What Would You Do With the Atlanta Braves OF?
Trade Inciarte or Sign Cespedes? What’s Your Call?
This week has been a bit… odd for Atlanta Braves’ rumors… even by the lofty standards that have been set over the past year. Let me illustrate:
braves are an interesting team that has some interest in cespedes. many calling, but some looking for a price.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 13, 2016
…and also…
The #Astros have inquired on #Braves CF Ender Inciarte. Presumably would have to move Carlos Gomez to make a deal work.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) January 13, 2016
Same day… three hours apart. While this doesn’t have to be the case, on the surface you’d have to look at these at think that they are mutually exclusive:
- Either neither rumor happens (most likely), or…
- The Braves get an offer they can’t refuse from Houston for Ender Inciarte, and continue to load up on pieces for the future or…
- The Braves jump-start their 2017 renaissance and sign Yoenis Cespedes (keeping Inciarte)
That said, there’s actually a scenario in which Atlanta could reasonably do both.
With the Orioles signing Chris Davis to a monster deal this morning, the Cespedes scenario actually is still in play for Atlanta… though still very unlikely. It would be nice to land a middle-of-the-order bat, but doing this via a costly long-term contract is the part that causes uncontrollable itching.
The fascinating part of this (to me) is the wholly different team-building philosophies that could be in play for any of these possibilities, and that’s what I would like to highlight here today. Let’s take a look:
Scenario 1: Trading Inciarte
WHY: Lots of reasons.
- He’s 25 years old
- He’s had two excellent major league seasons
- He isn’t a free agent until 2021 – five years away
- The Braves have at least two more capable Center Fielders
- Leadoff batter potential
- Gold Glove defender
- The ultimate “sell-high” candidate
For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume the trade target to raid is Houston. Previously, we’d look at the Cubs… and presumably, they could still be in play. Regardless of the trading partner, the message is the same: they will overpay or they won’t get the player. Period.
The Astros still have Carlos Gomez for CF this season… but he’s getting $9 million, it’s the last year of his contract, and the Astros would much rather spin him somewhere else than pay him. But the Braves would not want him, either, so who would they wish to pluck from Houston?
- George Springer – his sophomore season in the majors was must better than his first. Reduced strikeouts, improved his average, and was a better defender. Not unlike Cespedes, in reality.
- OF prospect Kyle Tucker. Yeah, it’s nostalgic and sweet having the two Tucker brothers in the organization. Forget that – I’d like to have Kyle in ours.
- I would ask for Alex Bregman – if I thought he could play third base.
- You might be thinking “Altuve!” or “Correa!”, but with the Braves’ middle infield glut, neither makes sense.
- You might also be thinking “A.J. Reed!”… except he plays first base and nothing else. No, Freddie isn’t going anywhere.
So who could the Braves really get? I do think the Astros would have to part with Springer, Bregman or Tucker, and a third player a bit further down the chart before the Braves would think about moving Inciarte.
In terms of team-building philosophy, this is the “Maximum the farm system” plan and “Build around young players”. Inciarte himself could be one of those, but he could also be turned into 2-3 more.
Next: Just one more page, I promise
Scenario 2 – Signing Cespedes
I covered most of this earlier this week, so I won’t redo that now. I do think that it would require something around 5 years and $100 million overall, and the question for today is whether the Braves would care to do such a thing under the guise of adding that one Big Bat that might not be easily available next off-season.
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Additionally, Cespedes would have to play right field in a nominal lineup of Olivera/Inciarte/Cespedes covering the grassy bits of Turner Field. That means Nick Markakis would have to be traded elsewhere. Based on events this morning, that might actually have gotten a bit easier to do: both the White Sox and Orioles could have interest there. Since Markakis is a bona fide hitter, I don’t think that would be much of a problem.
The question for today would be whether Atlanta would be better off with up to 3 more years of Markakis or ~5 years of Cespedes. So Scenario 2 is “get that Big Bat now“.
Scenario 3 – Do Neither
In this scenario, this is the “hold fast to what you’ve got and make a bridge to the future” idea. John Coppolella believes that the roster he’s assembled can be more productive on offense than in 2015. Admittedly, it’s going to be hard to be as bad as they were in 2015, but there is reason to agree with Coppy:
- Markakis should be better
- Inciarte should be better – akin to having Cameron Maybin‘s two good months (May-June) for the entire year
- Olivera should be better
- Adonis Garcia – if he can play third – might be a little better than all the 3Bs run out there in 2015.
- Our 2nd base platoon should improve the position
- 1st base depends on Freeman’s wrist, but there’s hope here.
All of this is actually plausible, though (a) the left side defense is going to be worse; and (b) there isn’t a lot of depth for injuries, other than moving Kelly Johnson and Emilio Bonifacio all over the diamond.
Scenario 4 – Trade Enciarte and Get Cespedes
This could work under certain circumstances:
- In a Cubs trade, SS/3B Javier Baez is obtained, which resolves third base. Cespedes plays RF. Garcia is flipped or becomes a bench bat and Markakis is traded elsewhere. The Braves also get additional prospects – such as a top catcher – from the Cubs. Michael Bourn opens the season as the CF and Mallex Smith is promoted when ready. Braves add two bats (Cespedes/Baez), a lead-off hitter (Smith), and are stronger defensively.
- I do not have a reasonable way to make a Houston trade for Inciarte work if Cespedes is also signed. It would simply be too complicated. Other teams might allow this to work, but the best chance would seem to be the Cubs.
This scenario is the “finish the re-build early” plan. In all reality, this would only be done under the Perfect Storm of being offered the exact right fit of players for Inciarte. But with the Cubs… that might actually be possible if the scouts believe in the prospects that would come back.
Which Plan Appeals?
There are merits to all of these, but now it’s time to play GM for a moment: which of these scenarios works best over the long haul for Atlanta? Let us know what you think!
Next: What Did the Braves Pick up in Jose Ramirez?
One more thing: forget trading Freddie Freeman in any scenario… it’s just not going to happen, okay?