Atlanta Braves Mid-Season Prospect Reports, Part 3

Apr 6, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Gloves and Gatorade cooler in the dugout before the game between the Detroit Tigers and the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

15. Dustin Peterson

The Good:

Typically, we try to present an objective view of the players that we’re reviewing, but I will quote the contributor directly in this case:  “I’m extremely biased here, because I was harping on Peterson very early this year, and I feel very vindicated, so take this review with that lens.”  That’s sounds like a good start, so let’s continue!

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Coming over from San Diego, Dustin had a very long swing with a lot of moving parts that led to high strikeout rates and poor contact rates. The Braves did some work with his swing that smoothed out the swing some, but the biggest thing that changed for Dustin is that he is not going for the ‘first okay’ pitch in an at bat, but he’s going after the best pitch for him and putting the best part of the bat on the ball more frequently.

He’s had a bit of a slump since returning from the bus crash, but he’s still had around a 10% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate all season, which are perfectly fine numbers with raw power that may only be behind Braxton Davidson in the entire Braves system. The other big move the Braves did this year was to move Peterson to left field. He’s transitioned very well there, and while he is no Alex Gordon in left, he’s shown more than adequate defensive instincts in left field that will allow him to play at higher levels.

The Not So Good:

The Carolina bus crash seemingly derailed what was a great season. He’s struggled to come back from the trip with more streaky hitting compared to his consistent approach before the crash. That said, he’s 20 years old at high-A, so there’s some expected fluctuation from a guy throughout the year in his performance as he learns a level and pitchers adjust to him at that level. The only other knock is that while Peterson is a very good athlete, displaying above-average speed, but he’s not translated that to the base paths in his career thus far, though I’m also not sure that he’s been asked to do that yet.

The Stats:

• Peterson started out on fire… hitting .309 after roughly the first month-plus of the year.
• Currently, after 105 games, 439 PA’s:  .258, 8 HR, 53 RBI, ~10%/19% BB and K rates, and slashing .258/.328/.362 for a .690 OPS and 104 wRC+.

TRENDING:

We’ll see how Peterson adjusts in his third trip through the league, and that will determine whether he opens 2016 in high-A or gets the bump up to AA Mississippi. He has shown a lot already this year, but the team may also not want to rush him with all the changes made this year in his swing and approach. He’s also 20, so he has time to move.  The trend is in the right direction, though not strongly enough yet to give him the upward arrow.

Interesting sidebar.  Dustin wasn’t even the best player in his own house growing up:  brother D.J. was selected as a 1st rounder in the same draft (#12 overall/Seattle; Dustin went #50).  But while Dustin is improving, D.J. has floundered this year with much lower numbers across the board in AA and AAA… that after a middling AA in 2014.  Scouting reports for each brother still suggest D.J. has higher upside, though Dustin may be improving on that while D.J. has hit a wall.

Next: Catching On at AAA

Oct. 14, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres outfielder Mallex Smith plays for the Surprise Saguaros during an Arizona Fall League game against the Salt River Rafters at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

16. Mallex Smith

The Good:

22-year-old Mallex Smith has been “pushed” throughout his minor league career.  In 2014 he split time between A and Advanced-A ball, hitting .305 and .295 respectively in the Padres organization.  When traded to the Braves, Mallex was started immediately at AA Mississippi and moved up to AAA Gwinnett in June:  4 levels in 2 seasons.  He now has roughly equal games and ABs with both clubs, and has shown that he can handle the pitching at each level… with hardly any loss in offensive performance along the way (we’ll explain more about that later).

On the defensive side, the hope has been that Mallex’s “80” speed would be sufficient to make up for any deficiencies in route-running at the center field position, and that seems to be the case.  Once arriving at the ball, he makes the plays more often than not:  6 errors combined at AA and AAA – down from 14 in 2014.

Mallex has 50 steals in 2015.  That number was 88 in 2014, but he was also caught 26 times last year.  This season, he seems to be picking his spots better, as he’s raised his success rate to 83% despite the higher levels.  He has no power to speak of (13 professional homers in 3-1/2 seasons), but will turn singles into doubles, doubles into triples.  I frankly wouldn’t be surprised if he someday hit for the cycle… with the homer being of the inside-the-park variety.

The Not So Good:

Whenever you push a prospect through the system, there will be growing pains, though one has to search with some considerable diligence to find them with Mallex.  But all of this has to be read in the context that Smith is 5th youngest player in the AAA International League.

By the end of July Mallex was hitting just .220-ish at AAA with a .265 OBP.  However, it was roughly at that point that he figured something out and completely turned around his upper-level season.

In fact, his avg/obp splits are rather remarkable:

• June:  .154 / .179 (6 games)
• July:  .240 / .290 (25 games)
• August:  .353 / .389 (23 games)

In other words, he’s now resumed hitting as well as he was at the AA level.  That’s pretty impressive.

Mallex has been used as a leadoff hitter most of the time, and that’s certainly the role he’s being groomed for – the Kenny Lofton / Billy Hamilton role.  He will continue to improve on his reads of where a ball will end up, and when that happens, he’s likely to be able to make some jaw-dropping, area-code-crossing catches in center field.

The Stats:

• AA:  (57 games, 240 PA).  .340 / .418 / .413 / .831 with 11% BB, 17% K and 140 wRC+
• AAA: (55 games, 249 PA).  .284 / .324 / .371 / .695 with 5.6%/14% BB/K rates; 100 wRC+

Again, a little perspective:  if he qualified for a batting title, Smith would be in a 15th place tie in the entire league with Adonis Garcia.  If you threw out June all together, he’s hitting .297 at AAA, and that August pace would sit atop the leaderboard for the league.

Additionally, Jose Peraza hit .294 at AAA, but was only on base at a .318 clip.  This is where Mallex has typically excelled, and his .389 for August is typical of his minor league performance.

TRENDING

It’s both a bit unfortunate and disappointing to hear that the Braves might not give Smith a cursory call-up in September.  Frankly, I think it would be helpful to get him acclimated to the majors, as it seems fairly evident that he could very well break camp next April as the Braves’ starting center fielder and leadoff hitter.

The long-term view is that the Braves are likely thinking ‘arbitration clock’… hopefully that doesn’t extend to the point of keeping him at AAA until mid-May of 2016, but… we’ll see how the off-season progresses and whether Cameron Maybin and Michael Bourn remain behind tomahawks.  A “3M” outfield of Maybin/Mallex/Markakis could be a rather formidable trio both offensively and defensively as one of several possible options.

Smith has come a long way in a hurry, and he’s now on the top step of this professional-level dugout.  He’s met every challenge to date and continues to demonstrate that he’s ready for the next one.

Next: A Big Swap

Mississippi Braves’ Mauricio Cabrera, August 2015. Photo credit: Alan Carpenter, TomahawkTake.com

17. Garrett Fulenchek

The Good:

The best thing to say about Fulenchek is that he was utilized to get more international bonus slot money, which the team feels is more positive.

The Not So Good:

Fulenchek was kept at extended spring after having some major issues controlling the ball last year. Sadly, those problems only multiplied in 2015. Garrett walked 30.8% of all batters faced, and while that is a very small (4.2 innings) sample, it seems he had shown the Braves what they needed to see to move him on.

Stats:

• 2015 w/Braves (Rookie level):  4.2 innings, 7.7 K/9, twice as many walks, 7.71 ERA
• 2015 w/Rays (Rookie level): 12.0 innings, 9.0 K/9, 14.25 BB/9, 5.25 ERA

TRENDING:

No longer with the organization, traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for international bonus slot money.

18. Mauricio Cabrera

The Good:

Cabrera has shown the increase in velocity (and there’s plenty of that) one would expect in moving to the bullpen from the rotation.

The Not So Good:

Pretty much everything else. Cabrera’s strikeout rate is 18.9%, and anything below 20% with Cabrera’s velocity and slider tells you what you need to know about his ability to get any wiggle with the fastball and locate the slider. His walk rate has gone down somewhat, but it’s still at 12.1%, or 5+ per nine innings, which is simply unacceptable at the major league level. He’s sporting a much better FIP at Carolina this year than last year at 3.54, but it’s not just luck that is dooming Cabrera to a near-6 ERA. He’s uncorked 8 wild pitches in 28 2/3 innings as an indication of his pure wildness.

And hey:  sometimes BABIP is high because you’re actually hittable.

The Stats:

• 2015 at Carolina (A+):  31 innings, 8 K/9, 5 BB/9, .309 BABIP, 5.52 ERA.
• 2015 at Mississippi (AA_:  14 innings, 12.5 K/9, 9.4 BB/9, .281 BABIP, 5.02 ERA.
• All appearances have been in relief roles.

TRENDING:

Cabrera has been on the radar for a half decade now for Braves fans, so he may be getting some prospect fatigue in the minds of many, but he is still 21 until after the season is over, so he’s still young enough that the bullpen could click for him.  He could become a very integral part of the major league bullpen, but that’s at least 2017 before he’ll even touch the major leagues, and that’s if he turns around 2015 and blows folks away in 2016.  If not, he’s heading in the direction of another Juan Jaime.

For now, then, we have to turn the arrow downward – partly due to lack of improvement; partly due to others starting to pass him up in the pecking order.

Next: International Man of Mystery

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19. Dian Toscano

I almost have to wonder whether Toscano actually exists at this point.  Last we’ve heard is that… there’s still no information.  Toscano is supposedly still working out in Orlando with other members of the Braves organization, but that he’s still not yet been cleared to join a club, thanks to some vaguery of law from either major league baseball or the US State Department.

Toscano applied for whatever waiver you’re supposed to have long before Hector Olivera did so… and well, you know how close Olivera is to the majors now while Toscano has lost an entire season of baseball.

20. Alec Grosser

The Good:

Grosser grabbed attention with performances in 2013 and 2014 in rookie ball levels that were beyond what one would expect with his slight frame (6’4″, but just 205) and 11th round draft slot. He is only 20, which right now is the main point in his favor.

The Not So Good:

Grosser simply fell on his face this year. Like Fulenchek, he’s walking more than he strikes out with Rome this year, and a recent demotion to the bullpen has really not shown any fruit yet as he’s walked 7 and struck out 3 in his 3 appearances as a reliever thus far.

Grosser may need a trip down to Danville to get his bearings (ed. note: this just happened yesterday), but his issues with keeping balls up has finally caught up to him at full season ball this year, and he will need to sharpen his secondary offerings to continue moving forward in the system.

The Stats:

•  Rome (A):  7.32 ERA in 15 starts over 26 games; 82 innings.  .272 avg against, 1.80 WHIP (64 BB/46K).
• Has not pitched at Danville as yet.

TRENDING:

Grosser is still just 20 and is getting rocked in his first experience at full season ball. He will have plenty of opportunities to make the changes he needs to with his pitches. His slider has had reports of tremendous upside, but he’s not shown any ability to locate it in any outing witnessed this year. If he can keep the fastball down and harness the slider, he could be an excellent reliever down the road.

More coming up late this week!

Next: Brewers Interested in Stealing Braves' GM-in-Waiting