Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Phinally Philly, Orioles, Schedule

Aug 24, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baltimore Orioles center fielder

(10) is congratulated by third baseman

(13) after hitting a home run against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Are the Baltimore Orioles primed for an Atlanta Braves’ style rebuild?

GERALD FAREK / OUTSIDEPITCHMLB.COM

After a 5-4 win over the New York Mets on August 19, the Baltimore Orioles were 62-57 and held down the second wildcard spot in the American League. Since then, they are 4-15 and are resigned to playing out the string for the rest of the season.

And that’s not even the worst part of it. This time next season, they could be going through what the Atlanta Braves are enduring right now in the National League. The Braves, at 2-17, are the only major league team with a worse record than the Orioles since August 19. But unlike the Orioles, the Braves were never expected to challenge for a playoff spot and were hoping at best to finish at .500. They were 42-42 on July 7 but since then they are 13-42. That translates to a record of 11-25 even before the current 2-17 run.

So why are the Orioles ripe for a 2016 season like the Braves of 2015? Let’s compare this season’s Orioles team to the Braves team of 2014. They are strikingly similar. Like the 2015 Orioles, the 2014 Braves were challenging for a postseason berth. They entered September just 1.5 games out of the final wildcard spot but went 7-18 to finish four games under .500. Though the Orioles started their slide a little earlier, both teams struggled mightily down the stretch.

Like the Braves of last season, this Orioles team has poor plate discipline. They have the fourth-highest strikeout total in the majors while ranking only 25th in walks. Like last season’s Braves team, the Orioles have trouble scoring runs when they aren’t hitting homers. That has been especially true for Baltimore since the All-Star break. They are 19th in baseball in runs scored since the break after being eighth before it.

But here’s the kicker: like the Braves of last season, the Orioles this season have one of baseball’s worst minor league systems. Baseball America ranked it 29th entering the season, ahead of only the Detroit Tigers. Add in the fact that Chris Davis, who has more homers than anyone else since the start of the 2012 season, is a free agent and you begin to see a rebuilding scenario for the Orioles.

[ Ed. note:  Interesting take, and while I believe this writer is correct in seeing the similarities, the key question is whether owner Peter Angelos would tolerate – let alone endorse – such a rebuild.  GM Dan Duquette could probably do this, but it all comes back to the amount of freedom he has to work with.  Certainly Philadelphia is finally heading in this same general direction; other teams may eventually take the same avenue. ]

Next: A Schedule of Conflicts