Evan Gattis Traded to Houston For Three Top Prospects

About 2:45 EST multiple reports emerged on Twitter that the Brave had traded Evan Gattis to Houston for a trio of Prospects Maybe . The trade is still not finalized according to Mark Bowman as the tweets below will show.

MLB Network reported that Gattis was in Houston for a physical so the deal was/is obviously close.

That would be Astros #3 prospect Mike Foltynewicz RHP, their #7 prospect Rio Ruiz 3B and their #17 prospect Andrew Thurman RHP.

Then Mark Bowman said hold your horses fellas (or something like that.)

Rosenthal however says the deal is done pending physical.

Bowman disagrees

Assuming everything goes as planned however this is what the Braves get.

Mike Foltynewicz

Foltynewicz was the Astros number one pick in the 2010 draft. Even though he was a high school senior at that time, Baseball America (subscription required) called him “far and away the best pitching prospect in the Upper Midwest.”  The young right moved up the Astros organization quickly. He was their #4 prospect entering 2011, slipped to #9 entering 2012, climbed back to #5 entering 2013 and entered last season as their #4 and ranked #59 in Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list. Following the 2013 season Baseball American gave this evaluation.

"He’s developed into one of the top power arms in the minors and reached Double-A Corpus Christi for the first time in his third full season. No minor league starter touched 100 mph more often in 2013 than Foltynewicz, and he hit 101 and 102 on occasion. He doesn’t locate his fastball with precision, so even when he’s sitting 96-98 mph, it flattens out, making it a hittable pitch. When he locates down in the zone, it’s a wipeout pitch with good sink. The Astros let him work on both his slider and curveball again after emphasizing the slider in 2012. While both breaking balls can be plus, he throws as many below-average offerings as above-average ones."

This season Foltynewicz started 18 games and appeared in relief 3 times for AAA Oklahoma City posting an ERA of 5.08 and a WHIP of 1.461 in 102 2/3 innings, averaging 8.9 K and 4.6 BB per nine. He got a cup of coffee with the Astros in August and September appearing out of the pen in 16 games (18 2/3 innings) and posting a 5.30 ERA (4.85 FIP, 4.88 xFIP)  and a 1.607 WHIP striking out 14 and walking 7.  Scout currently shows Foltynewicz as their #46 prospect

Foltynewicz once included a slider in his repertoire of pitches but stopped throwing it because of mid-season elbow soreness in 2013. Early last spring he put his two-seamer on the shelf as well. The pitch had good movement but according to Astros pitching coach Brent Strom.

"“The people who throw sinkers are people that can’t throw fastballs. Foltynewicz throws 98 mph. Now if that’s not the definition of a fastball, I don’t know what is.”"

Strom’s reasoning was that he saw Foltynewicz’s elbow drifting away when he threw the two-seamer.

"“A lot of the Tommy John (surgeries) that you’re reading about, and one of the things that we’re going to address with the minor league pitching coaches in Houston, is we have to keep our hand inside our elbow as we’re driving a ball in a straight line,” Strom said."

Hmm  . . .I know a few pitchers who might disagree with at least part of that and I applaud wanting to protect the young pitcher’s arm. At this point in his career a sinker might not be essential to his growth but Roger McDowell knows more about a sinker than most and should be able to correct any “drift” in his motion. I wouldn’t be surprised if that pitch reappeared at some point.  What we will see is more of the same knuckle curve that Alex Wood now features.

Like most young hard throwers the 23 year old 6’4, 220lb  righty has had trouble consistently putting the ball where he wants. While some see him as contending for the fifth starter role immediately, barring an eye popping spring training – which he is quite capable of providing given his high heat ration – I suspect he’ll start at Gwinnett so the Braves pitching development team can help him control that big arm. There’s absolutely no need to rush him to Atlanta as the lineup just dropped to a 70 win group

Rio Ruiz

Ruiz was the Astros fourth round pick in 2012,  entered this season at their eleventh ranked prospect and finished at #7.  His 2013 season with Greenville (rookie) then Quad Cities (low A) started slowly abut after correcting a problem in his mechanics he started to show some power. Baseball America (subscription required) gave this evaluation.

"“. . .Thanks to strong hands and wrists, he has above-average bat speed and should be at least an average hitter. Defensively, Ruiz has an average arm, but he had trouble fielding balls cleanly and was sometimes caught in-between hops on grounders. Scouts give him a chance to be average defensively, but he must clean up his footwork to get there. He impressed scouts with his aptitude and improvement as the season went along. Ruiz looks like a solid everyday third baseman if he can make mechanical adjustments on both sides of the ball. . .”"

Last September Fangraphs rated Ruiz in various areas. Hit tool at 20/55: They say that “. . .Ruiz possesses great feel for his swing, as he does a fine job of repeating it with minimal effort . . generates above-average bat speed from his quick, strong hands . . swing is leveled and he does a great job of keeping his weight back. . .” They were concerned about  his hand position at the end of his load making the swing a bit long. It hasn’t affected him so far because he’s a good athlete. As he moves up the  system however he face better pitching that could expose him.

Ruiz has shown just average power so far –  Fangraphs rating it Game Power: 20/50, Raw Power: 50/50 – and “. . .(he) displays just average raw power during batting, and it doesn’t project to get any better . . .Though he is only 20 years of age, Ruiz possesses a mature frame that he’s just about finished filling out.”  Ad to that a level, line drive profile swing  without loft or upper cut and he’s not going to be a 30 homer guy. In my opinion there’s nothing wrong with that,  20 homers and 55 doubles is a nice power output for a player who gets on base at a good clip as Ruiz does. They summarize him like this.

"“There’s reason to believe Ruiz can be a .270 hitter with home run production in the mid-teens. His patient, mature approach will allow him to get to the big leagues and to his ceiling of an average big league regular quicker than most. He should also help create additional value through walks. . .  he’s a below-average runner with just enough defense to stick at the hot corner. So, it’s all about the bat.”"

Last season at Lancaster (Hi A) the 6’2’, 215 lb LEH Ruiz seemed to have gained consistency at the plate. He displayed a good idea of the strike zone striking out just 91 times and walking 82 in 602 PA He also put up his best numbers yet with a slash of .275/.387/.439/.823 with 11 homers, 37 doubles 2 triples and 77 RBI. Ruiz is still a work in progress in the field which may mean he starts in A ball again before moving up to Pearl.

Andrew Thurman

The Astros selected the 6’3” 225 Thurman in the second round of the 2013 draft.  Earlier in his high school career the fastball had less zip so he learned to pound the throw strikes instead of over powering hitters. However at UC Irvine he featured a 90-93 mph fastball that touched 95 on occasion backed up by a 77-80 mph well developed change and 73-77 mph hook that was a work in progress.  Scouts wanted to see him pitch down in the zone more and add a power breaking ball and while pitching in the Cape Cod League he did  try a slider but it was nothing to write home about.

Last year at Quad Cities Thurman started 20 games posting a 5.38 ERA. and a 1.405 WHIP with 107 strikeouts and 40 walks in 115 1/3 innings. That equates to a rate of 8.3 K and 3.1 BB per nine.Thurman just turned 23 and will likely start in Hi A.

Thurman looks like a #4-type starter who could sneak up on folks and go higher. He’s always pounded the zone, got his share of strikeouts and like Kris Medlen is a quiet hard working guy who knows what he can do and tries to do it the best he can.

Q&A

Someone just just tweeted Gattis shouldn’t have been traded since we have to have someone to protect Freddie Freeman. The answer to that is simple; why? The team as it sits is a 74 or so win team with or without Gattis. Arms with top of the rotation like Foltynewicz that are near major league ready today are hard to come by. Giving up a one dimensional player like Gattis to get that kind of arm and getting a guy who could sit nicely in the middle of the rotation in a couple of years and a solid third baseman we might see in 2017 and it looks like a nice package.

Another tweet asked why BJ Upton or Chris Johnson wasn’t included. The answer I’m afraid is, no one wants either of them at their current price and making the price palatable by adding $25M in a BJ package or $12M in a CJ package isn’t something the Braves have shown willing to do.

I actually think CJ will rebound to his pre-2013 numbers this season. If he does that he’s worth his contract and more easily movable. BJ is another story, I have no idea what to expect from him.

What are Hart and company doing?  The word – even if it is forbidden in the Braves front office – is rebuilding. If it’s not done now the Braves will continue to stumble and fail. Understand that this has to happen the question is when. The roster and the system was decimated during the Wren years. That can’t be fixed overnight. Start now and in 2017 we challenge

Is that all we get? Folks this is three top 20 Astros prospects who will likely slot in to our top 20 as well. I know everyone loves Gattis, I do too. However, the value is certainly fair.

 That’s A Wrap

Taken on it’s own this is a good deal for the Braves. They return two healthy pitching prospects – on eat or near major league ready now – and two hard working blue collar prospects that help fill out our system. As I read about Ruiz I kept seeing Martin Prado. Everything points to a strong compact player with a nice line drive swing that walks about as many times as he strikes out. He doesn’t have Prado’s versatility but if he continues in this vein, he’s the kind of steady player teams need to solidify their lineup.

Thurman is a strike thrower who relies on a low 90s fastball, a change and a hook with a strong work ethic and positive attitude. If that sounds familiar it should, Thurman is a Medlen kind of guy. He has a couple of advantages Medlen didn’t have – well one really he’s 6’3” and gets a downward plane a lot easier than Meds. I hope he too continues developing that way as he moves up the system.

The crown jewel in the trade is for a change not an arm trying top come back for TJ surgery or a repeatedly injured former starter turned reliever. Foltynewicz is atop of the rotation pitcher with a BIG arm and a winning attitude. He sits mid 90s and touches a ton now and then, if he can rein in that power he’ll be special.   I like the young man’s mind set. He told Evan Drellich last spring that he’s a starter.

"“A lot of people have their opinions on what they should have you do. But in my mind, I know that I’m a starter, I prepared to be a starter. I’ve been one my whole life, and I know I can be a pretty good one if I get the chance to.”"

The Braves are going to give him that chance. Mixing that arm in with Teheran, Minor, Miller and Wood makes the rotation look pretty good. He is young and he won’t get 200 innings this year and maybe not next but by 2017 he should be a force to be reckoned with.

This is the kind of deal Hart should have made for Upton. Okay maybe one less player because Upton only gave them one year but certainly better than a broken pitcher – yes I know TJ surgery always works. . .except when it doesn’t – and certainly the Padres had it to give. For my money Hart folded and went home early on that deal. That’s in the past however and the future is a struggling offense for a year and maybe two as the team rebuilds.

As I write this Gattis is the only name in the package headed to Houston. I’d be surprised if its stays that way. It would seem like there has to be at least one more name dropped eventually.

UPDATE: 6:55EST  The deal isn’t complete yet accodring to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle

Drellich says that if the trade goes through all names the names aren’t known but confirms the BJ i snot one of them. Apparently the Astros are concerned about Gattis knee and back “and the concern is fairly significant.”  I’m a little surprised at that as those issues are widely known.

If Gattis is traded he’ll play some left, first and catch.  If the Astros don’t complete the trade the Rangers wait in the wings.

UPDATE: 10:18 EST Mark Bowman reports that the Braves will send James Hoyt along with Gattis to Houston to complete the trade.  The Braves signed Hoyt out of independent ball in 2013. He worked in relief for Mississippi throwing 31 innings at Pearl with a 1.14 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP. That earned him a promotion to Gwinnett where he didn’t fair as well posting 5.46 ERA , 1.857 WHIP in 28 innings.