Who is the Real Julio Teheran?
Is Julio Teheran the pitcher we endured in 2015, or the one that we rejoiced in 2013 and 2014?
Julio Teheran’s career thus far can seem a little uneven. It’s hard to put your finger on exactly who he is. That being said, I think I’ve stumbled upon something important about Julio’s struggles back in 2015. If you want to jump ahead to what I uncovered, head to Slide 2.
For the more patient reader, let’s get nostalgic and paint ourselves some context.
The 25 year old Columbian was a bona fide top flight prospect for a long time and from a young age. His numbers backed it all up as he crept through the system, eliciting drool from Braves faithful that were tuned in. He had a set back season in 2012 that seems straight away attributable to foolish mechanical tinkering by his organization, and then burst onto the scene with two above-average-to-great seasons of work. If you’re interested in a more in depth Teheran bio, check this out from Modern Pastime, then come right back.
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Then 2015 happened
I’ll be the first to express that it feels like Teheran is somehow wavering in the wind between two identities: a top of the rotation starter, and another in a long line of top pitching prospect let downs. Objectively though, the more pessimistic view of the two conclusions is based on one poor season and the memory of his brief struggles as he was on the cusp of the big leagues in 2012.
It’s news to no one that Teheran was quite bad in 2015. Not just disappointing for a guy who we handed the ball to on Opening Day. Julio was lousy in general. His ERA of 4.04 ranked 55th best out of 78 qualifying pitchers. He looked even worse through the lens of FIP, and his BABIP was identical to his 2013 rate, so we can’t dismiss his poor results by profoundly mumbling “bad luck” – as much as we’d like to.
Of course, there’s more worth including when describing Teheran’s 2015. He was maddeningly different at home and on the road. If you take only his home starts, Teheran sported the 12th best ERA among qualified starters in the bigs, taking his tea directly between Max Scherzer and Madison Bumgardner with a sparkling mark of 2.89. Pretty good company. Take only his road numbers, however, and he was dead last in both ERA and FIP.
The prudent thing to do is probably just not make too much of these splits, as Grade-A-Befuddling as they are, and just look at 2015 for what it was: a troubling season on the heels of two encouraging ones. Maybe Julio become temporarily afraid of airplanes and strangers, or some such thing.
Still, his Jekyll and Hyde 2015 does afford us the ability to isolate a sample of peak Julio and landfill Julio. Click here for an extended, nerdier analysis of Julio’s home/away splits last year. For our purposes, just take a look at the charts below, courtesy of Fangraphs. Click to expand.
A few things really jump out here. On the road, where Julio proved to be a below average pitcher in 2015, we see reduced K%, and increased OBP/WHIP, BB%, and HR/FB (% of fly balls that are home runs).
It’s not really compelling to discover that these trends led to negative pitching outcomes. It is notable that such trends are particularly bothersome for a pitcher who relies on strike outs and poorly hit fly balls, as Teheran has in his young career. Still, what we’d really like to know is:
- Why did Julio surrendered homers and base runners at his highest rates in 2015?
- Will we have do endure such performances in the future, or was it a fluke?
Click through to slide 2 on the big navy blue bar below for some answers.
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Next: Slide 2: What Should We Expect From Teheran Going Forward?