Jun 26, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves batting gloves and bats in the dugout before the Braves play the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The Pirates won 3-2 in ten innings. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Think the Braves are Being Frugel? Think Again.
My own estimates are that the Braves will be spending big in 2016 – just not on the major league roster.
Atlanta is is a unique situation, one we’ve talked about a lot in these pages:
- 3rd draft position
- Deep International talent market, with many big spenders sidelined by past over-spending
Due to an unprecedented (for them) pile of accumulated draft picks in 2015, Atlanta had a draft bonus pool limit of over $10 million in 2015 – the fourth highest overall despite picking 14th. This season, Atlanta figures to have a total bonus pool of around $11 million with the 3rd overall pick – their highest limit ever.
But it’s the International market where the biggest splash is expected. By my estimation, at least $20 million has been cleared from the major league payroll budget to be applied to International spending.
In 2015, the Braves maxed their limit in the International market – starting with a $2.46 million pool, and extending that through trades to the maximum of 50%… and spending all of that. It was the most they have spent in a single year.
2016 looks to make that look like chump change by comparison.
The international bonus pool dollars for 2016 will not be known until April, but should be in the neighborhood of $5,000,000 for Atlanta. Last year’s 3rd pick, the Texas Rangers, enjoyed a $4.586 million total. Teams can trade for additional pieces (divided up into slots) of spending rights, with the ability to increase their spending limits by up to 50%, as the Braves did in 2016.
Expect some minor trades this Spring with exactly that in mind, for the Braves are intent to spend that $20 million, yet every dollar spent above that presumed $5 million limit will incur a 100% penalty. So here’s the math:
- Spending $20 million with a $5 million limit means $12.5 million of actual spending power (money actually going to players).
- If Atlanta manages to acquire the maximum $2.5 million of addition spending rights, then $20 million spent represents $13.75 million of spending power.
If all of that materializes, that’s well over triple 2015’s international spending.
How can they get these extra spending rights? There’s several teams (9 of them) that will be severely limited in what they can spend internationally in 2016. That’s part of the consequence for over-spending that the Braves will face in 2017-18. Since they can’t spend – and the Braves want to – they can trade their 2016 spending rights to Atlanta.
Usually such a trade involves a minor league prospect for a slot of some significance. Just thinking out loud here for a second, though, I would wonder if Atlanta might be able to obtain a current slot in exchange for a future slot. As in this: Atlanta sends one of their soon-to-be-useless 2017 slots away to one of the current penalty-clubs that will be eligible for 2017 spending… in exchange for a 2016 slot. If this were to happen, it would be termed “future considerations” in baseball parlance. Interesting.
Regardless of all that…the point is this: brace yourself for the biggest International spending year the Braves will ever have. Expect lots of signings of teenagers you’ve never heard of… but many will be the equivalent of top-of-the-first round talents who could eventually develop into high-impact players for the team starting around 2021.
Next: Part 2 - More Spending