Jul 16, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; United States manager Jim Tracy (4) greets Dominican Republic manager Denio Gonzalez (30) during the introduction of the starting lineups during the 2015 Pan Am Games at Ajax Pan Am Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Braves Have 3rd-highest International Bonus Pool; 4th Draft Pool for 2016
BaseballAmerica.com has learned the amount of spending authorized under MLB rules for the 2016 Rule 4 (Regular) Draft and the July 2nd International player market. Numbers from 2015 are up in tandem with MLB revenues: 4.6%-ish higher this year.
The Rule 4 draft allocations are set according to draft order, but also slotted by draft pick and round. So teams with extra picks get more total spending power. Accordingly, while the Phillies have the #1 draft position, the Reds have a higher allowed bonus allocation since they have a Competitive Balance pick (the first one, in fact). This situation does not apply to the J2 International market, however, so the Phillies have the highest spending power there.
What does all this mean? It isn’t money handed to the teams… it’s more like a “thou shalt not exceed” credit line for their own spending. Let me quote from BleacherNation.com:
"Teams are assigned a “pool” of dollars that they can use to sign players selected within the first 10 rounds of the Draft. The pool is based on the “slot” value of each of the team’s picks (each pick in the Draft is given a certain value, and each of a team’s picks’ values are added up to determine the pool amount)."
That’s how the draft pool works; for the international market, it’s similar, though only 4 “slots” exist… slots that may be traded to other teams.
Atlanta’s Numbers… and legal limits
For the regular draft, Atlanta’s bonus allocation is $12,385,200. At least for now. There will likely be slight changes since 3 Qualifying Off free agents are still unsigned. In 2015, the Braves’ total bonus pool was $8,363,400, so this represents a sizeable increase in spending power, though that will mostly be the difference between a #14 pick and a #3 pick.
By rule, the maximum the Braves will be able to spend without losing a future 1st round draft pick is 5% above the 2016 figure, or $13,004,460. Anything over that baseline $12.385 million figure means a 75% tax on the overage. That draft pick penalty has been a quite effective deterrent to teams, as none has yet found an athlete worthy enough to (effectively) spend two first round picks on… the current year’s pick and the loss of the next year’s pick.
For the J2 International market, Atlanta’s current limit is $4,766,000 – close to double their base figure from 2015. But as we’ve discussed in these pages, that’s merely a starting point.
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Expect the Braves to do two things here:
- Work hard to expand this pool limit to $7,149,000. This represents an increase of the maximum-allowed 150% of their baseline figure. As was done last year, they can do this by trading players to other clubs not interested (or not allowed) in the International market this season. I have also speculated as to whether future swaps (such as 2017 slots) could be traded in a wink-wink deal, though that assumes that this broken system will prevail beyond the next Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiation.
- Blow well past whatever limit they actually have. This is when the Braves will be as aggressive as they’ve ever been – trying to secure as many high-tier international prospects as they can get. We already know a few targeted names. There will be others. The Braves will put themselves into the maximum penalty situation, leveraging the canyon-sized loophole that other clubs have taken advantage of in the past.
Every dollar of pool space that Atlanta can raise their cap by means another dollar of spending power, for once spending rises above the (hopefully $7,149,000) cap, it’s a 75% penalty on the overage (up to 10% over) and the Braves will owe a 100% penalty thereafter. [corrected/updated from original: the rules changed slightly in 2014].
Obviously, the Braves are preparing for doing exactly that, figuring that heavy spending on what amounts to be multiple first-round draft picks will pay huge dividends on the field in the future.
It will be hard to acquire that much extra pool space: multiple trades happened in 2015 to lift Atlanta from their original $2.458 million limit to the ~$3.7 million limit they ultimately spent. Getting from $4.77 million to $7.149 million will require some serious heavy lifting on the part of John Coppolella. That may be even tougher with other teams also intending to overspend their pools – namely the Phillies, Padres, Nationals, and Cardinals – for they will likely want other teams’ “spare slots” as well.
Next: Three Strikes and You Really Are Out
So expect an active Spring with minor league trades as this “slot wheeling and dealing” takes place in advance of the July 2 opening of the International Market.
Can’t wait.