A quick look at what has been and what might be for the rest of the Atlanta Braves’ 2016 season.
The team stats are… not terribly pretty at this point:
- Team non-pitching fWAR: 0.0 (30th)
- Team home runs: 55 (30th)
- Team batting average: .237 (30th)
- Team OBP: .300 (28th)
You get the picture. But let’s take just the past 30 days and see what those numbers look like:
- Team non-pitching fWAR: 1.8 (26th)
- Team home runs: 30 (21st)
- Team batting average: .246 (26th)
- Team OBP: .306 (27th)
Still not great by any stretch, but trending in a better direction, yes.
Gordon Beckham is back and still hitting (.333 since returning), Jace Peterson is a hitting fool (.310), Freddie Freeman (.363) is still hot.
At the same time, Ender Inciarte is definitely not hitting (.214/.280 OBP) in the last month, Erick Aybar (.261) has been cooling in recent days, Jeff Franceoru (.212) is hitting big – but only when actually hitting, and Chase d’Arnaud‘s torrid start has flamed out (.164).
What Happens in the Next 2 Weeks?
After the break, there will be 2½ weeks until the trading deadline. Here’s a list of those I believe will be gone by then… or soon thereafter:
- Erick Aybar… if not traded by August, he’ll be released around September 1st.
- A.J. Pierzynski. Somebody is going to want another catcher. The problem? Tyler Flowers‘ hand injury could put the kibosh on that.
- Jim Johnson. 0.68 ERA in the past month. Yes.
- Arodys Vizcaino. I’d call this one “50/50” right now. SOmething obviously been up with him lately… the 10.80 BB/9 speaks volumes.
- Others in the “50/50” category: Francoeur, Beckham, and (collectively) any member of the starting rotation.
I am guessing that teams will be asking about Dario Alvarez, but I’m personally hoping the Braves hang on to him: he’s not even arbitration eligible until 2019.
Regarding the rotation: Coppolella is still looking for a bat. In the right trade, I do believe he’d part with some member of the rotation.
That probably does not include Matt Wisler or Julio Teheran, but it could mean just about anyone else. Personally I’d also be squeamish about Mike Foltynewicz, but let’s just wait and see what might happen.
What Happens in the Second Half?
Most of the gauntlet has already been run. Atlanta is done with Chicago (both teams), the Dodgers, and half of the the Giants and Cardinals.
Here’s how the schedule lines up the rest of the way:
- JULY: COL, CIN, COL, MIN, PHIL
- AUG: PIT, STL, MIL, WSH, MIN, WSH, ARIZ, SFG, SDP
- SEP: PHI, WSH, NYM, MIA, WSH, NYM, MIA, PHI
- OCT: DET
Clearly, the easiest run is the rest of July. August is hit-and-miss, but not horrible (excepting the second West Coast road trip to Arizona and San Francisco.
September is almost always loaded with divisional games, so we know what we’re getting there. The end of September is also highly dependent on the motivation of the teams involved.
As for motivation, it will be interesting to see who might be called up to replace those who are traded. Yes, we want to see Swanson and Albies – and we might – but there’s also a fair chance for Omar Infante and/or Daniel Castro to return.
Hopefully, Mallex Smith‘s thumb will be healed up in time for a couple of weeks in September. And then there’s always the chance for a big trade wildcard that we weren’t looking for.
The Big Finish
Atlanta stands today at 31-58 with 73 games remaining. They have to play those at…
- 32-41 to avoid 100 losses
- 36-37 to match last season’s 67-95 record
They are also:
- 1 game behind a fading Cincinnati for the worst record
- 1½ games behind Minnesota
- 3½ behind Tampa Bay
- 6 behind the Angels
- 6½ behind the Diamondbacks, who have stumbled into the break
My guess right now? 64-98… with the second draft pick next year.
Next: We Have to Fix This!