Atlanta Braves Should Trade Shelby Miller (There is Interest)

Sep 21, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher A.J. Pierzynski (15) talks with starting pitcher Shelby Miller (17) on the mound during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Okay, so Freddie Freeman is not going to be traded. That rumor is dead… and better off left that way. Stop beating that horse.

But then there’s the other rumor sneaking in through the side door. The one involving starting pitcher Shelby Miller.

Yesterday, we related a report from Ken Rosenthal that the Arizona Diamondbacks had expressed an interest in Miller… and then went away after hearing about whatever the Braves wanted in return.

Today, Buster Olney teases us:

Since Shelby Miller's name first emerged in the trade market, the Giants and Dodgers have checked in on his availability.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 19, 2015

Olney also includes a column to discuss the point in something a bit longer than 140 characters. It’s for ESPN Insiders, but happily for our purposes, the salient bits are there for all to see before the rest is hidden.

Olney’s main point is that teams are scratching about for pitchers that are either “second tier” free agents or available via the trade market. Curiously enough, even some of the bigger market clubs are doing this as well.

Exhibit 1A in Olney’s evidence is… Shelby Miller:

"Shelby Miller, Braves: Since Miller’s name first emerged as a market option last week, the Dodgers and Giants each checked in to see how serious Atlanta is about moving the right-hander — and it would make a lot of sense for the Braves to move Miller now. The Braves are not going to contend for the NL East in 2016 or, in all likelihood, 2017, and Miller will be eligible for free agency after the 2018 season."

Olney is right… for lots of reasons

Yesterday, Fred pointed out the not-quite-subtle message in John Coppolella’s combined whine and rant during a recent interview: that we might not be talking about a year for this Braves rebuild… but maybe multiple years. Setting aside that our expectations have now been dashed, that suggests strongly that there’s a lot of work to be done yet… and yet we have a premium, young, controllable – and possibly somewhat exasperated – pitcher whose value may never get any higher than it is right now, today.

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Do the Braves need Shelby Miller? Yes – he was clearly the best of the group last season.

Would he be better for us as a trade piece? Yes as well: cheap premium pitching is practically impossible to come by.

If the Braves are not going to be competitive – term used intentionally – in 2016, then Coppolella should do exactly what he said he would do: use the pitching assets to build the team up from the ground with excellent top prospects that should be in the majors when we’re ready for them to be there.

Heck, Miller would probably appreciate it, too. He’s about to get his first arbitration contract, which means that he will be eligible for free agency after the 2018 season. If he continues to pitch like he did in 2015, then (a) he’ll be expensive by 2018, and (b) he’ll hit the exit running by then after having suffered through 2-ish more losing seasons.

So why make him endure those growing pains when he won’t be around to reap the benefits of those labors later anyway? Let’s flip him for prospects… or even possibly young major league talent… and be done with it. The team will be better in the long term and the Braves won’t be any worse for it in the meantime, really.

Okay, so who’s in?

Olney mentioned the Giants and Dodgers. Let’s start there.

Of these, the Dodgers make most sense. I doubt they’d part with Corey Seager, but I would ask. Their 2, 3, 5, 6, and 8 numbered prospects are all pitchers, but we’ve got plenty of those. Austin Barnes is their catcher of the future, but he’d be nice to have for sure.
For the Giants… Catcher Andrew Susac is the obvious first choice here, hopelessly blocked by Buster Posey (who was out, by the way). Not a lot to jump up and down about otherwise. They could still use an outfielder, though, and we’ve got a few extras.
Also: the Red Sox. You’ve got to think they’ve at least checked in here. But there’s one name that should be the very first ‘ask’, and it’s Yoan Moncada. I’m not nearly good enough at this game to guess whether that would be a decent trade for both sides, but it kinda feels right to me. Aside from that, yes – they have spare outfielders and yes, the Braves have no place to put them… so that’s the other reason I’d start and end with Moncada. If you want to ‘settle’ for Blake Swihart plus more, then okay, but I think the Sox need him more in the short term.
The Blue Jays. If there’s any other team really needing pitching, it’s Toronto. Word is that they (and the Dodgers, Yankees) are shopping in the Cleveland aisle of pitching to start with, but that’s one club and several teams, so many will leave the store disappointed… and will call Atlanta. Does that work for the Braves? Sure: if C Max Pentecost is made available in return.
Yankees. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, please.

Insert your own trade recipe below, but regardless: we’ve had a lot of bluster about the direction of the team and the direction of trades (specifically regarding Freeman) during this week. I can understand trading him… but I can also understand keeping him to build around. Definitely that.

Next: Allard Had a 2nd Back Surgery

However, with Miller, things are different. Pitchers break down (see that link just above!!), they get older, they lose velocity, … whatever. In Miller, you have an excellent opportunity to finish the majority of the needs of the team for the future.

Don’t blow that opportunity: trade him before January.

Then we’ll think about Julio Teheran.

Olney is right… for lots of reasons

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Okay, so who’s in?

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