Braves Manipulation Strategy #1
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The first strategy is to pay under slot for the #3 draft pick and then pay higher for picks at #40 and #44 to players expected to go in the middle rounds that they could lock into an under-the-table deal before the draft. This was seen last year by the Houston Astros, who had an agreement with Daz Cameron, considered a top 10-15 talent in the draft to hold out until their #37 pick for a $4M bonus amount. The exact amount was unknown to everyone at the time, but it was fairly well known to those who cover the draft that Houston had a deal in place for Daz.
The Braves could work this particular strategy to sign players at both 40 and 44 that are expected to be top 10-15 players. The overall value of those first three picks is $9,587,300. Spread evenly across all three picks, that’d be a touch over $3M per pick. What I would imagine being the way the team would work the system would be to go for a guy who would take ~$4M and then use the remaining $5M+ to attempt to convince a player in that range that they will ensure that player gets money. For comparison, the #13 pick is worth ~$3.1M, the #17 pick is worth ~$2.5M, and the #30 pick is worth ~$2M.
In the most recent MLB.com Top 100 Draft Prospects, released this last week, possible bat targets ranked between 13-40 that would possibly be worth striking a deal with would be University of Florida OF Buddy Reed, Georgia high school 3B Josh Lowe, Pennsylvania high school OF Alex Kiriloff, University of Miami catcher Zack Collins, Vanderbilt University OF Bryan Reynolds, Pennsylvania high school 3B Nolan Jones, Wake Forest University 3B Will Craig, Florida high school 3B Drew Mendoza, Georgia high school OF Taylor Trammell, University of Virginia catcher Matt Thaiss, Georgia high school OF Will Benson, Virginia high school 3B Joe Rizzo, and that’s just the hitters. Pitchers like Connor Jones, Jordan Sheffield, Cal Quantrill, Robert Tyler, Zack Burdi, and Logan Shore were all ranked in that area as well. The Braves would simply need to guarantee those guys higher than anyone else would take and pick them at #40 and #44 by saving money at #3.
The difficulty in this plan is finding the right guy to take at #3. Until recently, there was some significant buzz about University of Florida LHP A.J. Puk being part of that option as his rough spring could lower his price, but he had the type of body and stuff from the left side that would be ideal to get into the Braves pitching-rich system and develop. However, after striking out 20 batters in his last two starts, Puk is heavily rumored to be the top choice of the Phillies at #1. Kyle Lewis and Corey Ray are college outfielders who were considered as possible solid options for #3, but their big seasons at the college level may price them out of the conversation. Where I see an opportunity lies among three players – Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford, and Delvin Perez, interestingly enough, the #’s 6, 7, and 8 guys on MLB.com’s list. All three are high school guys with some questions and a chance that they could slip significantly for various reasons.
If this first strategy were worked in my personal opinion, I’d pursue one of those three high school bats, then go after another high school bat and a college arm for #40 and #44. How amazing would a first three pick collection of Mickey Moniak, Will Benson, and Robert Tyler look?!
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