Atlanta Braves Top 100 Prospects: 41-60
Aug 19, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder
Nick Markakis(22) hits an RBI double during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves Top 100: 56-60
60.Carlos Lopez, 17 (3/20/98), RHP, DSL
Stats: 4-1, 29 ⅔ IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.4% BB, 26.4% K
One of the downfalls to the DSL is that there is little video review that I can do, so I have to trust the limited opinions I can find on guys online, and those are frequently based on one viewing, but the February 2015 signee out of Mexico checks all the boxes. Good, projectible size? 6’4, 175. Check! Good control? 6% walk rate. Check! Good ability to get guys to miss? 26% strikeout rate. Check! He’s marking all the boxes well and performing well so far as well. The reports I’ve gotten have said his velocity isn’t quite there yet, but that he shows great arm velocity, and with his frame, as he builds strength in his frame, that velocity should come. He does have ability to command well with his fastball and breaking pitches as well.
Professional comparison: The scouting review I got compared Lopez to Danny Salazar in upside, but with the huge caveat that for every bit of velocity that Salazar has that he does not, he has control and command that Salazar does not. That’s huge praise for a young arm, and we’ll see how he builds on a strong first year.
Likely 2016 starting destination: After such a strong DSL season, I’d love to see him brought stateside to the GCL in 2016.
Expected time of arrival: 2020
59.Dian Toscano, 26 (3/9/89), LF, N/A
Stats: None
Not much to say here, sadly. Toscano was signed last offseason out of Cuba, and he ended up not playing at all due to visa issues. We have the same reports as last offseason that he can play passingly at center while handling corner outfield quite well with a good eye and contact without a ton of stolen bases or home runs. However, after another year off, he will likely need more time in 2016 to get himself acclimated to pro ball again.
Professional comparison: Reports from his signing remind many of the performance the Braves got from Nick Markakis offensively with a tick better defense.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Once cleared, Toscano will likely start at high-A Carolina or AA Mississippi and hopefully move quickly up the ladder once he’s here.
Expected time of arrival: 2017
58.Elias Arias, 21 (6/30/94), LF, GCL
Stats: .130/.196/.174, 7.8% BB, 21.6% K
One of those great “off complex” signings of the Braves from the Dominican Republic, Arias was the big news offensively of the 2014 DSL Braves squad, but injuries drastically affected his 2015, and with his advanced age before he was “discovered”, he really couldn’t afford losing the season of development. Arias struggled in his brief time in 2015, but he’s a guy with good bat control and good patience when he’s fully healthy, giving solid gap power and having tons of speed in his 6’1 frame. He’s got a huge upside, but after losing the season to injury in 2015, he’ll need a strong showing in 2016 or face falling off this list completely.
Professional comparison: After 2014, I heard a comparison of Arias to Lorenzo Cain, and I’ll keep this for now, but this is more a skill comparison, not a results comparison for sure at this point.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Danville
Expected time of arrival: 2019
57.Jose Morel, 22 (8/2/93), RF, Danville
Stats: .313/.372/.390, 7.9% BB, 22.2% K
Morel was signed from the Dominican before the 2011 season, and he spent 2 seasons in the DSL before coming stateside, and his progress was slow before he took hold last year and showed much better bat-to-ball skills than he’s shown thus far. Morel is listed at 6’1 and 195, though I’d say there’s a tick more to both measurements, and the switch hitter has some solid power in his swing, but he has a very flat path to the ball, meaning he doesn’t get a ton of loft to his hits, keeping his hits in the ballpark. I’m not sure if Morel will ever hit 20 home runs with his current approach, but I could see him hitting a number of doubles and triples and playing solid corner defense.
Professional comparison: His contact rate around the zone reminded me of Torii Hunter in the last few years as he’s relied more on his contact than power.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Rome
Expected time of arrival: 2019
56.Kurt Hoekstra, 22 (6/27/93), SS, Danville
Stats: .257/.344/.383, 9.8% BB, 18.7% K
Drafted in the 21st round this June out of Western Michigan University, no one would be upset if Hoekstra really struggled in pro ball and didn’t make it, but he came out and showed a very solid glove along with a solid eye. Hoekstra has a strong arm, but his glove isn’t elite for the position. He certainly has the range to play short, though. Hoekstra is one who does all the “little things” right, hitting to the right side with a runner on second, swinging deep with a guy at third base, and laying down a bunt as needed. He has a chance to make it as a “grit” guy as he moves forward in the system this year.
Professional comparison: Like Marcus Semien, Hoekstra could pass at short likely even at the majors right now defensively, but he’s probably best suited moving off the position to 2B or 3B.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Rome
Expected time of arrival: 2019
Next: 51-55
Oct 1, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder
Mookie Betts(50) singles to center allowing a runner to score during the fifth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves Top 100: 51-55
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55.Victor Mateo, 26 (7/27/89), RHP, AAA
Stats: 10-9, 147 ⅔ IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.6% BB, 12.4% K
In 2014, I kept pushing a guy who was getting lots of grounders and keeping guys off of base in Williams Perez. This year I was pushing Ryan Weber for the same reasons. All signs point to Mateo being that same guy for me in 2016. He certainly earned his way to AAA Gwinnett with his performance in 2015. He isn’t going to rack up strikeouts, but his long frame gives him good leverage on his sinking fastball and slider, producing a ton of ground balls when he’s at his best. Mateo isn’t a guy with tremendous swing-and-miss stuff, so if he’s not hitting his spots low in the zone and inducing grounders, he’s not going to be successful.
Professional comparison: Mentioning Yovani Gallardo with Mateo is not a comparison to the top end YoGa when he was with Milwaukee, but more with the Gallardo we say in Texas this year, who used his high-end infield defense to one of his best seasons of his career, relying on the ground ball and nowhere near a 200-K guy.
Likely 2016 starting destination: AAA Gwinnett
Expected time of arrival: 2016
54.Keith Curcio, 22 (12/28/92), CF/2B, Carolina
Stats: .265/.327/.369, 34 XBH, 24 SB, 7.6% BB, 12.9% K
Curcio was the Braves’ 6th round selection in 2014 out of Florida Southern College. His build would suggest the type of guy who is all grit, no skill, but that’s not accurate for sure. Curcio blew off the doors in Rome, earning a fast advancement to Carolina after hitting .342/.416/.479 in Rome over 32 games. He had a similar struggle after promotion that Mallex Smith had upon arriving in AAA this year, and like Smith, he turned things on at the end of the season, hitting 3 home runs and stealing 9 bases between August and September. Curcio flashed excellent defensive chops, but his biggest surprise this year was his defensive versatility. He experimented at 2B in Rome before his promotion, and he ended up playing 36 games there, and he acquitted himself quite well, showing solid range and sure hands, if not exactly flashy play. Curcio has speed to burn on the basepaths, but he’s still working on the nuances of stealing bases. He did display solid base running instincts though when moving first to third and coming out of the box on gap hits, allowing him to pick up a combined 10 triples on the season. Curcio may not end up as a starting caliber outfielder or second baseman, but his versatility, speed, and contact ability will give him a good chance at making it.
Professional comparison: Everyone at the start of the year was comparing Curcio to Mookie Betts while he was tearing up Rome, and I think there’s some apt comparisons in skills and size, but I think he’ll probably fall as more of a Mookie-light.
Likely 2016 starting destination: The Braves could be aggressive and move Curcio to AA Mississippi to start 2016, but that likely depends on his performance in spring training.
Expected time of arrival: 2017
53.Joseph Odom, 23 (1/9/92), C, Carolina
Stats: .222/.285/.403, 7 HR, 8.2% BB, 21.8% K
I’m sure this one will surprise some people about the same way it surprised people when Atlanta chose Odom as one of the team’s representatives in the Arizona Fall League. The simple fact is this: Odom can flat-out catch. He has the appearance behind the plate like he is in absolute control, and I’m sure his pitchers enjoy that feeling. He’s not got the natural talent of a guy like Christian Bethancourt, but I think he’d compare to the hard-working style of A.J. Pierzynski. Pierzynski really had one skill offensively, and that was making consistent contact, and he pushed that into a long career as a starter. Odom has one real skill offensively, and it’s absolutely crushing a baseball. When Odom catches hold of one, it’s a no-doubt home run. Odom did repeat high-A this year, but I could see him moving quickly in the system once the team figures out its path with Bethancourt.
Professional comparison: When you watch Odom, the first name that instantly pops in your head is Jason Castro. He has a great confidence behind the plate, and he brings very solid power to the plate offensively, much like Castro.
Likely 2016 starting destination: I’d wager that some of his positioning depends on his performance in AFL, but I’d wager he’ll start in AA Mississippi.
Expected time of arrival: 2017
52.Sean Godfrey, 23 (1/2/92), LF/CF, AA
Stats: .257/.288/.360, 3.6% BB, 17.2% K
Godfrey was a 22nd round selection in 2014, and he’s really shown well above that draft slot ever since he arrived in the Braves system. After moving all the way to high-A in his short time in the system last year, he moved from Carolina to Mississippi this year. The results were more mixed in 2015, however. In high-A, Godfrey was slashing .304/.331/.425 before his promotion, but he fell off significantly in AA, posting only a .504 OPS. Godfrey’s calling card is his rangy defense, though his arm is not great, which led to him moving more to left field. The biggest hole in Godfrey’s game right now is his batting eye. While he has solid contact from the right side, his walk rate is tremendously low. The defense will push him forward, but his batting eye will be what determines if he makes it beyond the upper levels of the minors.
Professional comparison: In the field and on the bases, Godfrey reminds me strongly of Angel Pagan, but he has some work to do to get to Pagan’s offensive level.
Likely 2016 starting destination: I’d wager Godfrey will start out with AA Mississippi, and we’ll see how he does from there.
Expected time of arrival: 2017
51.Greg Ross, 26 (9/6/89), RHP, AA
Stats: 7-9, 137 ⅔ IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8% BB, 13.6% K
Ross is a fan favorite, which is why I’m sure I’ll hear some noise about him, in spite of him nearly being the oldest player on this entire list. Ross is the type of guy who you typically see on a AAA roster with average stuff across the board, but nothing that sticks out enough to push him beyond AAA to the majors. Those guys sometimes add a wrinkle, however, and they can push through, and that’s why I have Ross where I do. If he does push one of his pitches from average to plus, then he’s working with a more complete deck than many pitchers above him on the list, and he’s got the stamina built up in his arm to already consider a major league inning workload. Once concern I do have with Ross is that he’s at the point where he could be Rule 5 fodder after next season, so he’s really on a showcase season after 5 years spent in the Braves system following his selection in the 18th round in 2011.
Professional comparison: Ross’s stuff reminds me of Alfredo Simon, and when Simon is at his sharpest, he can go on extended runs like he did for much of 2014.
Likely 2016 starting destination: AAA Gwinnett
Expected time of arrival: 2016 late season
Next: 46-50
Atlanta Braves Top 100: 46-50
50.Alejandro Salazar, 19 (10/5/96), SS, GCL
Stats: .284/.352/.361, 9.1% BB, 14.6% K
Salazar was signed out of Venezuela before the 2014 season, and he acquitted himself quite well in his first experience stateside in 2015. Salazar is listed at 6’0, 170, and I’d wager that he’s still growing as my only viewing of him would have had me guessing more about 6’1-6’2 and 185, but he’s long and lean, so probably not the build to add a ton of power, but he does a nice job of squaring up balls and putting them in gaps. The best attribute of Salazar with his relative inexperience is his eye at the plate. He walked at a very solid rate, and he was able to hold his strikeout rate down as well. Salazar has a cannon of an arm, but his instincts at short aren’t tremendous, which is why he’s seen some time at 3B and 2B in his two seasons in the Braves organization. I could see Salazar being a solid 3B if he gets much bigger or even possibly moving to CF. Salazar at the plate has not shown a ton of power, but he uses his speed well in base running. I heard very little about him from outside sources, but guys who saw him in person spoke very highly of Salazar. I’m curious to see how he develops.
Professional comparison: The comparison is not mine, but I’ve heard Ruben Tejada as a comparison for Salazar from scouts, so I’ll go with it here.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Danville
Expected time of arrival: 2019
49.Bradley Keller, 18 (12/15/96), LF, GCL
Stats: .245/.321/.350, 8% BB, 30.9% K
Keller was selected in the 15th round this last June out of high school in North Carolina. The outfielder is a complete toolshed, flashing power, speed, and the ability to hit balls well out of the zone to all fields. The issue with Keller was two-fold – he wore down heavily as the season went on, and his strikeout rate makes such slumps often difficult to come out of. I saw him early in his time, and he caught my eye with his raw athleticism. Keller represents the type of guy that the Braves have targeted since they overhauled their scouting department after the departure of Frank Wren. He’s got tremendous upside, but he also has a very low floor. He could explode up the rankings next season or be out of baseball in two seasons. Guys like that have the chance to become huge stars, and that’s the type of guy that seemingly was not pursued in Wren’s time in the GM seat.
Professional comparison: Michael Taylor made his first big league impression this year at 24, and Keller could be a guy who takes time to develop.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Danville
Expected time of arrival: 2020
48.Carlos Castro, 21 (5/24/94), 1B, Danville
Stats: .319/.340/.412, 3.7% BB, 19.5% K
Castro was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2011. He’s taken some time to work his way to the US and succeeding at Danville this year. Castro was signed as a catcher, and he moved to first base as he gained size. Castro has added 3 inches in height, and I’d estimate he’s added 40 pounds to his size, and not all bad weight. Castro may have the most raw power just short of Austin Riley in the system. Castro does have defensive limitations, but he has a bat with a ton of potential. I really want to see how Castro adjusts to full-season ball. Castro’s biggest knock is that he struggles with good breaking stuff, but he has shown the ability to hit even fastest fastball. I witnessed Castro take a 96 MPH fastball off the wall to right-center, which is a feat many hitters at the short-season level can’t claim.
Professional comparison: His walk rate and strikeout rate led me to C.J. Cron quickly, but the more I looked at it, the more the comp worked – “bad body”, big power, and defensive limitations.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Rome
Expected time of arrival: 2019
47.Brandon Barker, 23 (8/20/92), RHP, AAA
Stats: 12-10, 146 ⅔ IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.7% BB, 17.8% K
Barker was selected in the 16th round in 2014 out of Mercer University in Macon, GA. The 6’3 righty has average stuff all around, but he excels in his location of that stuff, keeping it low in the zone. Barker led the organization in wins and did very well in Carolina for most of the year. He was bumped to Gwinnett for a couple of spot starts and acquitted himself quite well. He’ll not blow anyone away on the mound physically or with stuff, but Barker simply gets the job done, as seen by the numbers: 13/27 starts going at least 6 innings, a streak of 8 straight 6 inning starts. Barker will be someone to watch next year as he has shown to be quite valuable at every stop so far.
Professional comparison: Anthony DeSclafani was similarly downplayed throughout his minor league career and was even argued to not be “valuable enough” for Mat Latos this offseason, but he’s definitely shown his value, and Barker has similar pitch types and results so far.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Barker will likely start at AA Mississippi, but his solid showings in Gwinnett last year may show his readiness to jump forward as an inning-eating guy.
Expected time of arrival: 2016 late season
46.Chris O’Dowd, 25 (10/4/90), C/RF, AA
Stats: .304/.429/.468, 18.2% BB, 19.2% K
Acquired in the David Hale trade during spring training, the expectations were low for O’Dowd after he struggled with a .676 OPS in a half season in the hitter-friendly Texas League for the Rockies. Instead, O’Dowd was locked in offensively from day one, showing his typical good eye, but displaying tremendous power compared to his previous stops in the minors. O’Dowd had always displayed solid athleticism, stealing as many as 23 bases in a season. O’Dowd was a mediocre defensive catcher when he was acquired, so the fact that he was moved out to the outfield isn’t surprising. What surprised everyone was the PED suspension that ended O’Dowd’s season June 10th. We’ll have to see what O’Dowd returns in 2016, but if he’s 90% of what he showed in 2015, that’d be a valuable guy off the bench with the ability to play corner outfield and catcher and switch-hit.
Professional comparison: The guy who he reminds me most of is Ryan Doumit, but of current players, John Jaso has the closest skillset to what O’Dowd has shown thus far.
Likely 2016 starting destination: AA Mississippi Braves
Expected time of arrival: 2017
Next: 41-45
Feb 23, 2015; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Jason Hursch fields a ground ball during spring training workouts at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves Top 100: 41-45
45.Anthony Concepcion, 20 (3/23/95), LF/1B, DSL
Stats: .308/.410/.451, 23 XBH, 12 SB, 9.9% BB, 16.9% K
Concepcion was signed before this season out of Venezuela. A late-bloomer, Concepcion was considerably older than most of his teammates on the DSL Braves. Regardless of age, he showed tremendous blend of power and speed that would leave nearly anyone who watched him thinking there was a lot of possibility to his future. Concepcion primarily played 1B and LF, and he showed there was plenty of future in left field. Concepcion’s biggest deficiency defensively is his arm, which is below average at best. If there’s any future to Concepcion, he’ll need to show plenty in the next season or two to have a chance as a prospect. Hopefully we’ll see him stateside to start that push in 2016.
Professional comparison: Concepcion has more speed than Logan Morrison, but he has a similar defensive profile and batting eye, so LoMo is a guy to consider when thinking of Concepcion’s future.
Likely 2016 starting destination: GCL
Expected time of arrival: 2019
44.Jason Hursh, 24 (10/2/91), RHP, AAA
Stats: 34 appearances, 15 starts, 97 ⅓ IP, 5.18 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 8.4% BB, 14.7% K
Coming into the 2015 season, the discussion was about how Hursh could be a great inning-eater starter or a shut down reliever at the back-end of a bullpen. 2015 showed Hursh performing neither. He struggled mightily in the rotation, and when he was moved to the bullpen, he really didn’t show any improvement in stuff whatsoever. The review is short for Hursh, and that may bug some who think he’s much too low on this list, but he’s not shown anything positive to write about from 2015.
Professional comparison: Now that he’s in the bullpen, Hursh’s best comparable is former Brave Jim Johnson. We can hope that he finds the 2011-2013 version of Johnson.
Likely 2016 starting destination: AAA Gwinnett
Expected time of arrival: 2016
43.Omar Obregon, 21 (4/18/94), 2B, Rome
Stats: .274/.336/.317, 31 SB, 7.6% BB, 11.6% K
Much of the attention was on his double play partner, but Obregon had a great season in 2015 along Ozzy Albies. Obregon was a 2011 IFA signee out of Nicaragua, a market that the Braves are doing well researching currently that is fairly untapped in the Latin market. Obregon has been moving up a step at a time in the minor league system, and he’s shown well at each level with the glove, and his bat has been solid in his last two stops, including his first exposure to full-season ball. Obregon’s got a very good range and an average arm, making him an excellent guy at second base long term. Obregon hasn’t shown a lot of power, and his 5’10, 150 frame doesn’t exactly scream power hitter, but he has a solid bat path that could produce a good amount of doubles and triples down the road.
Professional comparison: He had a breakout this season, but DJ LeMahieu presents a very good comparison for where Obregon could top out with his skill set.
Likely 2016 starting destination: high-A Carolina
Expected time of arrival: 2018
42.Collin Yelich, 22 (10/1/93), C, GCL
Stats: .242/.369/.306, 15.3% BB, 10% K
Christian’s brother was a 2015 29th round draft pick by the Braves, and he came into the season without a lot of hype. Instead, he showed a ton of athleticism behind the plate in his long, 6’2 frame, and he showed a tremendous eye at the plate. Yelich shared time behind the plate in GCL, so he didn’t get a lot of the exposure, but he will get more of a chance to flash his solid glove skills and eye at the plate in 2016. I would love to see him in full season ball, but I’d bet that he moves up to Danville for advanced rookie ball.
Professional comparison: While he was probably overused early in his career, Kurt Suzuki has had a very solid career as a backstop. Suzuki always had tremendous athleticism behind the plate, which is definitely Yelich’s calling card currently.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Danville
Expected time of arrival: 2019
41.Kyle Kinman, 25 (9/25/90), LHP, AA
Stats: 44 appearances, 51 ⅔ IP, 2.09 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.5% BB, 28.8% K
Kinman was on my radar for nearly all of 2015 with his tremendous strikeout rate. The 25th round selection out of Bellevue University in Nebraska in 2014 showed poise as he moved up three levels in 2015. Kinman mixes a 92-94 mph sinking fastball along with a hard slider from the left side. His high leg kick seems to make his pitches explode as the hitter adjusts from the leg angle to the arm angle. Kinman is especially effective against lefties. Kinman’s delivery is clean and repeatable, so he’s not a guy whose small stature (5’11, 185) should really raise any red flags.
Professional comparison: Their stuff is different as is their build, but Antonio Bastardo and Kinman have very similar results on the field, especially against left-handed hitters.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Kinman should get every opportunity to make the Atlanta Braves bullpen in spring training, but I have a feeling the team will start him at AAA Gwinnett with a quick path to the majors if he continues sitting hitters down at the same rate as he has thus far.
Expected time of arrival: 2016