General Manager Meetings are over… territory has been marked out among them, and deals are starting to form. However, this is one deal that will not happen for the Braves.
Honestly, I think there’s a lot better case that could be made for the Justin Verlander rumor we seem to have started in these pages. After all, the Atlanta Braves are pursuing pitching, and are/were interested in a front-line starter among the acquisitions.
That speculation could at least be justified. This, on the other hand… not so much.
Permit to quote directly from Nick Carfardo, long-time sports reporter from the Boston Globe:
"1. Jose Bautista, OF/DH, free agent — The Red Sox are a potential landing spot. Bautista loves Boston, loves Fenway, hits well there (.972 career OPS), and has strong relationships with John Farrell and Brian Butterfield from their Toronto days. Also on the radar are Texas, Houston, Baltimore, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Atlanta. The feeling is Bautista won’t accept Toronto’s qualifying offer and that he will get a multiyear deal somewhere."
That’s a really powerful radar you’ve got there, Nick.
In fact, if the Braves are on it, I imagine that you can also see all 30 major league clubs in the same image since there are a bunch of teams that I’d also characterize as “not a candidate for Bautista” along with the Atlanta Braves.
Okay, since this has become a thing, let’s go ahead and list all of the reasons why it makes no sense whatsoever for the Braves:
- He’s already 36 years old.
- He can’t DH and his defensive rating in 2016 was -12.4 (though, for reference purposes, Matt Kemp‘s was -21.3… his best since 2013).
- He’s going to sign at something in the neighborhood of 3 years and $60 million.
- Atlanta would have to trade Kemp or Markakis to do that.
- 2016 saw his lowest production since 2009 (.817 OPS, 122 wRC+). Sure, that’s pretty solid, but the Braves’ corner OF’s pretty well matched this (.855 for Kemp, .744 for Markakis) and Kemp is still just 32 years old.
- He will have a Qualifying Offer tag hanging around his neck and that Braves will not pass up their 2nd round draft pick (guessing: around 38th overall) to sign his.
Add to this… the number of things that would have to happen for the Braves to even want to entertain the question:
- Trade Matt Kemp and all of his salary… or possibly Nick Markakis and all of his contract.
- No one else goes for Bautista in the meantime
- He’s so bereft of offers that he has to accept a National League deal.
- He’s so bereft of offers that he has to accept a lowball, 2 year deal for the Braves
- The Mets don’t take him first.
All of that together just makes the whole thing so much less than speculation – it’s just not realistic in any reasonable scenario.
For all of those other clubs mentioned… there’s at least a chance. St. Louis less so; the Giants perhaps. Houston… need a Left Fielder, so that’s at least plausible, money aside.
Yes, it’s a slow news day after the Colon signing. But Bautista to the Braves? No. Not going to happen.