that as a backdrop, let’s engage in a little Q&A session about this rumor.

Q: Why Would the Braves Do This (sell their prospects for 1 guy)?

The mantra coming from the Braves over the past year+ has been this:

Stockpile prospects to create a ‘pipeline’ of talent to build a sustainable competitive run for multiple years.
Wait until we’re “ready” to spend farm surpluses.

So this is counter to all of those statements, right? Well… maybe.

In the early 1990’s, the Braves made it all the way to the World Series in 1991 and 1992 with some great pitching from a couple of youngsters who are now in the Hall of Fame. In 1993, they doubled-down by signing an ace – Greg Maddux. It ended up taking 3 seasons to get to the Promised Land… and Fred McGriff… but Maddux was added to be one of those final pieces.

If the Braves are seriously going to push for Chris Sale (or Chris Archer), then it is a clear sign that this formula from 25 years ago is being revisited and that they truly want to make a serious playoff run with him.

Also, we’ll ultimately have to wait and see – if this actually happens – what is given up and what damage is made to that prospect pipeline. If Coppolella gets his way, he could achieve all goals simultaneously.

Q: What Do the White Sox Want?

Aside from the quote on the prior page, if the Southsiders do this tear down that they seem to have threatened for a couple of seasons now, it would be for young talent to reboot their farm system. It might not be a total wipeout like the Braves did, but enough talent to give them options for the future.

Immediate needs would include:

Center field – to get Adam Eaton moved to a corner
Third base – since Todd Frazier is on his last year (and could be moved, too).
Pitching.
Random prospects

White Sox fans, of course would say ‘Give me your top six prospects’. That’s never happened before – and won’t here, either.

Q: Who could the Braves give up?

One message we’ve heard – Dansby Swanson is not on the table. If Chicago is going to insist on him, then I expect conversations to be short.

There is similar talk about Albies, though that message is not quite as clear, such that it is likely Atlanta would be willing to move Ozzie Albies for Sale only – if the White Sox would be interested (and they should be).

With Jace Peterson, Sean Rodriguez and Travis Demeritte already available or otherwise coming, that might not be such a horrible pill to swallow.

Beyond that, nearly every upper-tiered starting pitcher could be made available, as there is a second wave to follow. One or two of that wave could even be offered.

Since the 2017 rotation is now covered, Foltynewicz or Wisler could also be on the table.

The White Sox need to improve their outfield defense, and Mallex Smith would be ideal for them. They probably want Ender Inciarte, though. However, I think the Braves saw enough of Inciarte last year to make that a show-stopper request.

Rio Ruiz would make sense as well, though Atlanta would have to figure out if losing him is tolerable in the short term. More on that below.

At that point, it’s a matter of volume, fit, and comfort level for both sides.

Personal suspicion: Coppy is trying to get his done without involving Swanson, Inciarte, and most of the ‘next wave’ young pitchers. Other than that, anything goes.

Q: Is this just an attempt to make Washington spend more to get Sale?

It might ultimately end up looking that way, but I seriously doubt that there is intent from the Braves to do so. The stakes are too high for a game of chicken like this. Bid once too many times and the ploy fails.

It’s also not the way we’ve observed the Braves doing business. In fact, about the only teams I might be able to accuse of engaging in such practices are the Yankees and Red Sox of times in the past.

I’ll also throw in that I don’t believe the Braves are trying to keep Sale out of Washington either. If Coppy is doing this, it’s for selfish reasons… to improve the Braves.

Q: What Would a Sale Trade Do to the Payroll?

With his (still remarkably ‘affordable’) $12,000,000 salary, Sale would be the second highest paid pitcher on the club, tie with Jaime Garcia, and a large sandwich behind Bartolo Colon ($12.5m).

The Braves’ payroll would jump to an all-time high of $125 million… depending on other moves that might need to be made.

The team would certainly do it for Sale, but uncertain about anything more.

Q: What Would the Rotation Look Like With Sale?

Chris Sale, Julio Teheran, Jaime Garcia, R.A. Dickey, and Bartolo Colon in some order: two southpaws, two right-handers, and a knuckle-baller. That’ll work.

Pushed back… or possibly traded away in the carnage of The Deal would be Mike Foltynewicz, Matt Wisler, and Josh Collmenter. I’m just going to guess that Collmenter becomes the “sixth pitcher” with the other pair of youngsters perhaps both being dealt to Chicago, but that’s part of the pitfall in trying to guess what the Braves might be inclined to do here: key pieces would have to be involved at some level.

Note that by rule, neither Dickey or Colon would be traded away before June – to anybody. These previous moves are independent of any pursuit of sale, but only Jaime Garcia would be tradeable before June 15.

Another note: If Sale becomes a Brave, the team might have to consider another veteran free agent spending spree for 2018 if the rotation has gaps. But that would be the easy task, relatively speaking.

Q: Shouldn’t the Braves trade Teheran to make for an easier deal?

No – for 2 reasons.

It’s counterproductive. If the Braves are really ‘going for it’, the removal of Teheran from the rotation damages that goal.
The White Sox need volume in addition to quality in such a trade. They already have a guy better than Teheran, so sending him back doesn’t really address their goals – especially if they can get, say three more young guys instead.

I suppose the Sox could do this and then try and flip Teheran elsewhere, but that’s delving into the unknown to some extent. Just a lot cleaner to go with one deal for what you want.

Q: Shouldn’t the Braves go after Chris Archer or Jose Quintana instead?

Archer: his cost to obtain would be just about as bad as Sale, given the longer period of control. But he’s also not quite at Sale’s level of expertise and is coming off of a ‘down’ year for him.

This is why the Braves seem to be putting most of their effort toward Sale.

Quintana: He’s good, yes. But with just 2 years of control and a notch below Sale, he’s not as attractive a target. If you’re going to break the prospect bank, 2 years just doesn’t feel like it would be enough, especially when some of the players you’re giving up would still have 6 years of control.

It appears that Atlanta is going at this with the attitude of ‘Sale or nothing.’

Q: Would Adding Sale Be Enough?

More from Tomahawk Take

If Sale is obtained, a 3 year clock begins ticking and the goal is getting him is obviously ‘going to a World Series.’ So you’d then want to ask…

Sale and Todd Frazier?
Evan Longoria? (really doubtful on this one, given EL’s contract and this would mean another prospect laden deal)
A run at Justin Turner? Much more possible, though at a cost.

If the Braves intend to “go for it”, then you’d have to think that such additional moves to augment the third base position would also be on the table.

But there are some issues:

In Turner, the move would be a budget buster – MLBTR predicts $17 million annually for 5 years to sign him. Add Sale and Turner and we’re suddenly over $140 million for the payroll. Wow.
With either Longoria or Turner, third base would be blocked for quite a while. Unless you think that Adonis Garcia, Rio Ruiz and/or Austin Riley are all dealt away via trade, then adding these guys with longer contracts makes little sense.
With Frazier, it’s only a single-year commitment, which almost makes less sense since the Braves would have to solve third base again after 2018.
If the Braves do not upgrade the position, then they are believing that Garcia and maybe Ruiz are sufficient. Not too many would be convinced.

Next: The Non-Tender Calls

One final thought. Of all the reasons for pursuing Sale, here’s the dumbest one I’ve seen: ‘Sale lives in Naples, FL – close to one of the possible landing sites for a new Braves Spring Training home.’

Why is this dumb? Because if this happens, Sale’s last current contract year (counting options) is 2019… the first year a new Spring venue would be open for business.

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Q/A About Atlanta Braves’ Pursuit of Chris Sale