The Tomahawk Take Top 20 Atlanta Braves Prospects: 6-10

Jul 13, 2014; All Star Futures Game at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Entering The Top 10

Yanks Go Yard

A year ago at this time

, I had constructed my own list of the Braves top prospects.  In these 6-10 slots, I had penciled in the following names:

6. Christian Bethancourt
7. David Hale
8. Cody Martin
9. Victor Caratini
10. Luis Merejo

What a difference a year makes! Only Bethancourt remains both in our lists and with the organization.  Hale is now a Rockie.  Cody Martin is still just as good as he was, but he’s been overcome by events – namely a flood of new talent.  Caratini is now in the Cubs’ system.  LHP Merejo is now 20 years old and should be returning from an arm injury this year.  He’s still a prospect, but will be handled very carefully – possibly in the Gulf Coast League to start out.

As a quick recap, here’s the links to our previous prospect profiles thus far:

• 16 through 20
• 11 through 15

So with that look back, let’s now look forward:  here are the 2015 6th-through-10th-ranked prospects.

#10:  LHP Manuel (Manny) Banuelos

Oddly enough, given all of the trades, (Manuel) Manny Banuelos is the only member of this group who is not a home-grown Brave.  Obtained in early January in the trade for David Carpenter (one of them) and Chasen Shreve, John Hart probably fell all over himself to discover that he could get this Mexican-born southpaw from New York.  Of course, he probably had a similar reaction when learning that Kyle Kubitza could return Ricardo Sanchez.  That enthusiasm could be ratcheted back a notch, though.

The nearly 24-year-old Banuelos stands just 5’10” at 205 lbs., a size that modern scouts normally would characterize as undersized for a pitcher, particularly one that throws hard like Banuelos.  One scouting report suggests that he still generates mid-90’s fastball power due to a higher arm angle and “excellent” extension.

Banuelos was once an ‘untouchable’ prospect for the Bronx crew, being variously ranked anywhere from 13th to 41st overall between 2011 and 2012.  Then the specter of an old Yankee named Tommy John entered his life, costing him all of the 2013 and part of the 2014 seasons.  So things have certainly changed.  But it’s also possible that his troubles have run deeper.

Writing for ESPN.com, Wallace Matthews wrote this:

“It would be easy to trace Banuelos’ problems to the Tommy John surgery, but an organizational source refused to give Banuelos that out when I spoke with him Thursday night. “Last year, his stuff just wasn’t as good,” the source said. “He’s had control problems and he’s only been able to throw 100 innings in the past three years.”

When you look at Banuelos’ stats, it’s evident that he started running into problems at the AA level.  Fewer strikeouts.  Increased walks.  ERA in the 4-1/2 range.  Confidence is a big thing with pitchers… and often fleeting.  It is as if at that level, he stopped trusting his own ‘stuff’ and began nibbling.

Projection:  Depends on whether you wish to believe in the pre-surgery hype at this time.  The Braves seem to believe; the Yankees seem to think otherwise, as they clearly gave up on him once they saw no improvement, post-surgery.  Before that, the talk was of a pitcher in the upper half of anyone’s rotation.  Afterwards… he has dropped on many charts, and indeed could easily fall out of this Top 10 soon.  As such, Banuelos has the best chance in this group of #6-#10 to “bust”.

ETA to Majors:  Under the circumstances, Banuelos will likely have to re-prove himself at AA for a while.  Given the pitching now available in the upper minors, the Braves can afford to take their time with him and hopefully work him back into the shape he was when dominating in High-A (2010).  This could take some time.  2017?  2018?

#9.  RHP Jason Hursh

In 2014, I had Jason at #5.  This year, I actually had dropped him all the way to #14, though again, that was due to the incredible influx of newly-arriving talent.  Baseball America still is very high on him, holding him in their #5 slot.

I got to speak with Jason in late August while he was with the Mississippi Braves. He’s from a small Texas Christian High School, and has a quiet, polite demeanor about him.  He also seems to recognize his strengths and his needs.  When asked about some of the ups and downs he’d had last season (he has been shelled the day before), his reaction was essentially “well, some days are just like that.”

Jason is now 23, and was drafted in the first round (31st overall) in 2013 out of Oklahoma State.  He is already a Tommy John surgery survivor, having been through that while still at Stillwater.  At that time, he was touching 100 mph with his fastball, though he seems to have backed that down a bit.  Still, a low-mid 90’s fastball with “heavy” sinking action is a solid offering – one that will tend to both keep the infield busy and hold the ball in the park.

The Braves are pushing Jason through the system quite quickly:  Rome in 2013 and straight to AA Mississippi in 2014.  That leap in levels probably accounts for an uneven run in 2014, though overall he held his own with a 3.58 ERA over 148 innings.  His strikeout rates are not what you might expect of a power pitcher (5 per 9 IP), but he is doing that with good control (2.6 BB per 9).

Jason looks the part of a workhorse pitcher as well:  at 6’3″ 195 (officially, though I’d add 10 lbs. to that), he’s got the build for a durable starter – and indeed already has the innings’ build-up to get close to a 200-inning workload. The next question is “when”?

That’s the interesting bit for 2015:  Jason may end up having to repeat AA for some part of 2015 simply because there’s no few available seats at the table in AAA.  Cody Martin, Wandy Rodriguez, Chien-Ming Wang, either Eric Stults or Michael Foltynewicz could all be ahead of Jason in the new pecking order.  That would be unfortunate, for AAA is the next logical spot for Hursh.  My bet is that they do find a way to get him into Gwinnett.

All that said, the task of keeping pitchers healthy is difficult, and all it would take would be 1 or 2 bouts of arm soreness to get Hursh (and/or his M-Braves stablemate Williams Perez) moved up to Gwinnett.

Projection:  Middle of the rotation workhorse

ETA to Majors:  Difficult to say, given the new arms in the system.  Developmentally, the answer is 2016.  Depending on how other pitchers fare, I could see Jason offered in trade for some future need, though I personally hope not:  don’t overlook the contribution potential of this strong and steady Texan.

with a python. Source: BD’s twitter feed.

#8:  OF/1B Braxton Davidson

Yes, the Braves newly-modeled farm system is now so good that a 2014 first round draft pick only barely breaks the top 10.  The interesting part, though, is that of all the prospects we are profiling in the Top 20, Davidson is the only one here because of his hitting tool.

Braxton Davidson is still so young that the signing of his first professional contract was delayed until he turned 18 (last June 18th).  He hails from T.C. Roberson High School in Asheville, NC – a place firmly in Braves Country.  He was ranked 31st entering the draft and taken 32nd.  Oddly enough, he was also a part-time pitcher in high school, showing velocity up to 87 mph.

In the field, he profiles as a first baseman, but for obvious reasons, the Braves will be working him into a corner outfield spot for his early development years, a position that he’s also played often.

Davidson is a patient hitter – working counts, trying to keep walk rates high and strikeout rates low.  He certainly has power potential, hammering 3 home runs in 4 games as a Tournament of the Stars event… one of those guessed to be 500 feet (yeah – that from a kid just turning 18).  He features an advanced, quick stroke and likes to use the whole field.  All of those qualities are things the Braves would love to have in a middle-of-the-lineup hitter.

All that said, Davidson’s first professional foray with wood bats was a bit rough.  Low average (.243, 167 in the GCL and Danville), but the other features were present:  very high walk rates, very high OBP.

He has continued to work consistently on his hitting in the off-season… in fact, he’s had a pretty eventful “off-season” of work, it would seem:

That instagram link?  Yeah:  he’s working on hitting with Albert Pujols.

Projection:  scouting reports place him at a ’60’ score for projected power.  That’s probably Matt Holliday, Todd Helton kind of territory, which likely also matches his future spaces on the field.  Should be an above-average defender as well.  Should start in the outfield and could move to first base when Freddie Freeman‘s contract runs out.

ETA to Majors:  This is a kid who is obviously willing to work hard.  He will still need a couple of years to fill out physically (he’s already 6’2″-3″/210-ish, so he’s got a good start), but once that happens, I would expect a rapid progression.  He could start again in Danville this year, perhaps moving to Carolina at some point.  From there I could see AA in 2016, AAA in 2017, and the majors in 2018 if he is able to hit for average, as his profile suggests.

#6:  SS Ozhaino Albies

I don’t know who originally decided to go see Andruw Jones when he was growing up on the island of Curaçao, but thanks to that visit, the Braves once had a virtual lock on many of the kids coming thereafter from this baseball-blessed paradise.  The word has since gotten around.

Now comes along the next Big Thing… at all of five-foot, nine inches, 150 pounds, and barely 18 years old.

This could be your starting shortstop in a few years.

As Jim Callis reported yesterday in his “Almost Top 100” prospects list, Ozzy has the arm of a true shortstop… with “plus-plus” speed (grade: 65) and perhaps a bat (55) to match.

We caught wind of Ozzy in the midst of his first full season as a Brave when he was moved up to Danville.  Between there and his GCL debut, here’s the numbers:

• 28 walks, 26 K’s
• 22 steals
• OBP of .446
• batting average of .364

He even managed to pop a home run.  All of that in just 57 games.

So yeah – it’s still early.  That’s a lot of hype for a kid who wasn’t on any prospect chart a year ago – much less an organizational Top 10… much less a Top 10 Chart that’s suddenly this good.

But you might want to get onto Ozzy’s bandwagon, because it’s filling up pretty quickly:

• 5th on Callis’ Braves rankings
• 5th on BaseballAmerica’s chart
• John Sickels:  4th
• Fangraphs.com:  1st

That does beg the question – why do we have him lower?  That’s probably my fault – I had him 10th on my own list.  But that’s primarily because of the luster surrounding the group in my Top 9 along with the fact that I’m exercising some restraint until he gets a full season under his belt.

That next season could very well start out at Low-A Rome this year.  Ozzy will be awfully young for even that level, but we’ll learn a lot about him there.  If that test proves easy, then the Carolina League would be next… if he gets that far in 2014, then we’ll really know the Braves have something special going on.

Projection: Wow… hard to call from this distance, but… while Kiley McDaniel at fangraphs mentioned Francisco Lindor and Rafael Furcal, I’m tempted to mention Jose Altuve (though Ozzy is easily taller).  The difference – other than position – could end up being that Albies gets on base more often if that walk rate persists.

Regardless, we’re likely looking at a future shortstop who hits for average and can hit near the top of the lineup.

ETA to majors:  Optimistic outlook would say 2018 (he would just be 21).  Pessimism would say 2020.  There is the not-so-small matter of Andrelton Simmons‘ contract running through 2020.  But we’ll sort all that out if we get that far.

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That’s half of our Top 10.  Tomorrow we’ll see the Top 5.

Next: He's Baaaaack... Maybe