Baseball Prospectus published their 2016 PECOTA projections yesterday and the post has risen eyebrows all over the MLB. The Atlanta Braves record? Well, that looks very similar to many other sites projections for the Braves season.
Last year at the end of the season, nearly half of the MLB teams were 10 games or over off of their PECOTA projections. That gives Braves fans a little hope, right?
Let’s take a look at the NL East PECOTA projections
New York Mets: 90-72
Washington Nationals: 87-75
Miami Marlins: 76-86
Atlanta Braves: 68-94
Philadelphia Phillies: 65-97
So, ouch…the Phillies and the Braves have the two worst records in these projections. Every other team in the MLB is projected with at least 72 wins.
I won’t type through each division on here, you can go to the link above to view Baseball Prospectus’s full article, but I will talk about a couple things that stood out to me.
First off the AL East. This division is usually a very tough one to win and it looks like 2016 will be no different. I thought it was strange that they have the Tampa Bay Rays winning the division and the Orioles in last with only 72 wins. The Boston Red Sox should be very strong this season, along with the Jays and Yankees.
Secondly, in the AL Central BP has the Cleveland Indians finishing 2016 with the best record in the American League. Interesting…the lineup does look very balanced and they do have a core young starting pitching group. Also in the AL Central, the reigning World Series Champs and back-t0-back World Series appearing Kansas City Royals are projected to be last in the division with a 76-86 record. Great, just what they need…fuel to light their fire.
A couple other small items I noticed…in the NL Central they are projecting the Chicago Cubs to win the division pretty easily over the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals. They believe the Pirates and Cards will only win 83 and 82 games in 2016. In fact, only nine games separate the Pirates, Cards, Brewers and Reds in that division.
Back to the Braves. 68 wins, eh? That’s only a one game improvement over 2015 record and would be their third straight below .500 season.
The Braves are projected to score the least amount of runs in the entire MLB with 602…we broke the 600 mark!!! Atlanta is projected to have a .248 batting average that sits seventh worst in the MLB and a .305 on base percentage that’s third worst.
Okay, the Braves offense is projected to be bad and on paper, you’re probably right…but what’s that old saying…”games aren’t won or lost on paper“…yeah, that’s it!
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What about the pitching/defense? Baseball Prospectus is projecting the Braves to allow 721 runs in 2016 and that’s ninth worst in the MLB. Also, they have a FRAA (fielding runs above average) of -20.1 which is fifth worst and is looked upon as “Horrendous”.
If these projections are looking a little frightening to you…how about we take a look at ESPN’s Top 30 Farm Systems. #1 on that list!!