Atlanta Braves: Monday’s Money Matters

May 14, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Bruce the pitching robot throws out the first pitch as students who built the machine from Paradise Valley High School watch during the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Washington Nationals at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Allard Still Unsigned… time getting shorter

This was the news from O’Brien this morning.  And here’s why fans don’t need to be terribly concerned about losing the #14 overall pick:

1.  Negotiating tactics.  Straight out of the usual playbook.  Friday, July 17 is the deadline for signing, so we’re 10 business days away… that’s about the time to start talking about how great UCLA will be for Allard’s development.  Okay, sure… the kid really wants to enroll for 3 years.

2.  There isn’t exactly a lot of wiggle room on the numbers regardless of tactics.  By my count, Atlanta could give him something between $0 (technically true, but the standard bonus for his draft slot is $2,842,400) and $3,379,105*.  That latter number is roughly equivalent to the bonus for the #8 draft pick (Allard was #14).

Note: the Braves will not exceed that figure.  To do so costs them their 1st round pick in 2016.

3. If Allard opts for UCLA, he would effectively be betting that he can do better than the #8 slot… in 3 years’ time at a (then) college junior.  Good luck.  Frankly, to make it worth his while, he’d probably have to get drafted in the top 5 or 6 overall to exceed $3.4 million by any significant margin.  As fickle as teams are, that’s a strong reach… even if he happens to go through those 3 years with no injury and no regression.

4.  But for the sake of argument, suppose he does choose college.  Then what?  The Braves would probably come out ahead:

Oh… and who knows?  Atlanta could still end up with Allard in 3 years when he’s next draft-eligible… but that would likely only happen if he drops way down the chart… losing his own bet.

Yes – it would be a shame to lose the best high school lefty in the draft… but not a disaster.  The Braves could weather that storm… but the higher risk is certainly on Allard.

* – Hat tip to twitter follower @NotFinnishStu:  I had not located the signing bonuses for Atlanta’s 11-13 round draft picks (neither MLB.com nor BA.com has those figures; the latter making it appear that they were in line with pool spending).  However, they signed for $150K, $125K, and $110K respectively.  Every dollar above $100K counts against the cap, thus that’s $85,000 less that is available to give to Allard.

End Game – The Pitcher’s Gambit

So do a think he ultimately signs?  Yes… I do.  Will it be close to a ‘max’ deal?  Likely.  The unfortunate part is that Allard is already missing some pro baseball being played in Danville – something that could get his feet wet before a longer full-year season in 2016.

But that’s what agents do sometimes.

Just sign the page, kid… frankly, the Braves have more reasons to walk away than you do.

Next: Yes - you guessed it: Another Trade