Atlanta Braves, an early look at an imperfect team: Pitching

Atlanta Braves Rotation

Teheran, Wood, Miller, then pray for rain, right?  We all know the ol’ cliche and have likely used it a time or 2 when discussing the back end of the rotation. Make no mistake, our ace, Julio Teheran, hasn’t been ace-worthy early on.

In fact, Julio’s ERA at 3.71, has quite a bit of luck factored in as his FIP is 6.11, his WHIP is 1.41, and he’s having a difficult time keeping the ball in the park.  While his pitches all seem to be functioning like they have in the past (identical speeds/breaks), according to Fangraphs many have lost their effectiveness.  That would suggest location issues and listening and watching the games, I can believe that. Teheran has established himself as a top-tier pitcher for this organization and, if he stays healthy,  it’s only a matter of time before he settles in and finds his location once again.

In essence, one can say the same thing about Alex Wood.  Even though his FIP and ERA seem to coincide, (3.93 and 3.81), his pitches haven’t been as effective to date as they were last year even though speed/velocity are the same. His fastball which was a plus pitch for the young left-hander last year hasn’t been near as effective early on which would suggest that his location hasn’t been as worthy.  Wood, although less proven then Teheran, was consistent last year and should provide the Braves with the same formula this year. Just don’t expect a sub-3 ERA.

So far so good for Shelby Miller.  While his K/9 numbers have been dramatically down and he’s having to throw a ton of pitches to get outs, his velocity (which was the big concern) is consistent to his career.  Like Wood and Teheran, it’s likely just a groove thing and he’ll find his location in the next few starts. Obviously, the 0.90 ERA isn’t here to stay but a low 3, upper 2 is very possible.

Then, there’s the back-end. Aye… There’s nothing really positive to say. Thus far, the average velocity of Eric Stults’ pitches are meshing together and that’s not good. His fastball is sitting at 86, which is 1.3 MPH below last year, and his slider is sitting at 82, which is 2 MPH above last year.  In fact, 95% of his pitches this year range between 80&86 MPH. That’s not going to fool many batters.  For his career, Stults has relied on changing of speeds on his 4 pitches to be effective, with average velocities at 88, 80, 69, and 70.  He’ll have to find that again in the next few starts, or Braves will be asking him to pack his bags.

What else can be said about Trevor Cahill, other than I hope he improves. From ’10-’13, he was a consistent mid-to-upper 3s ERA pitcher and if he can find that again, he’ll be a good pickup.  Due to his salary, he’ll likely have a longer leash than that of Stults.