Sep 29, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; A tarp lays on the field after the game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles is postponed at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
The playoff races aren’t over yet, but the schedule could get a bit more complicated with something completely out of the hands of all parties involved: a hurricane.
In this case, the concerns are strictly for the East Coast of the US, but all interests from roughly South Carolina through the maritime provinces of Canada should be watching the progress of Hurricane Joaquin very closely over the next several days.
As of this morning, Joaquin sits just to the East of the Bahamas. It is expected to thrash around down there for another 48 hours or so before a high-pressure ridge to its north moves out of the way and allows the storm to escape.
One of the concerns is that whilst it’s wandering around in those warm waters, it is forecast to become a major hurricane (Category 3) and possibly stronger.
So Where is it Going?
That’s actually still an interesting question, but the timing is even more interesting. First off, here is a composite chart from the major weather models on their projections for Joaquin (graphics credit as noted):
That black “OFCL” line is the current official forecast path from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The “120” mark at the end of that line represents 120 hours, or 5 days, from the forecast run, which was 7 AM EDT this morning. So if that forecast pans out, that puts Joaquin near the SE tip of New Jersey on Monday morning… with the likelihood to hit close to New York City later that day… never mind that hurricanes often impact areas with a diameter of a couple hundred miles.
US Rainfall in past 24 hours, ending 7AM, Sep 30.
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Precipitation/usa.gif
In terms of hurricanes, this storm is probably not going to be particularly devastating (not a ‘Sandy’ storm), as it should weaken before a landfall… unless the rainfall forecasts also come to pass.
Right now the NE US is seeing the passage of a big rainmaker – one that postponed games in Cleveland, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and delayed a couple of others. Joaquin could dump 10-20 inches of rain over a very wide area of the country from North Carolina upwards – that on top of the already well-saturated ground. Flooding would be likely.
All that just in time for the playoffs.
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Scheduling Projections
The AL starts the playoffs this year – their Wild Card slated for next Tuesday afternoon… and most likely in New York City. Right now, it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if that game had to be delayed until Wednesday.
Pittsburgh is 3 games ahead of the Cubs, so it is likely they will host the NL Wild Card game. You’ll note that several of the weather models point Joaquin almost directly at that city, though the timing seems to suggest that it might be out of the way by the time a Wednesday evening game would begin… if there are no further local issues with power or flooding.
Toronto could thus also seem some impacts from this storm, though there won’t be any baseball played there until at least Thursday of next week.
The good news is that if there are any tie-breaker games to be contested, they would all take place out West – among some combination of Texas, Los Angeles, Minnesota, and Houston.
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Despite the mess of models shown above, the NHC is looking at just 2 general scenarios for the track: one that makes landfall between the lower Outer Banks of North Carolina and New Jersey, the other that takes Joaquin out to seas toward Bermuda. While they are leaning toward the US Landfall solution, the timing is the thing. Anything slower could really mess up the playoff schedules in the East.
Meanwhile – if you live in a flood-prone area in North Carolina – you might wish to consider flood insurance today. Google ‘Hurricane Floyd’, too.
Nope… no Atlanta Braves news in here this time – but this is published partly for public service and partly for general interest to us as baseball fans.