Atlanta Braves Top 100 Prospects: 81-100
Feb 23, 2015; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher
Mauricio Cabreraruns during spring training workouts at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves Top 100: 96-100
100. Zach Quintana, 21 (4/15/94), RHP, Rome
Stats: 113 ⅔ IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7.4%, 14% K
The return in the Kyle Wren trade, many Braves fans would probably be upset if they were told before the season that Wren’s trade would only return the organization’s #100 prospect, but that isn’t a knock on Quintana at all. Quintana started the season as a swing man for Rome, but by the end of the season, he was the anchor of the team’s rotation and its most consistent member. Quintana came into the season with scouting reports that were much less than glowing, and by and large the reason for those poor reports was his previous struggles to command and control his low-90s heavy fastball. This year, that wasn’t the issue, and his change up and curveball both played up as a result. He’s not a big guy at around 5’11-6’ with a fairly lean build, but he certainly showed an ability to pitch in repeating low-A in 2015, and there’s hope for an inning-eater type to emerge here.
Professional comparison: While Jeremy Guthrie isn’t a name that will conjure up thoughts of Cy Young awards in Quintana’s future, that’s who he really reminds me of. I’ve never been blown away by Guthrie, but when he is locating his fastball where he wants it, his average secondary offerings allow him to eat up innings of league-average pitching, as evidenced by Guthrie’s 5 200-inning seasons with a career 98 ERA+.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Carolina
Expected time of arrival: 2018
99. Mauricio Cabrera, 22 (9/22/93), RHP, AA
Stats: 48 ⅓ IP, 5.59 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 15.7% BB, 23.8% K
The Braves made the move of Cabrera to the bullpen full-time in 2015, and you’ll notice in my rankings, being moved to the bullpen knocks you down pretty dramatically in my rankings. Cabrera still has the same “holy cow” stuff with an upper-90s fastball and a slider that breaks multiple planes, but he also has no idea where it is going as he throws it, and he has a bad tendency to over-throw in tough situations, which makes me worry that his bullpen conversion may not end up curing what ails Cabrera. His overall numbers aren’t skewed by a struggling promotion, either. He was pretty much a mid 5’s ERA guy all season long who put on a lot of base runners.
Professional comparison: While he’s had a solid big league career, most relievers would not find John Axford as a great comparison to attain, but that’s Cabrera right now, a guy with incredible raw stuff, but needing to be able to find location for any success. Cabrera will return to Mississippi most likely to start 2016, and a step under a 10% walk rate would sky-rocket him toward the majors.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Mississippi
Expected time of arrival: 2016 late season
98. Patrick Weigel, 21 (7/8/94), RHP, Danville
Stats: 51 ⅔ IP, 4.53 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 10.9% BB, 20.6% K
Weigel was drafted by the Braves in the 7th round in June, and he turned some heads in Danville with a blistering fastball that touched triple digits on some guns and registered consistently in the upper 90s on the top end. The issue is that he has minimal feel for a third pitch, and his slider is a hard slider, meaning it has more velocity than break, and it showed with his very high hit rate for a guy hurling 100 MPH heat. Weigel does also struggle some with repeating his delivery, more in his arm slot than in repeating anything else in his delivery, with his best stuff when he’s a pure ¾ delivery, but when he presses, he finds himself finishing between ¾ and sidearm, and when he does that, he shows the ball a long time.
Professional comparison: Tyson Ross came immediately to mind the first time I saw Weigel, and the more I saw him, the more the comparison makes perfect sense. Weigel’s secondary stuff is on the same caliber as Ross’s, but his delivery issues will be the thing that holds him back from achieving that sort of level as a starter. Ross was always a guy who was considered to have a floor as an elite reliever, and I think Weigel can also be considered in that class as his velocity and hard slider would work well in the back-end of a bullpen if he doesn’t work as a starter going forward.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Rome
Expected time of arrival: 2018
97. Gabriel Henry, 19 (11/16/95), RHP, DSL
Stats: 44 IP, 3.07 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.7% BB, 16.7% K
Henry was signed July 2012 out of Panama, and his scouting report upon signing was that he had no change up, but if he could develop one, his low-90s stuff and his curveball could have him leaping up the system like his country-mate Randall Delgado once did in the Braves system. It took two years to really develop that change up, but he has not only learned a change, but he’s also learned how to make his curve a strike pitch rather than a chase pitch, and that drastically reduced his walk rate to the point where he could have a future in the big leagues. Henry could come state side to the GCL squad in 2016, and it would be interesting to see how he builds on his leap forward in 2015.
Professional comparison: Jorge de la Rosa may have had a higher prospect pedigree coming up, but in reviewing his major league performance, you quickly see the similarities with Henry. When de la Rosa’s fastball is locating well, even though it’s low-90s, his secondary stuff plays up to the point where he’s a very solid #3 starter.
Likely 2016 starting destination: GCL
Expected time of arrival: 2020
96. Justin Ellison, 20 (2/6/95), LF, Danville
Stats: .247/.313/.416, 5 HR, 6 SB, 9.1% BB, 18.9% K
Ellison was drafted by the Braves in the 12th round out of Western Oklahoma State College, and most thought he would require a good chunk of change to keep him from going to a “big” school out of CC. He had high level talent, but his signing “demands” likely dropped him out of the 6th-10th rounds, where most teams aim to save money by drafting college arms, including the Braves in 2015. The Braves’ selections of college arms with low signing demands allowed for a selection of Ellison, and bringing talent like his into the system is a big thing. He was a high school kid from Columbus, Georgia who really established himself in JuCo. Ellison has power, speed, and solid defensive skills in the outfield. He’d probably grade about a 50 power, 55 speed possible sort of guy, and if he can continue to improve his eye at the plate, there’s a very solid player that could shoot up this list.
Professional comparison: Finding a good match for Ellison was proving hard, until I took a look at Christian Yelich. While Yelich has ridiculous talent that Ellison doesn’t have, what Yelich has done on the field is what Braves fans could put as a ceiling for what Ellison could provide the team.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Most likely Danville, unless the team wants to be aggressive and start him at Rome.
Expected time of arrival: 2019
Next: 91-95
Jun 28, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jeff Locke (49) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the third inning at PNC Park. The Braves won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves Top 100: 91-95
95. Matt Withrow, 22 (9/23/93), RHP, Danville
Stats: 48 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.7% BB, 16.7% K
Braves fans eagerly await Chris Withrow’s arrival in the bullpen after acquiring him this summer, but the Braves decided one Withrow wasn’t enough in the system, selecting Matt with their 6th round selection. Matt was a two-sport star in high school, being a ranked recruit in both baseball and basketball, and you can see his athleticism on the mound as well as his athletic build. Withrow’s claim to fame, as is the case with a number of the Braves’ 2015 arm selections, is his high-end velocity. Withrow is a guy who launches a 96+ MPH fastball that is very heavy along with a slider, and he has a high floor as a reliever, but definitely could have a future as a starter. I got to see one start of Withrow’s this summer, and my biggest worry there is that his athleticism may hinder him in that he is a constant tinkerer on the mound, and his delivery was never really exactly the same. If he can keep his heavy fastball low along with his hard slider, he could move up as a solid starter.
Professional comparison: With Derek Lowe out of the league, Withrow’s best match currently in the majors is Kyle Gibson with the Twins. Gibson had a high prospect pedigree, and he’s struggled at the MLB level to be consistent in the same ways that Withrow did in college and at Danville.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Rome
Expected time of arrival: 2019
94. Blair Walters, 25 (11/8/89), LHP, Carolina
Stats: 6-8, 135 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.2% BB, 15.4% K
The Braves have developed a reputation for doing a tremendous job scouting independent league ball, and the first indy league find that we’ll talk about on the list is Walters. Walters repeated high-A after being signed in 2014. While he’s no spring chicken, Walters has the sort of average to above-average combination of stuff that could allow him to move quickly. He reminds me a lot of the collection of “pitchability” lefties that the Braves produced at the end of the 90s and into the early 2000s. Walters isn’t known for huge breaking stuff, but when watching him pitch, he really does well when he keeps his breaking stuff down and in on lefties and leans on his change up with righties. 2016 in Mississippi could be very interesting to see if Walters jumps up a couple of levels to offer a back-end of the rotation lefty for the Braves.
Professional comparison: Former Braves prospect Jeff Locke jumps immediately to mind when you watch Walters, in size, stuff, and composure on the mound. I always liked Locke more than I really should have based on his pure stuff, but he’s turned out to be a very solid major league pitcher.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Mississippi
Expected time of arrival: 2017
93. Chad Sobotka, 22 (7/10/93), RHP, Rome
Stats: 37 IP, 6.32 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 12.6% BB, 12.6% K
Sobotka and Max Povse were paired as twin towers (Sobotka is 6’7, Povse 6’8) in Rome this year, but Sobotka really struggled at the level due to injuries and location problems. Sobotka would have been an early round selection if not for injuries before his selection in 2014 in the 4th round. Sobotka’s injury was to his back, which is a major concern with a guy at his height. He throws from a high arm slot, just above a ¾ slot, so there’s great downward movement on his high-90s fastball and slider. His change up is a work in progress still, but the Braves certainly still think they can get a starter out of Sobotka. Hopefully, he’ll have more luck in a return to Rome in 2016.
Professional comparison: His height and arm slot reminds me a lot of Chris Young, but their stuff is very different. While they both tend to be fly ball guys, Sobotka does such with a high velocity mix while Young does it with more off speed stuff. Young’s production, however, could be a good idea of what to expect from Sobotka.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Rome
Expected time of arrival: 2019
92. Trey Keegan, 22 (5/11/93), C, Danville
Stats: .267/.343/.314, 10% BB, 11.9% K
While a cold weather guy out of Bowling Green University that the Braves selected in the 14th round of 2015, Trey Keegan showed little signs of being over his head as the season wore on in Danville. Keegan is an elite defender, with most of his college scholarship offers coming from the mound when he was a high schooler. His arm strength, even after TJS in college, is elite, and he has excellent athleticism behind the plate. Keegan at the plate likely won’t ever be a 20 home run guy or hit .300, but he has a good eye and doesn’t strike out often, which provides some very nice value.
Professional comparison: Upon seeing Keegan, I instantly thought of Carlos Ruiz in his physical stature, and the skills fit the comp. I could see Keegan be a guy who doesn’t hit the majors until 24-25, but then having a 5-year run as a solid defensive catcher with above-average offensive numbers.
Likely 2016 starting destination: The depth of the position is the main thing that could lead to Keegan returning to Danville, but he certainly wouldn’t be out-of-place in Rome this year.
Expected time of arrival: 2019
91. Chase Johnson-Mullins, 21 (7/19/94), LHP, Danville
Stats: 25 ⅔ IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 14.5% BB, 17.9% K
While you’ll see along my list that I tend to de-value bullpen guys, Johnson-Mullins has two major factors that pique my interest – left-handed and throwing triple digits. CJM, as he’s referred to by a number of guys affiliated with the Braves, was a 13th round selection in June, and from first glance, he’d make you wonder why he wasn’t working as a power forward in the NBA. His B-Ref page lists him at 6’9 and 280 pounds, but I’d be surprised if his real weight didn’t start with a 3xx. Conditioning will likely be a concern with Johnson-Mullins as he moves through the system, but a lefty with his velocity and nasty breaking stuff could move very quick, hence the early expected time of arrival in spite of just starting full-season ball this coming year. CJM is still really struggling with day-to-day feel of his curveball after coming back from Tommy John surgery after high school. However, with legit high-90s stuff that has touched 100 by report, he’s goign to be fun to watch.
Professional comparison: While the 6’0” Mike Dunn physically looks nothing like the 6’9” CJM, the success and struggles the former Braves lefty has had in the major leagues is likely what Braves fans should expect to see with CJM as he hits the major league level.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Rome
Expected time of arrival: 2017
Next: 86-90
September 30, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels right fielder Kole Calhoun (56) slides into third base in the fifth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves Top 100: 86-90
90. Robby Nesovic, 21 (3/31/94), 1B/3B, GCL
Stats: .242/.377/.293, 6 SB, 15.6% BB, 18% K
Nesovic was drafted by the Braves out of the University of California – Santa Barbara in the 27th round in 2015. Most would see a guy drafted that late from college and think “org filler”. Nesovic in college was even a utility guy, playing 2B/3B/1B. While he’s not likely going to play much at SS, Nesovic does have a tremendous eye at the plate, and his .377 OBP in the Gulf Coast League was no fluke. Offensively, he really does not have a skill that stands out, likely not going to ever hit .300, hit 20+ home runs, or steal 20+ bases, but he’s got an above-average eye that will allow his average skills across the board to play up offensively. I don’t know that the Braves will move him to Rome to start 2016, but that level of move wouldn’t surprise me at all as he’s the type of guy who never stands out along the way, but ends up having a ten-year career as a utility guy, and ends up as a starter a couple of seasons in the league.
Professional comparison: While currently, Justin Turner is the best comparison to Nesovic’s skill set, the guy who I see when I watch Nesovic is Bill Mueller. While Nesovic doesn’t have Mueller’s contact skills, he has that same ability to recognize pitches that Mueller had and similar defensive skills.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Danville
Expected time of arrival: 2019
89. Joey Meneses, 23 (5/6/92), 1B, Carolina
Stats: .239/.298/.327, 7.4% BB, 18.5% K
Many will look at Meneses’ final line and wonder how he even ended up on this list. He caught my eye earlier this year, though, and I just can’t shake how solid his swing is. Meneses’ big issue is pitch recognition, but when he gets his solid right-handed swing on the ball, he puts a solid drive into the ball. Meneses is still quite raw as he was signed at 19 out of Mexico, and he’s shown to be a slow learner, often relying on his natural skills rather than waiting for the best pitch of an at bat. Meneses does have the ability to play the outfield at a very solid level, though he did play most of his time at first base in 2016.
Professional comparison: Meneses’ swing reminds me a ton of Kole Calhoun’s swing. He’s not the high-level defender in the outfield that Calhoun has shown to be, but he’s a guy who, like Calhoun, would be a guy hitting the majors at 25ish.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Depending on where he’d get the best instruction, I could see Meneses at Carolina or Mississippi.
Expected time of arrival: 2018
88. Jason Laguna, 19 (1/8/96), RHP, DSL
Stats: 4-0, 33 IP, 2.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 5.1% BB, 21% K
Signed out of Nicaragua in 2013, Laguna struggled in his debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2014 with his control. Laguna is known for his breaking stuff, only offering a low-90s fastball, but his tremendous reduction in his walk rate is one to watch going forward. Laguna may come state side this year, but he’s still a ways off as he works to control his off speed stuff at a level that could be effective in the majors.
Professional comparison: Also a guy who leads with his breaking stuff, Erasmo Ramirez is a quick comparison to Laguna, and Erasmo also happens to be from Nicaragua. Laguna, like Ramirez, could jump levels fast once he gets stateside.
Likely 2016 starting destination: GCL
Expected time of arrival: 2020
87. Bradley Roney, 23 (9/1/92), RHP, Carolina
Stats: 33 appearances, 11 saves, 48 ⅓ IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 17.8% BB, 35.4% K
After being drafted in the 8th round of the 2014 draft, Roney leaped up three levels in 2015, and interestingly, he performed better in Carolina than he did in Rome. Roney has high-end velocity and a ridiculous slider. Roney was a two-way guy in college, and now that he’s just pitching, you can see that his velocity jumped from 95 to topping out at 98 last year. The other thing that usually improves when a guy focuses on just pitching after working both ways is command, and Roney’s slowly progressed through the season, but by the end of the season in Carolina, his command was tremendous.
Professional comparison: Justin Grimm moved through the minor leagues as a starter, but after the Cubs moved him to the bullpen, he’s put up the sort of numbers that we can hope to see from Roney in the future. They also have similar builds and athleticism off the mound.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Mississippi
Expected time of arrival: 2017
86. Kelvin Estevez, 19 (11/17/95), RF, Danville
Stats: .264/.304/.350, 5.4% BB, 32.4% K
The Braves signed Estevez in 2013 out of the Dominican for a six-figure bonus, and the power just hasn’t shown up – yet. The swing is absolutely there, but Estevez has poor bat control and pitch recognition at this point in his development. He’s got solid athleticism and could play well in right field with a power arm in the outfield and solid defensive outfield range, but he’ll go as far as the bat will take him.
Professional comparison: Randal Grichuk was selected one choice ahead of Mike Trout, and he has similar swing and recognition issues as Estevez, but as was seen this year with Grichuk in St. Louis, if he gets on a hot streak where he sees the ball well, his poor plate discipline becomes less of an issue as his natural skills will put up numbers.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Danville
Expected time of arrival: 2020
Next: 81-85
Mar 15, 2015; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Tanner Murphy (80) throws a pitch during a spring training baseball game at Champion Stadium. The Toronto Blue Jays beat the Atlanta Braves 10-5. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves Top 100: 81-85
85. Sean Furney, 24 (6/2/91), RHP, Carolina
Stats: 7-12, 141 ⅓ IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 8.6% BB, 12.9% K
The Braves acquired Furney for cash from the Diamondbacks, and he was the pitcher of the year for Rome this year, however his 6 starts in Carolina in 2015 produced a 6.69 ERA and 2.01 WHIP. Furney has very underwhelming “stuff”, with a fastball that barely touches 90 MPH and breaking stuff that doesn’t really stand out. His biggest asset on the mound is his high arm slot plus his 6’5 height, which gives his pitches a nice downward movement, but he’s not got a lot of wiggle to any of his pitches, so he will live as a ground ball artist or pitch his way out of baseball.
Professional comparison: His name doesn’t enthuse big dreams, but Furney’s stuff is right along with Kyle Kendrick, especially the high arm slot and heavy upper-80s fastball.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Carolina
Expected time of arrival: 2018
84. Tanner Murphy, 20 (2/27/95), C, Rome
Stats: .193/.277/.312, 7 HR, 9.9% BB, 23.8% K
After being selected in the 4th round in 2013, Murphy has moved up one level at a time in the Braves system without much fanfare. While his contact rate is low, to say the least, he has shown very solid power, and most importantly, he has very good skills behind the plate. Of note, Murphy’s footwork is tremendous, especially in the run game. His arm is above-average, but not elite, yet he caught over 30% of runners attempting to steal in 2015. He likely won’t make a lot of top 100 lists because of the lack of major offensive skills, but a power bat with very good defensive skills can move well through the system.
Professional comparison: Chris Iannetta has made a career out of the same skill set Murphy currently possesses – power, good arm, excellent footwork.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Carolina
Expected time of arrival: 2018
83. Jorge Zavala, 21 (6/10/94), RHP, Carolina
Stats: 43 ⅓ IP, 2.28 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 13.5% BB, 28.5% K
The Braves tried to work Zavala as a starter after signing him out of Honduras in 2012. Once he converted to full-time relief work in 2014, he jumped up both rookie leagues in 2014 and went through both A-ball leagues in 2015. While I’ve not read any scouting reports on Zavala with high-90s velocity, the viewings I’ve had of Zavala showed mid-90s top end velocity with a LOT of wiggle to it along with a breaking ball that could buckle knees. He overthrew at times in Carolina, which straightens out his fastball, but when he relaxes and lets his natural movement work, he’s nearly impossible to hit, as evidenced by his .150 batting average against in Rome. Zavala would not surprise me if he moves up to Atlanta as soon as 2016 with his stuff, and he could be an excellent back-end guy.
Professional comparison: While he doesn’t have Brad Boxberger’s top end velocity, like Boxberger, Zavala has a ton of natural movement to his fastball that brings a high number of strikeouts. Also, like Boxberger, overpitching straightens out that fastball and makes him susceptible to giving up big hits.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Mississippi
Expected time of arrival: 2017
82. Alec Grosser, 20 (1/9/95), RHP, Rome
Stats: 4-7, 85 ⅓ IP, 7.17 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 15.8% BB, 12.2% K
Grosser was maybe my worst call of 2015. After seeing him pitch a little in 2014, I saw a lanky starter who could leap up the minors with his raw stuff. Instead, Grosser seemingly forgot the goal of pitching was to get the ball OVER the plate. From a guy who struck out a guy per inning in 2014, he dropped to half that in 2015, and his walk rate nearly tripled (by percentage, not by per 9 inning measures, though he more than doubled by that metric as well). Grosser has a lanky 6’4 frame and can get on top of the ball to create some wicked fading movement on his pitches when he’s working well. I’m curious about an injury possibly affecting Grosser as he just didn’t look comfortable on the mound in his motion, but he didn’t miss any major time. Grosser could also end up moving to the bullpen to focus on the fastball/slider combination and drop the change up.
Professional comparison: In stuff, Grosser is absolutely on par with A.J. Burnett, but he’s got to work to control that stuff to even sniff the success Burnett has had.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Rome
Expected time of arrival: 2018
81. Jose Pina, 19 (4/22/96), LF/RF, GCL
Stats: .280/.302/.360, 3.7% BB, 17.8% K
While the Braves have not traditionally excelled in Venezuela, they plucked Pina from Venezuela in 2014, and he produced well in the DSL in 2014. Moving to the GCL this year, he showed his ability to put the bat to ball was still solid, even if his on base skills struggled. Pina has big power ability, but he didn’t show it in 2015 in the GCL. That said, he showed ability on the base paths that I hadn’t seen in any scouting report previous to 2015. Pina has a very good arm in the outfield with average range for a corner outfielder.
Professional comparison: While defensively a corner outfielder, Pina’s profile strongly resembles Colby Rasmus at the plate. I think he has a little more contact ability and a little bit less power, but the swing and approach at the plate is very similar.
Likely 2016 starting destination: Danville
Expected time of arrival: 2019
Tomorrow we look at 61-80!