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Can the Atlanta Braves Rely on Prospect Growth Alone?

By Alan Carpenter |
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Mar 12, 2015; Tempe, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Sean Newcomb (86) throws in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Lots of Premium Prospects Coming… But is there enough Production?

It does not appear that waiting on the farm alone will be sufficient to get Atlanta to the kind of team production that it will need to be a perennial playoff contender

A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the productivity of the 2015 Atlanta Braves.  It was pretty abysmal.  In short, to be a playoff team in 2015, you had to be able to show fWAR production in all aspects of the game – pitching, hitting, and defense – that added to at least 43 WAR.

The 5 NL playoff teams were remarkably balanced:  21+ WAR pitching; 22+ WAR on offense (note: pitchers’ contributions on offense were ignored for these numbers).

Of teams that were close, the Giants (39.7) were close to that 43 mark overall, though it was skewed away from pitching (8.9).  The Nationals came up with a 40.8 overall and were balanced… but most of their production came from a single source:  Bryce Harper (9.5 of the team’s 19.1 offensive WAR).  The Diamondbacks were strong on offense and defense (25.6), but lacked in pitching (8.1).

So what have the DBacks and Giants done this Fall?  Loaded up on pitching.  I still don’t know what the Nationals are doing.

The Braves have a lot of work to do:  5 on pitching WAR; 13.6 on the offense… and a lot of that has been traded away.  Simmons: 3.2; Uribe: 1.4 in 46 games; Phillip Goselin: 0.3 in 20 games; Shelby Miller and Alex Wood:  5.4 combined.

When Will Help Arrive?

This graphic represents my best guess are when we could see some of the better -ranked prospects hit the majors.  This shows the top dozen, as currently ranked at mlbpipeline.com, plus 2 more of particular interest:  Mallex Smith and Austin Riley.  The ‘most red’ part of each bar is the hot spot in trying to guess when each player’s major league debut could be.

Some players, such as Ozhaino Albies, have a very wide bar due to uncertainty about how quickly the organization will push him through the system – and he well he will respond, of course.  Mallex Smith was another with considerable uncertainty due to unknown factors such as future possible trades.  So there is certainly room to quibble over many of these dates, though this should be fairly close overall.

Several observations:

  • With estimates:  failure is always an option.  I was reminded this morning about ‘prospect failure’ rates (a term I loathe, by the way).  Roughly 70% of prospects do not make the majors; a  figure that’s higher with pitchers.  In my book, that’s not “failure”, given that we’re talking about the elite levels of professional competition, but ultimately we all want ‘real’ major league players.
  • “Arrive” does not mean “thrive”.  It generally takes about 3 years before a productive major leaguer gets to be actually productive.
  • Sure:  the prospect list is deep on the farm now.  I could have included several more names.  But given the rates that players outside the Top 10 or so become productive players, it makes sense to limit the scope here.
  • If you need 21+ WAR on offense and on pitching to make the playoffs, you need multiple players contributing to reach that goal.  On average, that’s probably 2+ WAR from all of your regular position players; 2.5+ from your rotation and 1+ in your bullpen.  Only 94 major leaguer hitters were at 2.0 or better in 2015; 48 starting pitchers at 2.5+)

Some players will clearly be better than others.  Will Sean Newcomb show up in 2016 and start throwing to a 2.5 WAR rate?  Not likely, but it’s possible by 2018, perhaps.  Will Mallex Smith be a 2 WAR player right out of the box?  It’s possible, though you can’t count on that.  Jace Peterson started off great in 2015… and faded to a 1.1.  The team is countering with a possible platoon situation for him in 2016.

In short, you have to view every prospect through a bit of an unvarnished, almost jaded filter, for they almost always look better than they pan out.  But in totality… the group should perform well over time.

Next: Crystal-Balling the Future

Sep 26, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Adonis Garcia (24) is late on tagging out Miami Marlins third baseman Miguel Rojas (19) at third base during the eighth inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Position Ratings/Guesses

Clearly, Atlanta seems to be set for pitching, though it could be 2018-19 before even current rookies move into their prime production years.  It could therefore be 2018-2019 before that 20+ WAR level is reached for pitching.

More from Tomahawk Take

On the other hand, position-player estimation seems to have a few quirks:

  • 1B – Freddie Freeman.  Signed through 2021 and probably good for anything between 3 and 7 WAR each season.
  • 2B – Jace and friends until Albies arrives.  The position is thus covered for several more years, though the question will be about production.  If the Braves can average 2 WAR here, that would be good.
  • SS – Aybar had a down year in 2015 thanks to worse-than-expected defense.  If he can rebound a bit, 2 WAR is not out of the question (had 3.7+ in 4 seasons since 2009).  Aybar could be re-signed for 2017 if Swanson isn’t ready, but it’s his spot after that.
  • 3B – I guess this position belongs to Adonis Garcia … with Beckham or Bonifacio as backups… until either Rio Ruiz or Austin Riley takes it away.  Then again, in his Venezuelan games (8 of them):  3 errors for Garcia.  That fielding may be hard to take, even if he were to muster the .940 OPS in Atlanta that he posted in Winter Ball (he won’t).  1 WAR this season?
  • LF – Hector Olivera is signed through 2020.  He should be better in 2016 with a full, normal ramp-up, though don’t be surprised if he doesn’t fade in the Summer – he’s never played this many games in a season.  2 WAR would be a good year.
  • CF – Ender Inciarte.  Assuming that he isn’t traded, he should be able to be counted on for 3 WAR since defense is a strong part of that for his game.  But he’s also been the rare player who has hit well at almost every level… hardly even pausing at the majors.
  • RF – Nick Markakis.  Signed for 3 more seasons. Has been betwen 1.6 and 2.4 WAR every season since 2009 (excepting a 2013 abberation).  No power in 2015, but excellent batting eye.  I’ll pencil him in for an improved 2 WAR year.
  • C – Pierzynski and Flowers.  You can probably count of them for 2.0 WAR combined (1.5 and 0.5 or so).  Beyond that, we have no way to know who or when another catcher will emerge.

Adding all of that up:

  • 2016:  17-18 WAR… which would definitely be an improvement without being terribly optimistic, and assuming that every other position player on the roster can average 0.0.  Pitching may continue to lag… but the bullpen has to be better.  Call it 10 WAR.
  • 2017:  The Braves would need a boost at both catcher and 3B – possibly also 2B – to maintain a 17-18 rate.  The pitching should continue to marginally improve, perhaps to 12-15 WAR at this point.
  • 2018:  By now the players of the future could be in place around the infield… might have some growing pains, though.
  • 2019:  With the pitching hitting a stride by this point, it could be a chance to really compete well this season, if strategic upgrades can be made at Catcher and RF.

What About International Players?

Don’t forget:  most of these are 16 years old when signed… that not only makes it a long time before they can sniff the majors, but also increases the risk that they never make it that far.  If you need further evidence of that, I give you two prime examples just from this morning:

The reason that the Braves are concentrating on high-upside players, multiple draft picks, multiple international players is because all of them represent rolls of the dice.  Many will falter along the way.  Few will succeed.  With many more options come many more chances for success… and for more production as well.  But even as we’re looking at significant spending in the most recent signing period and for 2016, don’t expect any contributions from here until 2021 at the absolute earliest… and more like 2022-2024.

Next: 30 Ballparks in 2016? It's Possible... and Here's a Plan to do it

The trick is in waiting for these players already in the pipeline to become ready to produce. But as good as the farm system it now, it does not appear that waiting on the farm alone will be sufficient to get Atlanta to the kind of team production that it will need to be a perennial playoff contender.  There are some time gaps.  There are some positional holes.  There will need to fill-ins with premium contributors along the way.

Sure: things can change; trades and free agency can and may make a big difference.  But right now that ‘window of opportunity’ feels like somewhere in the 2018-2019+ time frame.  The better news is that once the window opens, it may stay open for a while.

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