The Cuban Muscle Situation
(A Note to readers. You may have seen some of the information in a post last week that was later withdrawn due to copyright issues. Those have been resolved and I apologize for the unintentional error.)
Recent changes in diplomatic relations with Cuba may soon make it easier for Cuban baseball players to play in the majors. For now however the only way for players to get here is to defect. That causes multiple problems for the player and the teams deciding whether to sign them.
The Process Today
The process of defecting from Cuba is a dangerous one. A simple search on Yasiel Puig’s defection turns up tales of corruption, threats of physical harm and demands of unreasonable compensation from the smugglers. They’re criminals, not good Samaritans. The Cuban Government has been diligent in capturing and severely punishing those who attempt to escape the island and defectors often fear for their family’s safety.
According to the Thursday Review the process works like this. Once a player successfully defects there are certain administrative and political hoops they must jump through before becoming eligible. The first thing they must do is establish residency. Typically that’s been in Haiti or the Dominican Republic but a few have done it in Mexico and Moncada used Guatemala. That process takes weeks and sometimes months.
Establishing residency outside of Cuba automatically grants what’s called a general license allowing them to earn money here. In the summer of 2012 however MLB stiffened their personal requirement so that players also had to obtain a special license from the Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC ). That has added months to the process but the diplomatic moves of the past few weeks and pressure from Badler and Baseball America to explain the license process has changed the game.
According to Badler on Friday the OAFC wrote telling players they didn’t need the license and therefore existing request by players were moot and would not be dealt with. That mean MLB’s rule is dead and player should be start turning up in the system more quickly. The player also has to request that MLB declare him a free agent. That takes time as well, once again it can be weeks or months. This latest change should however make that process quicker. So the Cubans are coming, what can we expect the Braves to do?
Photo source unknown – uncredited.
The Price of a Super Cuban
There seems to be an ever increasing flood of Cuban players lately with varying degrees of talent. As the recent lessening of tensions take hold I expect that some kind of formal agreement allowing the players to leave for a percentage of their signing bonus or something equally unpalatable. They could also be added to the new international draft that is almost certain to be a part of the next CBA. For now however we get them in fits and jumps; some show spectacular power like Jose Abreu, some are just very good, some called “franchise changing players” without having played a day in our system and some too old to be prospects but still useful players. Before I look at what’s practical, a word about the one everyone seems to think we can sign.
Yoan Moncada
As I keep saying the reality is that Moncada is – at least in theory – a Lamborghini. It’s fun to look at him but we’re not equipped to pay for him. If you don’t think so I recommend you read all of Bed Badler’s Thursday piece Why Rich Teams Have The Edge For Yoan Moncada. He conclude it like this:
. . . you can comfortably count out teams such as the Indians, Twins, Royals, Pirates, Athletics and Mets when it comes to handicapping the Moncada sweepstakes. Plenty of teams will be interested in signing Moncada. Most likely, it’s the richest ones that will be fighting it out for him.
No he didn’t put the Braves in his list of teams counted out but the way he explained the implications and consequences of signing Moncada in his post the more obvious it becomes that we aren’t serious bidders in his auction. That isn’t anything to cry about, superstars are nice to have but adding all star players guarantees only a high payroll, not success. For verification contact Hal Steinbrenner and Arte Moreno.
The argument that the Braves are being cheap by not committing up to $60m current dollars and increasing arbitration salary on one player who won’t be major league ready for a year or more and stripping their ability to put a team around him doesn’t hold water. The other thing to be considered is who they are bidding against.
It’s a waste of time and resources to visit showcases and negotiate with agents for Moncada when the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox and Nationals among others have much deeper pockets that the Braves.
Dairon Varona
That’s not to say the Braves won’t be involved on very good players. Ten days ago they were among a cluster of teams who attended a workout by Dairon Varona. According to a report from Keith Law on ESPN (Insider Subscription required) scouts “from almost all MLB clubs” attended. Varona defected nearly a year ago and worked his way through the political maze necessary to play here. In that link there’s a video of part of the workout.
According to Obstructed View who also provided the comp chart below, Varona’s a 5’9” , 170lb centerfielder with okay but not great offensive numbers who would likely start at AAA.
That post suggests Varona and Alvarez who signed with the Orioles in 2013, were comparable bats while Varona was a better defender. Here are Alvarez’ stats since signing with the O’s.
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 1/22/2015.
Varona does appear to be pretty quick.
Law’s scouting report from the workout suggested that he agrees Varona will need time in AAA to work on his s swing before dealing with major league pitching. While the Obstructed View report suggested that because Alvarez’ signing for an $800K bonus was a precursor of what Varona would cost Law suggests that a shortage of players like him might drive the price up quite a bit.
“I think he’ll end up close to eight figures as a potential big league backup. . and the fact that the Cuban market is so overheated right now — it’s almost like every team has to have one, just to say they do — can only help him.
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Cuban second baseman Hector Olivera at the WBC.
Okay so we were wrong
Ben Badler reported today that contrary to the thoughts of writers here, the Braves held a private workout for Hector Olivera in the DR Today with John Coppolella, Fredi Gonzalez, Gordon Blakely and Roy Clark attending. That entourage seems to confirm a strong interest in the soon to be 30 year old second baseman. He’s represented by the same group as Dian Toscano would could make signing him easier as well.
There’s a scouting report on Olivera here. That report says he took some ground balls at third as well as second but hinted his arm wasn’t as good as it once was. For more details on Olivera check out Alan’s piece from earlier this week.
Conclusions?
Having a Cuban is the latest fad. Like most of these things however the talent pool isn’t infinite. Last week we learned that outfielder and Cuba’s center fielder in the last WBC Guillermo Heredia had defected. Historically it would take a bout a year before the 23 year old outfielder is available to sign but the changes in licesing could make him available as early as this summer. Badler ranked Heredia the #11 prospect in Cuba last year.
That’s A Wrap
Varona seems to fill a void in the Braves system but of course the same can be said for a lot of other teams and is up for auction now; auction being the operative word. Olivera seems like insurance against Peterson falling short and Callaspo being less than expected – though I don’t; expect much from him at second. It would also seem to support the idea that Peraza won’t be called up this season so he can get more at bats against good pitching and to keep his arbitration clock from starting early for no good purpose.
The “I gotta have one of those” mentality suggested in the last sentence is something Hart is unlikely to succumb to. He added the international slot money in order to use it strategically and for maximum impact. the total cost in bonus, penalties and salary for Moncada mean a player – or two or three players for Moncada money – like Varona makes more sense for Atlanta. Hart no doubt had his new team of Latin American scouts watching Varona and we know now they watched Olivera today. It would be a shock if they attended or conducted another of the Varona’s workouts and looked hard at more of the lesser know Cubans around. Whether they sign one or not will depend on what they see and the price.