Braves are still beating the bushes for offense… and this might be one of the more surprising sources, were it to come to a trade: San Diego’s Matt Kemp.
I will admit up front… while most of the rumors we’ve heard this week sound at least plausible… this one is a head-scratcher.
Padres working hard to trade Matt Kemp and are willing to pay most of salary. The Braves are one of two teams in... https://t.co/DZWFHIBzHG
— Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) July 30, 2016
The rest of that tweet says “The Braves are one of two teams in discussions according to a Padres source.”
Okay… that’s Jim Bowden. He has some odd trade proposals when he’s writing for ESPN, but this isn’t a made-up story, it’s from a source. So is it real?
Sources confirm: #Padres working to trade Kemp. Talked to #Braves, as @JimBowden_ESPN said. ATL seeking offense. Many available options.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 30, 2016
Yikes. It is.
Okay, let’s go through the motions…
All About Matt Kemp
I almost described him as San Diego’s DH, because he’s truly not a good outfield defender any more. Yes: Kemp has hit 23 homers this season, and could hit 30 before we’re done in 2016. He’s slashing .262/.285 (ouch)/.489 for an OPS of .751.
He is under contract until 2019. I’m actually not concerned with the money, as the Dodgers are paying $3.5 million per year and the Padres would probably have to kick in at least half of the remainder, so he’d cost somewhere around $7-10 million ($21.75 million overall goes to Kemp).
My concerns are whether the bat plays, and why he’d be around for 3 more seasons.
Kemp is nearly 32 and just hasn’t been the same since his nearly-MVP season of 2011. He was hurt much of 2012 and 2013, but once back on the field full-time in 2014, his bWAR values plummeted to 1.0, 0.6, and 0.2. In more recent years, his walk rates have been dropping, which has also taken out his OBP. In addition, his hitting is slipping, down 25 points since 2014.
Kemp’s power has been maintained, though he’s not driving in as many runners. This could be a symptom of the rest of the San Diego offense, but his wRC+ scores have also dropped to something approaching average – despite a .319 hitting rate with runners in scoring position this season.
Optimists would point to his 15 homers on the road vs. just 8 at home – home being the more ‘homer-neutral’ edition of Petco Park (Petco ranks 13th so far this year; Turner Field 8th). When he hits a ball, it does tend to stay “hit”.
Creativity?
I admit it: I don’t get this inquiry on its own… unless perhaps Nick Markakis gets moved or something else (Olivera??) is involved that Bowden isn’t privy to.
UPDATE: While I was musing and typing, others have been thinking along the same lines I have:
I wonder if the Braves are thinking about a trade w/ Padres built around a Matt Kemp for Hector Olivera swap.
— gondeee (@gondeee) July 30, 2016
Regarding salary…
Next: Braves Looking for Past Stars?
It might take more than that since Olivera is owed almost $30 million overall. But if Atlanta were to acquire Kemp in such a deal, they could then flip him later at an opportune point. Even if they had to eat some cash to send him to the AL, it might still be better on the bottom line overall… and on the field.