May 14, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A general view of a Atlanta Braves cap and glove on the field prior to a game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
May 14, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A general view of a Atlanta Braves cap and glove on the field prior to a game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /
The Atlanta Braves selected Patrick Weigel as their organizational pitcher of the year. What happened with Weigel this season?
Who Is He?
Patrick Weigel was originally drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2014 draft out of Oxnard College in California before transferring to the University of Houston, where the Braves drafted him from in 2015 in the 7th round. Baseball America’s draft report on Weigel mentioned his 99 MPH fastball, but also reported that he had an average slider, below average curve, and a change up that was unusable along with bad control. To quote their report, “…you have to worry that a pitcher who couldn’t earn the closer job at Houson will struggle to earn a significant role in pro ball either.”
The Braves bucked that trend, something they did with a host of hard-throwing college pitchers they drafted in the 4th through 10th rounds in 2015, by making Weigel a starter in pro ball. He went to advanced rookie Danville, and while the numbers weren’t amazing, he definitely turned some heads with his fastball and much better secondary stuff than expected as he made 14 starts, going 51 2/3 innings with a 4.53 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and a 26/49 BB/K ratio, so the walk rate was not good, but there was room for growth. Weigel went to fall instructs and got rave reviews for the work he put in there, and the word coming in this spring was all about how great he looked.
The Braves took note, sending him to their loaded rotation in Rome, where he unexpectedly became the staff ace. With Rome this season, he threw 129 innings in 22 appearances with a 2.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a 47/135 BB/K ratio. The Braves felt so strongly about his performance that they skipped him straight over high-A Carolina to AA Mississippi in the heat of a playoff chase, and he simply improved his performance, hurling 20 2/3 innings with a 2.18 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, posting an 8/17 BB/K ratio. Weigel also just hurled one of the best pitching performances of the season in his playoff start for Mississippi, going 7 shutout innings, allowing 3 hits and 2 walks, striking out 8 hitters.
To take a good look at Weigel, I reviewed six of his starts, three with Rome and three with Mississippi. In those six starts, he went for 40 1/3 innings, a 2.01 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and a 10/39 BB/K ratio.
Size/Delivery
Weigel is listed at 6’6 and 220 pounds. He is certainly physically mature, and as he turned 22 during the season, that’s not a surprising thing for him to be physically where he will be long-term. He’s built with long arms and legs and uses these both well in his delivery.
Weigel comes from a low 3/4 arm slot, and where I would compare his arm slot to is where you would normally see a third baseman sling the ball across the diamond from. He has a quick delivery, pulling his left leg over past his right knee, which generates extra torque in his delivery (and likely extra velocity). He repeats that arm slot very well with every pitch.
Out of the stretch, one of the major differences you’ll see is that he does not get the leg back as deep, but he seems to tuck his body in tighter and then explode out of that to generate the same force and velocity that he gets out of his wind up.
Pitches
The signature pitch that everyone knows on Weigel is the fastball. It’s a brilliant pitch, touching over triple digits in short bursts (reports of 101-102 at the Southern League All-Star game this summer), but he’s been able to sustain upper 90s deep into games. The big thing with the fastball is not just the velocity, it’s the surprising command of the pitch that he has. Most guys coming from that low 3/4 arm slot struggle with a “sling” motion of their fastball and even if they have control of the pitch into the zone, they cannot command from that angle. Weigel commands the pitch well from the slot, and working with Joseph Odom at AA Mississippi (one of the better defensive catchers in the Braves system) and Willians Astudillo (one of the best framing catchers in all of the minor leagues according to Baseball Prospectus’ metrics this season) has brought out that command even more so. The fastball has some natural arm side run and sink, and if he struggles with control or command, it’s typically that the run is too much too the arm side.
The slider has a solid 12-6 break, but more from about thigh high to the knee cap when he’s really going well with the pitch. I’ve seen multiple velocity reports that have the slider in the upper 80s, but the more frequent reports have it sitting in the lower 80s. The break seems to come late, and he spots the slider well to the arm side of the plate and middle of the plate.
Weigel’s curve is probably the pitch that has taken the biggest step forward this season in both effectiveness of the pitch and his control of the pitch. It’s not a looping curve like many in the system, but it’s a hard curve variety, and it matches with his slider in a way that leaves many batters flailing. The curve has a bit of 11-5 break to it, but he seems to move the pitch well across the zone. He does well generating velocity on the pitch to really have the slider and curve be tough to distinguish until late as well.
The change is a pitch that was graded as below average by many coming into the season, at best. However, in my viewing, the biggest issue in his change is a lack of movement. He has good repetition of arm movement and speed with the change. He also has more control than command with the pitch, which leaves it still with room to grow, but I’d certainly grade it as an average offering at least right now.
I know this will likely send people into very odd places of dreaming on Weigel, but I’ve been lucky enough to be in person for a Max Scherzer no-hitter (the near perfect game where Jose Tabata leaned into a pitch with 2 outs in the 9th to ruin the perfect game) and a one-hitter. When I see Weigel at his best, I see that same type of pitcher. They have similar physicality and pitch mix along with similar pitch velocity even.
Obviously, Weigel’s not at that level right now, but to be fair, Scherzer wasn’t at that level when he broke into the major leagues, either. His big step forward came when he went from a guy who featured a three-pitch mix to adding in a hard curve like Weigel already throws. Scherzer has tremendous command, which is a thing that Weigel can keep working on, but in all seriousness, that’s the type of ceiling you can consider with the pitch mix, frame, and velocity of Weigel.
While just being drafted in 2015, Weigel did turn 22 in the 2016 season, so he’s not exactly “young” by prospect measures, so it would not surprise me at all if the Braves bring Weigel to major league spring training next season and then start him in AA Mississippi. With continued hard work on his command and change up, we could be seeing Weigel during the 2017 season.
