Yesterday Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal wrote that the Rockies were shopping Charlie Blackmon for pitching and the Braves who need outfield help are/should be interested. Are they talking trade?
Who is Charlie Blackmon?
Blackmon was the Rockies second round in 2008. He made his major league debut in 2011 posting a pedestrian .255/.277/.296/.573 line. As a part time player 2012 and 2013 his numbers were better but last season was his breakout year. In 154 games posted a .288/.335/.440/.775 line with 19 homers and 28 stolen bases.
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Defensively he started as a center fielder but played all three outfield spots in Colorado and at best has been worth a DRS of 1. For those who prefer UZR he comes out at league average in left and below average in center and right. Much of that could related to playing in the huge outfield in Denver. Speaking of Coors Field, what about his home/road splits?
| Season | Home / Away | BB% | K% | BB/K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2014 | Home | 6.0% | 12.9% | 2.1 | .331 | .391 | .524 | .915 |
| Away | 3.3% | 17.0% | 5.1 | .241 | .269 | .348 | .617 | |
| ISO | BABIP | wRC | wRAA | wOBA | wRC+ | |||
| 2014 | Home | .193 | .353 | 60.7 | 23.3 | .397 | 123 | |
| Away | .106 | .272 | 23.8 | -8.5 | .273 | 71 |
A quick looks shows the Coors Field Factor is really obvious; when traveling strikeouts are up, walks and everything else down significantly.
Who Could The Braves Offer?
Probably no one the Rockies would want. The first pitcher available in the mind of many Braves fans is Mike Minor. Minor seems to have been in some sort of conflict with the Braves front office for a couple of years and his decision on Friday to go to an arbitration hearing over a small difference between offers seems like a way to tweak the nose of the front office.
The additions the Braves made to their pitching depth this off season make trading him and moving forward in this rebuilding (yes it is) year easy to justify. There are two problems with that scenario:
- Minor is worthy of a bigger return and
- Minor is a horrible fit in Denver.
Personalities aside, a healthy Minor is a near top of the rotation pitcher. From July 1, 2012, through the end of the 2013 season the only lefty starters with a better ERA than Minor’s 2.90 ERA in his 47 starts were Clayton Kershaw and Cliff Lee. No one is saying he’s in the same category as a pitcher as those two guys but he is a 3 WAR pitcher.
Even in his best season, Blackmon is a 2 WAR player. The Rockies would have to add a player or players to the package to even up the value. The Rockies are desperate for a major league quality starter and might well plus up the package if they really wanted Minor but I doubt they do. For reasons we once again we visit the Coors field factor.
Call to the Pen
At Coors the Rockies lineup had their way with Minor putting up a slash of .394/.468/.621/1.089 in his three starts. In those starts Minor lasted a total of 15 innings allowed 19 runs and posted an 11.40 ERA with a 2.333 WHIP. Fans know he’s a fly ball pitcher and last year his fly ball rate was 36% with a 13% HR/FB rate. In his career those numbers are 41% and 11%. Putting a fly ball pitcher in a ballpark like Coors ever fifth day is a recipe for disaster. I doubt the Rockies are that desperate.
The only starters the Braves would likely give up for him are David Hale or Cody Martin. The Rockies didn’t claim Martin when they could have had him for $50K during the rule 5 draft, there’s no reason to think they’d take him now. Hale doesn’t miss many bats but he does have a good ground ball rate (56%) and GB/FB rate of 2.20. That might entice the Rockies to make that trade and the Braves might make it hoping for Blackmon to be what his numbers appeared. Hale can be replaced with Martin or others (probably others since he’s no longer on the 40 man roster) and not impact this year significantly.
That’s A Wrap
Away from Coors field Blackmon looks less like a star and more like a fourth outfielder while Minor will certainly bring more at the deadline if he stays healthy and has a good first half. Maybe a Hale for Blackmon swap works but I don’t see the fit. Blackmon isn’t the platoon bat Hart said he wanted, his R/L split is virtually neutral though he has three times as many AB against RHP as LHP.
Hart has been notoriously vague about his intentions this year but this just doesn’t seem to be the type of trade he’d go for. That said they’ll probably make the trade an hour after this posts. It’s been that kind of day.