Atlanta Braves GM I’m getting so tired of this

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Oct 3, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Fans wait out a rain delay before the game between the Atlanta Braves and the St. Louis Cardinals at Turner Field. Unless the Braves are a lot better in 2016 they stand will look like this when it’s not raining. Mandatory Credit: Kevin D. Liles-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Braves GM John Coppolella told USA Today he’s tired of everyone “taking shots”  and saying the Braves are not tanking.

Dear John

Oh how I hate to write. . . .  No I really do, I wanted the new regime to flush away the residual effects of the prior leadership and have supported at least the concept of their moves. Then came the trade of Andrelton Simmons for a soon to be 32 year old, league average shortstop and two pitching prospects.

I wrote about that a couple of days ago so I won’t say any more. Apparently the bludgeoning in the press, on TV, Radio and in the blogs got under Coppolella’s skin and he did his Popeye impression.

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That’s all I can stands, I can’t stands no more

As Alan noted in this morning’s Chop  Coppolella went on what I’d call an ‘oh me-poor me’ rant designed I suppose to defend the team’s honor. According to Bob Nightengale in the post linked above, “. . . Coppolella is livid that no one is giving them the benefit of the doubt.”

Here’s a secret Mr. Coppolella, the fans are livid too and with good cause,  the trade of Simmons made no sense to them or anyone else.

Coppolella said that regardless of what anyone said he would, “. . . trust our scouts and analytics.” Yet he’s produced nothing in the way of analytics to back that up. Instead he used a traditional stat line as justification, something that made sabermetrics guys raise their eye brows and chuckle. I’ve yet to see a sabermetrically oriented commentator find a rationale in any of the new metrics to support his assertion. If you have let me know.

The Braves announced today that John Hart will become President of Baseball Operations Mandatory Credit USA Today Sports

Trust me

When someone says trust me I automatically wonder where he got the idea I didn’t trust him to begin with. The new front office started out with a  trunk load of trust. Since that time however they have said things haven’t gone as expected.

John Hart said . . .

On January 15th, 2015 John Hart said:

“We have never entertained trading [Kimbrel] and have had zero conversations with any clubs about Craig,” Hart said Thursday morning. “I want him finishing out a World Series win.”

On April 5th Craig Kimbrel was on his way to the Padres.  There were good reasons for the trade, I felt it was a good deal then and still do.  After the trade we found that Kimbrels name had come up earlier during the Justin Upton trade talks so while it was true they had no specific discussions about Kimbrel it was mentioned.  Hart would have been better off saying what everyone knew, for the right deal anyone can be traded. That’s the truth, the original statement was spin.

January 15th was a bad quote day for Hart. In an interview with the Associated Press contained in part in a story called John Hart Says Braves Will Contend, Hart said this.

“We may not be the prettiest girl at the dance,” he said in a telephone interview, “but we’re going to be a lot of fun to dance with.”

On the day he traded Kimbrel Hart said:

“This is not a club we want to see sink into a morass here for a period of time,” Hart said. “We think we’re doing some exciting things.”

That was followed by the “We will be competitive” mantra from everyone in leadership. Yet they Braves started the season with a roster comprised of castoff’s and AAAA players who, in spite of a fast start from a few of those players running on adrenalin, were never going to be a 500 ball team. In the end they were barely a good AAA ball team.

In the end even the players wondered what the devil was going on as nothing was done to stop the bleeding. After his trade to the Angels Simmons put it like this.

“I didn’t expect it,” Simmons, now a cornerstone in Anaheim with Mike Trout, told MLB Network, “but if you see what’s happening in Atlanta … you won’t be surprised when you hear it’s happening.” “I’m happy to be part of an organization that’s trying to win, win right now.”

That says about everything you need to know about trust.

Apr 11, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Former Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons took his Gold and Platinum Glove awards and moved to Anaheim where he’s “Happy to be joining a team that wants to win now.” Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

We’re not tanking…

The Nightengale piece asks the GM about the general feeling that the Braves are tanking in order to grab draft picks and save money along the way. The GM of course denies this offering examples to defend his position. He should really get someone to help him prepare for these in more detail.

“If we truly were going to tank, we wouldn’t have had Aybar come back in the trade. If we were trying to tank, we wouldn’t have signed (catcher) A.J. Pierzynski. If we were trying to tank, we would have traded Maybin at the deadline last year, and we had plenty of offers.

In a comment to Alan’s post earlier today I looked at that statement from an objective – if cynical – viewpoint.  He starts by offering up Erick Aybar as an example.

1) “If we truly were going to tank, we wouldn’t have had Aybar come back in the trade . . .
Yes you would. The Braves needed a major league shortstop who wouldn’t be a complete embarrassment after trading Simmons.  Daniel Castro is a utility/bench player and Jace Peterson doesn’t have the arm or range for shortstop, The rest of the in house options are too far away to be used in 2016.

They could either ask for Aybar and enough cash to make the trade payroll neutral this season or sign an all glove guy like Cliff Pennington. They took Aybar because they could spin the stats to make it look like he would be make a big improvement at the plate hoping all season long that his bat doesn’t fold.
2) “. . .If we were trying to tank we wouldn’t have signed (catcher) A.J. Pierzynski.
Yes you would. The Braves needed a veteran catcher and had talks with Chris Iannetta but couldn’t agree terms.  AJ wanted to stay in Atlanta, took a cheap, one year contract and was a fan favorite.

3) “. . .If we were trying to tank, we would have traded Maybin at the deadline last year, and we had plenty of offers.”
It’s well reported that they had offers but by that time the team was circling the drain so rapidly that it was becoming a joke. As current manager and Coppolella parrot said on XM yesterday, team leadership was embarrassed. Cameron Maybin remained a fan favorite throughout the year even though he cooled considerably after his hot start.  Besides his .240/.289/.311/.600 second half is pretty deep in a tank anyway

In a previous interview on Fangrapjhs I discussed in more detail in my post on the trade, theoretically sabermetrics oriented Copollela said something not many aside from his former boss Frank Wren (who famously said errors don’t matter) would agree with.

“Infield defense is very important and Andrelton may be the best of all time. It’s hard to quantify not only the hits he turns into outs, but also the extra pitches, and the stress associated with those pitches, for our young arms. That being said, defense isn’t everything. (my emphasis)

I agree defense isn’t everything but when you have young pitchers who put the ball on the ground and a team that doesn’t score many runs, defense is extremely important.

The braves didn’t take a step down from Simmons to Brandown Crawford or Adeiny Hechavarria, they went from the best in the game to a player 19th of 23 qualified shortstops and expect his bat to make it all better.

Braves fans feel the same as the fan as the Memphis Grizzlies game. They want some good news not front office spin. Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Give me just a little more time. . .

And our love will surely grow. . .  or not

This was supposed to be a quick turn around retooling/restructuring/rebuilding or whatever euphemism you care to choose, so the team would be able to challenge in 2017. That’s a long shot now.

That quick turn around is now being replace by a different mantra. Twice in the Nightengale post Coppolella mentions a few years.

“If guys want to take shots, or (degrade) us, fine. But let’s let it play out for a few years before we start branding our pitchforks and torches.” “There is a method to this madness,” Coppolella said. “Judge our trades in two to three years. Not now.”

That seems to put the timeline at around 2018 or 2019 and that goes along with his other analogies.

“To us, it’s just like five years ago when the Royals traded away Zack Greinke. . . Or how about the Mets two-years ago when they traded their Cy Young winner. . .for a kid in Double-A and another in high-A,”  Coppolella said, “How did that turn out?”

Those analogies are a stretch.  Zach Grienke was going to nearly double his salary from $7M to $13.5M the next year and 2010 was one of his worst years as he posed 1.3 rWAR and 4.17 ERA.

The Mets  R.A. Dickey wasn’t making much money but at  37 years old he was not part of the Mets future.  Neither player was the affirmed best at his position and someone the fans came to watch- not that what the fans think matters for the right deal.  Simmons is 25 has not yet peaked and was never going to be expensive in terms of value for what he did in the field.

Just to make it clear, I have no problem with trading Simmons but at the very least a projectable bat should have been part of the deal. I could have lived with Jose DeLeon and Scott Schebler and signing Cliff Pennington as a stop gap shortstop. I could even justified it as the right thing to do without spinning any stats.

That’s A Wrap

Here’s the thing Mr. Coppolella, taking heat for making the hard decision comes with the job.

John Hart told the fans this would be a quick turn around and the team would be competitive, it wasn’t.

You trade the consensus best defensive player in the game two years running and plays a premium position then cite unspecified analytics before throwing out counting stats to support the trade. (Aybar’s bat has been better but not enough to offset the lost defense.) Then you expect the fans to be happy about losing him and trust that you’re doing the right thing. With no history to rely on fans aren’t going to do that.

One thing I will say about your former boss Mr. Coppolella, he never pointed the finger at his staff  as you implied by naming all of them in your comments on Fangraphs. When BJ went into the tank he didn’t say “Hey Coppollela strongly recommended him.” That’s not how leadership works.  We all know that a GM has a staff and that he leans heavily on them but compromises are created on committees, decisions are made and owned by leaders,

When you made the trade you told Mark Bowman you knew it would be an unpopular but you said “I’m not afraid. . .” If it was the right thing to do and can you explain it fully instead of in generalities, what would you have to be afraid of?

Six days later, you’re “. . .tired of this. . .”?  Tired of what, not having everything you say taken as the absolute truth?

Tired wondering why an incomplete explanation doesn’t pacify fans who expect honesty instead of spin?

Sorry, you don’t get to be openly tired of it. You can sit around with Hart and Cox and tell them how you feel but I imagine both will laugh rather loudly. They’ve been where you are and understand but complaining about it isn’t something you can do in public.

When you got that big promotion and increase in pay you also stepped out of the shadows. You are no longer protected by the boss when you screw up. Being criticized on TV, radio, in the press and online is in the job description of the GM. Leaders don’t whine, get over yourself.

Next: Welcome Back Andruw?

You ask people to trust you. Here’s the thing about trust Mr. Coppolella, it’s earned not given. If you want the trust of fans, do something to earn it. You haven’t given an answer anyone with access to the data and a desire to look at it believes. Until you do the questions will continue.

When asked about the trade rumors surrounding Freddie Freeman, you were pretty specific in your reply to Bob Nightengale.

“I cannot make it any more clear: We are not trading Freddie Freeman. We are not. I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman. It is not happening.”

If at sometime this summer or next fall a deal you can’t refuse comes up for Freeman, I suggest you make it something impossible to dislike. Otherwise there will be many fans offering to drive you to the hospital  – or someplace less well equipped – for that amputation.

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