Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Why the Wood Woes?
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Alex Wood (40) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
The Change: Alex Wood’s Bond Between Stuff & Command
Is there a more perplexing pitcher this year than Alex Wood has been so far? His pitches are all there, in the same quantities, at the same velocities, and with the same shapes… and the results — when it comes to balls and strikes at least — are nowhere to be found. Even my favorite pitch type peripherals are all out of whack.
How does a pitcher with the same stuff fail so miserably?
Check out how little his stuff has actually changed. I mean, these are the same pitches.
| Pitch | X-Mov | Y-Mov | Velocity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 FA | 9.0 | 6.9 | 89.8 |
| 15 FA | 10.0 | 6.7 | 89.6 |
| 14 CH | 10.7 | 2.1 | 82.8 |
| 15 CH | 11.6 | 2.0 | 82.7 |
| 14 CB | -3.2 | -5.1 | 79.1 |
| 15 CB | -5.0 | -3.6 | 78.4 |
Well, okay, the curve has changed a bit. By PITCHf/x. If you look at Brooks Baseball’s cleaned-up values, the curve is about the same. And no mention of changing his grip on the pitch or anything.
So, his pitches look like they are about the same. The results have not been.
| Pitch | 14 Whiff | 15 Whiff | 14 GB | 15 GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FA | 6.0% | 2.6% | 45% | 55% |
| CH | 14.0% | 8.3% | 41% | 50% |
| CB | 15.3% | 8.8% | 62% | 57% |
He’s getting some more grounders, but it’s not enough to offset or explain the lack of whiffs.
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[ Ed. Note: there’s much more from Sarris at the link above, and I recommend that to you. I had been wrestling about the ‘What’s Wrong With Alex’ quandry… also ‘What’s Wrong With Julio?’, but that’s for another day. But Sarris did a better job, and I am happy to yield to this post of his.
As part of another look I was doing, I worked up Wood’s pitches per inning:
- 2013: 16.88 pitches per inning (6.2 balls, 10.7 strikes)
- 2014: 15.6 pitches per inning (5.48 balls, 10.16 strikes)
- 2015: 16.5 pitches per inning (6.17 balls, 10.34 strikes)
He’s not a lot different thus far, but an additional ‘Ball’ to every other hitter is significant – especially since Wood’s K/9 rate is way down: 8.91 to 6.21. It means that whatever strikes he’s throwing are getting hammered (.341 BABIP vs. .295 in 2014). You might look at the BABIP as the ‘luck’ factor, but I see it as a measure of pitch quality… and in general, the frangraphs piece above tends to agree. ]