Tomahawk Take’s Top 20 Atlanta Braves Prospects: Just Missed
Tomahawk Take’s “Just Missed” Atlanta Braves Prospects
So, today’s post is probably a little anti-climatic. You got to see the top 5 of the list yesterday, and for many places, that’s the apex of their coverage. Instead, we at Tomahawk Take do one more day for you…
First, a few bits and pieces on the process – I started asking in early January for top 20 lists from the Tomahawk Take writers, and I had them start coming in fast and furious in the early part of February. After doing some tabulation, I put together our top 20 based on scoring the cumulatives of the top 30 lists. A few things I found interesting: first, a number of writers have differing views on including guys who spent a decent amount of time in Atlanta last season or have previous “professional” experience. For instance, Hector Olivera ranked 10th due to his overall score, but his average score on the lists he was placed on would have put him 3rd on the list. No other player had such a discrepancy from his total score to his average score. Second, there seemed to be some clear tiers in the TT writers’ eyes. Dansby Swanson and Sean Newcomb were heads and tails above all others, then there was a pretty significant drop before Aaron Blair and Ozhaino Albies were a single point apart (one of four such one-point differences on the list in placements), and there was a steady decline down to Max Fried at #13, after which there was a big drop in points down to Braxton Davidson and a gradual drop down from there. It was also interesting that some guys got left off lists entirely, yet ranked high, and others seemed to make every list, but down at the bottom, so they still ended up at the bottom of our top 20. Ryan Weber, for instance, only appeared on 3 lists, yet Rio Ruiz, who finished just one spot behind Weber in the rankings, appeared on 6 of our 8 lists.
In all, we had 30 players named on at least one list among the 8 writers who participated. I’d like to thank all the writers who did participate and especially those who took the time to write up pieces of this top 20 this week.
Next: Just Missed
Now we’ll focus on some guys who also deserve some attention in 2016. I’ve got them separated out into three pages coming up: “Just missed TT’s voting”, “Keep your eyes on in 2016”, and “On the horizon.” I hope you enjoyed the lists and keep coming back for more as we start next week a two-week series of scouting reports on minor league hitters, some featured in our top 20 and in this post, and some not, so there will be a good selection of player information about the minor leagues all the way up to opening day in Atlanta, when the focus will turn on the big league club – at least until I can turn my focus on to live game action in the minors!
Just Missed Prospects
First we’ll look at the first five that missed the list – TT’s #21-25 prospects:
Ronald Acuna
Acuna was signed by the Braves in the July 2014 international class. He was our closest prospect to the top 20, and he’s been getting a ton of comments nationally. The Braves started him in the GCL starting at 17 years old and he worked his way to Danville. Overall, he put up a line of .269/.380/.438 with 22 extra base hits and 16 stolen bases in 201 at bats. Acuna spent most of his time in center field in 2016, and he’s got good range to stay in center for the time being. Acuna will likely start 2016 in extended spring, then to Danville, and very possibly finish his 2016 as an 18 year-old in Rome.
Daniel Winkler
The Rule 5 draft pick last offseason was coming back from Tommy John Surgery, and he didn’t make his first appearance with Atlanta until September 21st. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League, but due to the requirements of the Rule 5 draft, Winkler will have to stay in Atlanta or they will have to return him to Colorado. While he was a very successful starter in Colorado, he will be working out of the bullpen with Atlanta until he gets that requirement met, then he could be shipped to Gwinnett to resume starting, though he is already 26 years old.
Lucas Herbert
Lucas Herbert was the Braves’ top pick Kolby Allard’s battery mate in high school. Known to have an excellent defensive reputation, Herbert was selected in the 2nd round by the Braves. He only got to play 3 games and have 4 at bats before badly injuring his knee. The Braves have reported no long-term concerns with the injury, though a knee injury for any position would be an issue, but a catcher even more so. He’ll likely get to start out at the GCL squad once he’s healthy and work his way up from there.
Juan Yepez
Yepez was the Braves big signing in the 2014 international class that has netted some big names already, getting a $1 million signing bonus. The Braves started the 17 year-old in the U.S. at their GCL team this year, and he produced well enough to get a promotion to advanced rookie Danville to finish the season. All told, his slash line of .299/.364/.458 looks quite solid, though there are concerns that Yepez may be restricted to first base only and that he struggled to a 6/29 BB/K ratio in 103 Danville at bats, so there’s still some work to do. He will start either back at Danville or up at Rome to start 2016.
Next: Ones To Watch
Zachary Bird
The big minor league arm acquired in the July trade with the Dodgers, the Jackson, Mississippi native was bumped up to AA to pitch in front of local fans for the M-Braves. He struggled in his three starts with Mississippi before succumbing to injury. Many have seen the hard-throwing righty as a future bullpen ace, but the Braves insist he’ll be working as a starter. It’d not be surprising to see him head to Carolina as part of his recovery to get back on his feet before taking the first opening in Mississippi’s rotation.
Prospects to Keep An Eye On in 2016
Our second group of guys will be five guys who are in need of making a big move this year, whether it be due to their age, due to performance struggles, or due to a number of other factors.
Andrew Thurman
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Thurman was one of those guys really affected by the Carolina bus crash. I put up a scouting report on him earlier this winter talking more in depth about him. After being acquired from the Astros, he pitched like a guy with a very bright future before that bus crash. At 24 years old, he’s in a rather make or break season for him, not so much in that he’d fail as a prospect because he’d be a tremendous reliever, just that there’s a huge glut of arms above him and below him, and he’s sort of sandwiched in the middle, so if he doesn’t do something to leap forward, he’ll likely get swallowed up by the group behind him.
Dustin Peterson
Peterson was acquired from the Padres in the offseason, and he made a very successful transition to the outfield, where his natural athleticism really was able to flourish. He was another who had a bad reaction to the bus crash of Carolina. He has an incredible amount of athleticism. He’s certainly not by any means in the “break” part of his overall career path as he’s only 21, but he really does need to show some success with the bat this season. He may head back to Carolina to start just to get his feet under him before moving up to AA Mississippi.
Casey Kelly
Kelly was acquired in the trade that sent away Christian Bethancourt, and there are few guys who have had a brighter prospect star over the years than Kelly who have been moved as frequently as he has. He was once a two-way star with a future as a hitter and pitcher, but he’s been a full-time pitcher now. Kelly has a very solid pitch mix that is being overlooked as people plan out the 2016 rotation, both in Atlanta and Gwinnett, but don’t sleep on him! This year could be the last he spends as a starter, however, as he may be at the point where the team moves him to the bullpen to really take advantage of his arm as he could be a dynamite closer in that role.
Robert Whalen
Whalen was simply never fully healthy in 2016, and after a few games with Carolina, he had surgery to correct issues that had been bugging him for nearly two seasons. I wrote about him previously and discussed his excellent pitch mix when he’s healthy, and he has reported via his Twitter account that he is fully healthy now. He’s in a similar spot as Thurman at 22 with a glut ahead and behind him and needing to make a splash this year to establish his position in the Braves future plans.
Next: Young Guys To Know
A.J. Minter
The Braves were overjoyed to get Minter in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft at pick number 75. Minter was a possible top-10 pick before surgery last spring. He is a lefty with a smaller build, but before his surgery, he was throwing in the upper 90s with good secondary pitches. That sort of pitch repertoire could be dynamic in the system. It is possible that the Braves will ease Minter back this season as he is healthy and ready, likely working him in extended spring and then with Danville to begin the season and letting him work his way up from there. If he can regain his previous “stuff”, however, he could be the best lefty in the system, and that’s saying something in a system with Kolby Allard and Sean Newcomb.
Young Names To Know
Our last group of guys will be some young players who were in rookie ball in 2015 that did not make the top-20 list but should be names for a Braves fan to know in 2016 (and probably names you’ll see me writing frequently in the minor league roundups twice weekly).
Derian Cruz/Christian Pache
The Braves traded away “organizational” pieces in their minor league system to be able to sign both Cruz and Pache in the July 2 class this past summer. If they follow suit with their top 2014 signees, both Cruz and Pache will debut this summer in the GCL. Cruz is a speedy shortstop who may profile as a second baseman long-term, but he already has a high-end eye and speed for a teenager. Pache is the guy who I believe will be the wild card. He has drawn reviews everywhere from Andrew McCutchen to Starling Marte to Eric Davis (because not all comps should be Pirate outfielders) with his athleticism, speed, and budding power. Both should be fun to watch down in Florida once they get on the field.
Josh Graham
Graham is a converted catcher who’s only been on the mound a short time, yet he showed enough at Oregon for the Braves to take him in the 4th round, and he’s already drawn rave reviews from a number of scouts in the industry. Graham possesses a high-velocity fastball, but his entire pitch selection has good movement, and he has good command of all of it, as evidenced by his 3/21 BB/K ratio in his 17 1/3 innings at Danville in 2015. The Braves could have found a diamond in the rough here.
Isranel Wilson
Wilson was part of the Braves very productive July 2014 international class. He was signed as a shortstop, but he showed up to Florida significantly grown already since his signing, so a move to the outfield made sense. He’s listed at 6’3 and 185 pounds, but likely is closer to 200. There are many who believe that Wilson has the most raw power in the entire Braves system, and yes, that means more than Austin Riley. The concern is similar to Riley in that his approach in at bats was successful in the lower level he was at in 2015, but the soon-to-be 18 year-old will find his approach much more difficult to maintain against upper level pitchers. Wilson could profile as a high-quality defender in the corner outfield with excellent power, which could give him a huge upside going forward. He’ll likely start 2016 in Danville.
Randy Ventura
Ventura started to gain notoriety on the minor league review last season as he consistently had stolen another handful of bases every single time I did my twice-weekly write-up of the minor league system. He’s an example of the Braves excellent scouting system, with the Braves signing Ventura in February 2015, with him about to turn 18 in July of 2015. He’d somehow flown under the radar, but after hitting .329/.432/.394 with 55 steals in 58 games in the Dominican League this summer, he’s on a lot of radars now. Ventura will come state side this season, and it will be fun to see how he does going forward.
Jonathan Morales
Morales was selected in the 25th round in the 2015 draft out of Miami Dade Community College, a school the Braves are quite familiar with. The Puerto Rico native wasn’t expected to be much more than roster filler at the catching position, but he certainly did much more than that, putting up a .304/.377/.511 line with the GCL team, including 7 home runs. There are some arguments among Braves fans over who the top catching prospect may be in the organization among Lucas Herbert, Morales, William Contreras, Tanner Murphy, Ricardo Rodriguez, or even Christian Yelich‘s brother, Collin Yelich, who was also a 2015 draft pick, but from the limited video I’ve seen on all, I believe Morales has by far the most upside combination with the bat and glove.
Next: Spring Training TV Schedule
We at Tomahawk Take hope you enjoyed the week of prospects. Look for a post that will be coming soon to be a spot to put all the scouting reports on the site into one spot for easy reference. Also, starting next Monday will be daily prospect evaluations for a couple of weeks, dialing back to a couple per week until the season begins, when you’ll get likely 1 per week starting in May once there’s enough data out there to review. Thanks for reading, and let us know what you think in the comments below!