Atlanta Braves Newcomer: Aaron Blair, Who He Is and What The Braves Can Expect

Mar 1, 2015; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Aaron Blair (70) poses for a portrait during Photo Day at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Blair Scouting Report

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I went through and watched 6 of Blair’s starts. I chose three from his time in AA last season and three from his time in AAA. I wanted to see one game against our own Mississippi Braves, so I did watch one start there, and I also had a recommendation to watch a start against Salt Lake in his AAA time. Other than those two starts, I picked the last two starts at each minor league affiliate. The total stat line from those six starts was the following: 3-2 record, 39 innings pitched, 2.77 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 7/30 BB/K.

Blair is a large man, and he seems to enjoy wearing clothes to make himself look even larger. He’s 6’5 and 230, and those look accurate, but he seems like he grabbed the biggest jersey in the clubhouse each different start, so he appeared larger until you saw him slap his glove to his stomach or something to really show how much extra jersey he had!

Blair’s delivery is quick and effortless. He has an extra pull back at the peak of his windup – not a Hideo Nomo level reach back, but a much less exaggerated version of that sort of hip turn. This helps him generate extra downward plane by getting his body high before he delivers. His arm slot sits just a touch under 3/4, and he’s fairly consistent with the slot. That consistency of arm slot really keeps hitters from sitting on any of his pitches, even at the AAA level.

From that peak point of his delivery, Blair comes down hill, and he does so with as near a perfect form as you could ask for, leveraging his legs very well, and using his thick legs and torso to generate the force and sink to his pitches. Like his consistency with his arm slot, he also had very good consistency with his landing spot with his foot on the mound.

Blair’s repertoire to begin 2015 was a three-pitch mix of a sinking fastball, change up, and a curve ball. His consistent arm slot and arm speed really does an excellent job of hiding the difference among the three. His fastball is a low-90s pitch, sitting in the 89-92 range, touching 94 in the games I saw. That said, he did touch 93 twice in the 7th inning in one game, so he maintains the top velocity throughout the game.

The change up is a powerful weapon for Blair, creating a ton of weak contact as hitters simply cannot pick up the difference between the fastball and change up, which sits about 10 mph slower than the fastball. His curve ball has a break from 11 to 5, but it doesn’t tend to break a ton of planes. His curve ball is his strikeout pitch, but if he starts the pitch up in the zone, it doesn’t break enough to get out of the heart of the hitting zone, so he did get hit hard a few times on curve balls up in the zone.

Next: 2016 outlook

The reason I mentioned his three-pitch mix in the past tense is that he began working with a fourth pitch in his time in Reno this season, and he had considerable success in spurts with the pitch. He started working with a slider that came in around 82-84 mph. The pitch did become “slurvy” in his last two starts, and when it would do that, it could get driven fairly well, but in the game against Salt Lake, it was snapping well as a pure sinking slider, and that motion was baffling hitters. If he can get that slider consistent, he could have a real weapon on his hands.

Mar 1, 2015; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Aaron Blair (70) poses for a portrait during Photo Day at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Blair 2016 Outlook

Blair’s outlook should remind Braves fans a lot of what they got in the Craig Kimbrel deal with Matt Wisler, and they are very similar pitchers. Blair lives low in the zone and relies on location and his defense to keep hitters off base. One media outlet recently stated that Blair’s best major league comparable pitcher, interestingly enough, was Shelby Miller, the pitcher Atlanta traded to acquire him.

I can easily see the mid-rotation, inning-eater starter that everyone raves about in Blair in watching him, but something about him makes me think there’s more there than just that middle guy. Watching that slider when it was on mixed in with his other three pitches certainly gave Blair the look of more of a John Lackey type of pitcher, and Lackey is a guy who’s had three 5+ fWAR seasons in his career (for basis, only 13 qualified starters in baseball posted a 5 fWAR season in 2015), so if he gets a hold on that slider, his upside is excellent, but his floor is also quite high as even without his slider, he’s going to be a successful inning-eater type.

Next: Home Run King Retires

Blair adds yet another arm into a very interesting mix of pitchers from AA on up within the Braves organization. I would imagine he’ll be in the AAA or Atlanta rotation, but which one is anyone’s guess at this point. I would consider him a legitimate competitor with Julio Teheran, Matt Wisler, Bud Norris, Williams Perez, Ryan Weber, Manny Banuelos, Mike Foltynewicz, and Tyrell Jenkins. That’s nine guys for five rotation spots! Seemingly a very good problem to have, but that doesn’t even take into effect the guys likely starting the season in the minor leagues who could break through during the season in most other systems. The stockpile of arms the Braves have accumulated is truly unheard of in the modern era, and it will be very interesting to see how the development of those arms works out in the next few years.