Projection: Atlanta Braves Have No Shot in 2015

Yesterday, Baseball Prospectus updated their PECOTA* projections for the 2015 season, and the Braves are not being given much of a chance.  In fact, it’s worse than last week’s numbers.

* PECOTA translates as ‘Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm’ – a mouthful, but a forced acronym so that the method could be named after former major leaguer Bill Pecota.

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Atlanta Braves

  • 73-89 record
  • 584 runs scored
  • 650 runs yielded
  • .246 / .298 / .365 team-averaged slash line

Right away, the question needs to be asked:  how do those numbers compare to the way 2014 ended up?

  • 79-83
  • 573 runs scored
  • 597 runs yielded (547 earned for an ERA of 3.38)
  • .241 / .305 / .360 team-averaged slash line

When we get toward the end of the Spring campaign, we’ll do a little more projection based on what we’ve seen, but right away, I’m certainly believing that while the Braves may not set the world on fire with their performance this year, there’s got to be a few more sparks than this.

Let’s look at those main categories briefly:

RUN SCORING

You could probably argue that there’s no place to go but up… and indeed, PECOTA credits Atlanta with just 11 additional runs (584) in 2015.

Unfortunately, that would still rank 29th in baseball, barely ahead of the Phillies (577) and a ways behind the Padres (624).  Next in order would be Cincy (631) and Miami (635).  Number 1 in the NL is Colorado (751), then the Cardinals (709).

Interesting, that Padres’ number.  You might think that with their entirely new outfield (Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Matt Kemp) that they might do a bit better.  Last year, they came in at 535, so I guess PECOTA is straining to raise that number by as much as a full run per game.

Breaking through 600 would be a good goal for this Braves’ team.  It would probably serve to validate Kevin Seitzer‘s approach, which today was endorsed by Chris Johnson.

So now, I don’t know that I personally expect the offense to start batting around with regularity, but if everyone ‘buys in’ to the new approach, then we should see improvement.

RUN PREVENTION

Shelby Miller (40). Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

This means “pitching”, and I’m puzzled at this projection.

PECOTA thinks Atlanta gives up 53 more runs in 2015 (650) – that’s an ERA increase of .33 over 2014’s 3.38 figure.

To put that in perspective, a rise to 3.71 would have placed the Atlanta staff 17th on the 2014 list… instead of 5th overall.

I don’t think I’m quite buying that.

  • Julio Teheran:  2.89 in 2014
  • Alex Wood:        2.78 in 2014
  • Shelby Miller   3.74 overall, but found something something important at the break and pitched to a 2.92 in the second half.
  • Mike Minor   was at 4.77, but even if his difficulties from 2014 re-surface, there’s no way he would be allowed to wallow in mediocrity again, given the other options likely available.  Note that even as bad as Minor was at times last year, they still held the staff ERA to 3.38.
  • Likewise, while we don’t know who will be #5 yet, he’ll probably have to pitch in the 5 ERA range to force the staff ERA up that much.
  • Additionally, the bullpen is looking strong.  Between Shae Simmons, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson and Craig Kimbrel, that’s a set of arms that should be able to keep the Braves “in” a bunch of games.

So 650 runs?  That would be a bad number.  I will suggest something around 620 as being more likely.  If that’s the case, that alone should lead to 4-5 more wins.

About Projections

Projections – including mine – from this far away are guesses based on averages, the expected use of players, and team depth.  Bad predictions should not be ignored, but at the same time, they can be questioned as part of an overall sanity check.

The offensive numbers?  Anybody’s guess is up for debate until we see what the team looks like on the field.  On pitching, I do think there’s a decent case that can be made for the projection being rather pessimistic.

15 days still until the army of pitchers and catchers report.  Can’t wait!

Next: The Top 5 Braves' Prospects for 2015

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