Finish the Task: Atlanta Braves Should Go Get Lucroy Now

The stunning rejection of Cleveland by Jonathan Lucroy this morning provides a huge opening for the Braves to engage and acquire the best available Catcher for 2017… and longer.

As of 30 minutes ago, the Rangers look to be the new front-runners in the sweepstakes for Jonathan Lucroy.  MLBTR reports that they are certainly at the forefront of “serious” discussions, with the Mets being “out” but “others” still involved.

The Rangers are certainly thinking big here:

The Braves need to change the dialog and flip this negotiation in their favor.

One interesting quote attributed to Lucroy this morning suggested that he was more interested in a ‘long-term’ solution for a new team.

As part of the no-trade-clause negotiation, Cleveland was asked for an immediate contract change – to tear up that 2017 contract option and allow Lucroy to become a free agent in 2-3 more months so that he could negotiate such a long-term deal.  Naturally Cleveland balked at this, seeing what they were giving up.

I would submit that this situation represents an engraved invitation for teams to jump in that would likewise be interested in keeping Lucroy for the long term… perhaps 4-5 seasons and not just through 2017.

Why Atlanta?

This is fairly straightforward.

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• Lucroy is the best available catching candidate – now or for the foreseeable future (unless you believe Atlanta can actually pry away a premium minor league backstop prospect from another club).
• Having acquired Matt Kemp, Atlanta now has price surety on this need for next season (assuming he is kept… that’s not entirely a known quantity, but that assumption is a key part of the premise to this scenario)… and the price is “only”  $8.5 million beyond what they were already committed to spend on Hector Olivera previously.
• The remaining tasks are:  upgrade third base and catcher
• We now know the price of this particular catcher:  3 prospects and a contract extension for Lucroy.  He is “gettable” now – no need to wait and see if a free agent will take your money.
• Atlanta is not on Lucroy’s no-trade list.

The Brewers were set to receive the following players from Cleveland:

• C Francisco Mejia (4th ranked in Cleveland’s prospect list; 70th overall)
• SS Yu-Cheng Chang (10th)
• OF Greg Allen (20th)
• a 4th “lesser” prospect

We recently went over the better veteran catchers that are available and also discussed Brian McCann more specifically.  There are difficulties with acquiring any of these, but Lucroy is easier than most – if the Braves are willing to jump in and trump the Rangers’ hand.

A similar package of prospects to what Cleveland offered might amount to something akin to Sean Newcomb (#3), Max Fried (#11), and C Lucas Herbert (#27).  That’s expensive, but tolerable… and other pitchers could certainly be mixed or matched in.

Lucroy himself might like the idea of a 5 year/$20 million deal starting next year – tearing up that current option year. Certainly his agent would point out that doing so today at age 30 will undoubtedly be more lucrative than exploring the free agent market after another season.

Are you concerned about such a 5-year deal?  Well, you still have Flowers available to support him… and I’m sure he wouldn’t mind sticking around for a bit either.  And Lucroy himself is still performing at a very high level at this point… unlike other options like Brian McCann.

Price Points

Atlanta is said to have $50-60 million in payroll available for next season.  Between Kemp and the proposal for Lucroy, I have only advocated spending half of that.

Now you still have a lot to offer a new third baseman – or a pitcher… or whatever.  And you’ve taken the best option off the table for everyone else while showing your fans (and potential free agents) that you’re serious about trying to compete next season.

Yes, the price is “prospects plus an extension”.  If you want a minor league stud, the price will certainly be more prospects… and some that actually hurt.  If you want a lesser veteran (Derek Norris, et al), then you’ll still give up a prospect or two and get little in performance back.

The Braves just got Kemp for next to nothing.  They might be pursuing Martin Prado in the off-season: a free agent costing “only” cash.  Who else are you needing to spend your prospect “currencies” on?

Next: And Then Cash in the Bullpen

Go get ’em Coppy.  The opportunity is there.  Take it.  But you’d better hurry.