Okay, it’s not quite as bad as the Washington Nationals opera night at the ballpark pictured, but the Braves’ signing of Dian Toscano to a major league deal made official today has led to a very crowded outfield. Let’s take a look:
On the way out?
Justin Upton was arguably the Braves’ MVP in 2014, specifically at the plate. He’s been a great source of right handed power for the Braves in his time with the Braves, but his defense has received negative reviews after moving from right field previously to left field after he joined the Braves organization. He’s been a heavily-rumored trade target this offseason, and he will be a free agent after 2015. Reportedly, one of the major draws to Atlanta for Justin was playing with his brother BJ for the Braves, but if he’s not going to work out an extension this offseason, the Braves would be wise to shop Upton as the market for right handed power is quite a seller’s market currently.
B.J. Upton was signed as a free agent before the 2013 season, and to say his Braves tenure has been a disaster is being very unfair to disasters. He hasn’t hit well, he’s been noted for issues with his work ethic in his past, and his defense hasn’t been up to par in center field for the Braves. The Braves were rumored to have been shopping him to anyone that would listen at the trade deadline this year in order to get rid of his large contract going forward. A “bad contract swap” may still be the best way to move BJ, but he won’t be easy to move even then. He did have a very good meeting with acting GM John Hart this offseason, so perhaps he’ll return to the Braves renewed and deliver on some of that promise he showed before signing his deal with the Braves.
Evan Gattis did not play an inning in the outfield in 2014, so he may be an odd name to show up here, but since the trade of Jason Heyward and the emergence of stalwart defensive catching prospect Christian Bethancourt, Gattis has been deemed by many fans and media as destined for outfield play, at least at a part-time level. It would be tremendous to get Evan’s power bat into the lineup. While some expressed disappointment in a seeming sideways step for Gattis in 2014 due to hitting nearly the same amount of home runs, missing time with injury, and increasing his strikeout rate while decreasing his walk rate, Gattis actually improved at the plate in 2014, as evidenced by his 16-point increase in OPS+ in 2014 over 2013. Gattis will never be able to achieve his 30-homer power behind the plate as he’s likely to remain around 100 games played and 400 plate appearances in that role, but a move out to the outfield could allow Evan to be a huge power bat. Gattis’ last appearances in the outfield in 2013 were quite poor, but he had all of 52 chances in the outfield in his professional career before those appearances, and an offseason of work in the outfield could lead to a much more defensively-adept Oso Blanco, as shown by the drastic improvement of his catching defense from year one to year two in the majors.
The newcomers
The Braves signed three outfielders to major league contracts this offseason, and while the first two are known, the signing announced today of Toscano brings in a player with very, very little scouting about him available to the common fan. There are no wonderful YouTube videos including him roasting a pig or jumping over cars for fans to review and dream on. Toscano’s profile rather fits that lack of drama and show. He’s the prototypical 4th outfielder who could play all three outfield positions defensively, has a good eye and bat control, and doesn’t flash “starter-worthy” power or speed (and in Toscano’s case especially not power!). These type of players can turn out to be very solid for a time in the outfield, as he fits a guy like Denard Span offensively and someone like Jacoby Ellsbury defensively from the few scouting reports that are out there about him. Whether he can achieve those levels is another thing, but he will be on the Braves roster in 2015, and he could be a surprising answer to a horrific bench that the Braves had in 2014.
Nick Markakis is well known, so not a lot of explaining needs to go into who he is, but the negative attitudes toward his signing are honestly very surprising to this writer. Markakis brings a low-strikeout, high-contact approach to a team desperate for someone who can get on base and keep rallies going. He’s an acceptable defender, and he’s only 31. No, I don’t foresee him hitting 30 home runs in Atlanta, but he’s the type of guy who could end the season with 30-40 doubles, 10-15 home runs, and a .340+ OBP, which has a ton of value in the Braves lineup as currently constructed. As free agency unfolds, I think the sticker shock at what other players around the league are getting will likely calm some nerves about Markakis’ contract.
Zoilo Almonte is the third major league signing this offseason, and he’s possibly the most curious. While Toscano brings an aspect of contact off the bench and the ability to fill in across the outfield, Almonte’s a corner outfielder (he’s played 40 games the last three years in CF in the minors, but he’s really not got the range for the position) with four 100+ strikeout seasons in the minor leagues and a strikeout rate of 20%+ over his minor league career. Almonte does have some power, but we’re not talking Gattis power, more like 20ish home runs over a full season sort of power. He is a switch hitter, and there’s something to be said about not being able to be pitched around as a pinch-hitter, but Almonte as a major league sign was an odd one for me, and we’ll see why as we continue on.
Outside looking in?
The signings of Toscano and Almonte seems to point toward them being the outfield bench bats in 2015. That actually sets up badly for three outfielders still on the 40-man, who are now likely not going to be part of the Braves’ plans. Jose Constanza is the one that many fans would be happy to have off the roster as it seems whenever he’s there, Fredi Gonzalez has an affinity for using him, and he’s just, frankly, not very good. He’s 31 and OPS’d .668 at AAA last season, so there’s just not much there. Constanza would likely not bring anything in trade, so it’s odd that the team hasn’t simply cut him at this point.
Todd Cunningham is a personal favorite, and he’s the one of the three 40-man guys who was affected least by the signings of Almonte and Toscano. He’s a center fielder with solid range. He’s nothing spectacular defensively, but solid all around. His 2014 defensively was actually graded quite highly, but he hadn’t shown that level of defense before, so it could be a scoring thing, but he may also have added another dimension to his defense. Cunningham doesn’t have a lot of bang to his bat, but he offers tremendously more to the team than Constanza as a center fielder off the bench with some actual over-the-fence power. Cunningham is 26 next year, so he’s also 5 years younger than Constanza. Cunningham’s calling cards offensively are very similar to Toscano’s with good strike zone recognition and bat-to-ball ability. He certainly should have a shot in 2015 with the Braves, and if he was allowed to walk away, he’d be gobbled up quite quickly.
Joey Terdoslavich is probably the most well-known of the three outfielders who might have been pushed back to AAA by the Almonte and Toscano signings. Terdoslavich burst onto the scene with a tremendous season at high-A Lynchburg when he smacked 52 doubles and 20 home runs before having a very good showing in the Arizona Fall League that year. The Braves jumped him to AAA and moved him to 3B from 1B in 2012, and he struggled tremendously. When he moved to AA and 1B, he recovered to finish well with Mississippi in 2012. 2013 had Terdoslavich moving to the outfield for Gwinnett, and he hit very well with a .926 OPS before being promoted July 4th to Atlanta for the rest of the season. He performed poorly, to say the least, in 2013 in Atlanta in a small 92 plate appearance sample size, posting a .581 OPS for Atlanta. 2014 had Joey returning to AAA, where he performed significantly worse, posting only a .722 OPS, down over 200 points from his previous year on the same squad. Then in very limited action in Atlanta, he hit quite well, though it was only 11 plate appearances. So what is to be expected in 2015? Honestly, who knows?! Terdoslavich is a corner outfielder and first basemen only, so his ability to do much for the team defensively is limited. He does offer a switch-hitting bat, but with him being 26 this year, he may be beyond expecting further growth as a player at this point. Terdoslavich’s name has been brought up often as a trade chip. His defensive liabilities makes him much more attractive to American League teams, and the Braves may use him to sweeten a deal for a better return this winter, but of those guys on the 40-man, Terdoslavich was the one hurt most in his 2015 chances by the signings of Toscano and Almonte.
What happens now?
The trade rumors are still swirling heavily, and the Braves are likely not done moving outfielders, but it would also not surprise me to see the Braves not only move one or both of Justin Upton and Gattis, but also move BJ Upton and even Joey Terdoslavich. Five outfielders moved in one offseason might be a record that most teams would avoid, but with the ability to possibly remake the roster in a contact and defense focus, that might be best for the team. Losing both Gattis and Justin from the middle of the lineup would be a tremendous amount to lose, unless there was another power bat coming back to put around Freddie Freeman. Once again, as I’ve said many times over this offseason, it will be anything but boring!!