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Justin Upton: Who’s In? What Do They Have?

By Alan Carpenter|

I thought you might be tiring of pictures of Justin Upton for these trade rumor posts – so here’s a Justin with an Upton instead.  Can we trade for this pair maybe?

_______

At this point it’s official:  Justin Upton is the MLB’s Official Human Trade Rumor as the Winter Swap Meet gets underway today.  Just about all of the better reporters think so:

No hurry – but then again, it’s also clear that other things will be on hold until the Johns (Hart and Coppollela) know exactly what they’re going to be getting back in return, for that will help identify the direction that they will go for other possible deals.

So Who’s Involved?

As of right now… and this is definitely a fluid situation… as many as seven teams are said to be in the mix for Justin’s services:

On Sunday, he also listed the Mariners and Giants having expressed interest, plus the Royals and Tigers among other teams “that may fit.”

So there’s seven different teams with some level of interest or another.  Heck, I’m listening to the MLB Network Channel right now and they’re talking about a desire to wiretap John Hart‘s suite in the hotel.  Yes:  there is a ton of chatter.

But what you really want to know is this:  what can we get for him?

Let’s go through the list… and I’m listing them in the order of best-to-worst chances of landing Upton… at least in my own thinking.  But the list has more problems than solutions.

The Possibilities – and the “Why”

  • MARINERS – They want Upton.  They don’t want to give up Taijuan Walker.  They want Matt Kemp.  Still don’t want to give up Walker.  Now they’re after Melky Cabrera.  He declined a Qualifying Offer to become a free agent, so he wants a lot of money.
  • RANGERS – Have you seen their lineup lately?  And how well they (don’t) hit?
  • TIGERS – They lost Austin Jackson to Seattle via trade.  They lost Torii Hunter to free agency. Right now their CF is Anthony Gose and their RF is Rajai Davis.  The Tigers make bold moves.
  • ORIOLES – Biggest obvious need, since they lost both Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis.  Big news Sunday about Dan Duquette and his level of interest in the Blue Jays’ President position.  That will be a distraction that could get in the way.  After all, as an owner, do you want your GM making moves for you when he wants to run another team … in your own division?
  • PADRES – They are trying intently to build something… and have also been pursuing Matt Kemp.  It’s still a big park they play in – they want somebody who actually hits it out.
  • GIANTS – Lost Michael Morse; still have Gregor Blanco and Angel Pagan… the latter of which they’d love to dump.
  • ROYALS – Check out their official depth chart.  Apparently Lorenzo Cain is playing both CF and RF simultaneously.  They lost Nori Aoki.  Losing Billy Butler means they can afford Justin Upton.  That single move could get them back to the playoffs.

The Possibilities – and What They Could Offer

Sep 19, 2014; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher

Taijuan Walker

(32). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

MARINERS – It’s either Taijuan Walker or no deal.  So far Jack Z isn’t that desperate. I suppose if a miracle occurs and Jon Lester picks Atlanta, then we have a whole different conversation with Seattle.

  • RANGERS – I keep hearing a lot of rumblings about Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor, and Michael Choice.  Profar:  I know he’s still just 21.  But he isn’t hitting.  And we’re actually trading away second basemen.  Odor, who also plays second base, looks good, but… can he play third?  Michael Choice.  Strikeouts are too high, production too low.  We already have one of those players.
  • Other Texas options:  Joey Gallo.  Stunning power, but also stunning K-rate (over 30%).  Still just 20 years old.  I might take a flyer on him, but not as the main attraction.  Nomar Mazara – break-out year in the minors (AA), but still very young (19).  Detroit sent two of their best pitching prospects to Texas for Joakim Soria.  Maybe we could get them.  Overall: Hart would need to get three of these guys… which Texas wouldn’t do.
  • TIGERS – 1st name:  Rick Porcello.  Second name:  David Price.  Big problem:  neither are controllable beyond 2015, so of course those are names they want to push.  A year ago, I would have said Nick Castellanos.  Nothing excites me from their farm system.
  • ORIOLES – Either pitching or a slighty-used General Manager.  Here’s the problem:  Their best pitching prospect are all “iffy” right now:  Kevin Gausman (7K per 9 innings; 3.3 walks/9 ip).  Dylan Bundy:  velocity down and walk are up since tommy john surgery.  Hunter Harvey:  too far away and… a sore elbow in July.  So the prospects list is not a good one, and I doubt they’d sell any from the major league roster.  Maybe Alejandro de Aza.
  • PADRES – We’d probably ask for Tyson Ross.  We’d probably get Ian Kennedy.  Most of their rotation could be available, though, and it isn’t horrible – and we just hired one of the Padres’ key evaluators, so this is my dark horse team since he knows all the good guys to ask for.
  • GIANTS – LF Gregor Blanco, CF Angel Pagan, pitchers Main Cain, Tim Lincecum, or prospects Kyle Crick (RHP, AA – w/poor control), Andrew Susac (C).  Their farm is meh, but they’d like to move salary – and so would Atlanta in one case.  Overall, I’d doubt this will happen.
  • ROYALS – Getting Justin Upton really makes good sense for them.  But virtually all of their minor league prospects had a bad year – or it turned bad after a promotion.  I don’t want any of them.  So despite this making great sense for KC, they aren’t giving up Yordano Ventura, so there is no deal to be had here.

    • My Wild Guess

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    • Short of a crazy idea I had involving a three-way between the Braves, the Astros, and the Rockies in which

    Troy Tulowitzki

    ended up playing third base for Atlanta with

    George Springer

    in RF and

    Dexter Fowler

    in center (

    I told you it was crazy

    ), this is the best idea I see right now that’s still marginally realistic:

    RANGERS:  get Justin Upton

    BRAVES: get Jake Thompson (RHP-AA), Joey Gallo (3B-AA), and either Alex Gonzalez (RHP-AA) or Nick Williams (OF/High-A).  Are all three players too much to give up for Justin?  Yeah, probably.  But I do think somebody is going to overpay to get him.  Texas is a good candidate for that… and I say that despite this report from this morning:

    "…the Rangers will focus on adding a controllable starting pitcher via trade and Texan-born, TCU-educated Andrew Cashner of San Diego remains the top target. Cashner has two years remaining before free agency and is likely to earn between $3-4 million in 2015, which would still give the Rangers financial flexibility to take on a bigger salary in a trade during the spring or at the trading deadline.andThe Rangers won’t get a verdict on [some players returning from injury – such as Profar] until sometime during spring training at the earliest, which is why Daniels said of making a determination on a “big” piece: “It might be this winter; it might not.”"

    One thing for sure:  don’t trust anything stated publicly just before the Winter Meetings start.  All of the GMs use this time to mark their territory.  Things change quickly.

    I’m still hoping for the Mystery Team to show up.

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