Atlanta Braves Justin Upton Trade Rumors: Go Big or Go HOME!

The latest Atlanta Braves trade rumor involving Justin Upton comes from Jon Morosi of Fox Sports:

"Orioles, Rangers, and Padres among the teams still involved in the trade market for Braves outfielder Justin Upton."

Make no mistake, the services for Justin Upton are in high demand, and the price  will be super steep. Let’s review some information tidbits thus far:

1. Price for Justin Upton is high, higher than Jason Heyward’s- Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported this 2 weeks ago and it’s likely only went up since.  Just a reminder, Heyward and Jordan Walden brought back a starting pitcher under control for 4 years and a top-pitching prospect whose ceiling is being measured as a #2 type starter.  It’s hard to differentiate between what Heyward commanded and what Walden commanded, but for the sake of this exercise, let’s say the Braves asked for the 2 pitchers in trade straight up and Walden was the sweetener that made the Cardinals say yes.

2. Keith Law, a respected baseball analyst for ESPN and a Minor League fanatic, was on chat yesterday and talked Justin Upton quite a bit.  Here’s the most telling comment:

"In regards to JUpton’s trade value: I don’t think they get much more for Upton than they got for Heyward, maybe even a tick less."

3.  The teams lining up don’t stop with just the 3 listed above, according to Jayson Stark:

So, using the price tag set by the Heyward trade, and giving it a slight nudge upward due to the high demand, let’s put together a package for each of the 3 teams listed above:

1. San Diego Padres-  Long has their struggles to find offense been well-documented with that cavernous ballpark they call home.  Justin’s bat would do just fine there due to the moonshots and no-doubters that frequently come from his massive swings. And while the rumors will likely vanish should the Padres find success in their pursuit of Matt Kemp, what else are we going to do until the Braves trade Justin Upton? Sit and not speculate? Oh, I think not.

The Trade:  Atlanta Braves send Justin Upton, David Hale, and Joey Terdoslavich to the Padres in exchange for Tyson Ross and Carlos Quentin.

Analysis: In my opinion, the weakest return the Braves would likely get for Justin, but likely a realistic package that the Padres would offer.  Ross was much better than Shelby Miller last year, but comes with 1 year less control.  Quentin is inserted into LF in hopes that he can stay healthy and that the Braves will have a cheap option there for 2 years (fat chance). David Hale inserts in as their swingman/#5 starter, and Terdoslavich competes for a utility spot.

2.  Texas Rangers- Can someone say, Holy middle-infield logjam, Batman?  The Rangers can, and the Braves can help them in their efforts to disembowel said logjam.  With Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar, and defensive wiz Luis Sardinas all fighting for time at 2nd or SS, it only seems fair for the Braves to scoop up one of the logs.

The Trade: Atlanta Braves send Justin Upton and Shae Simmons to the Rangers in exchange for Jurickson Profar and Michael Choice.

I’ve discussed this trade before and how risky it would be from the Braves perspective, but oh how rewarding it could also become.  Profar is coming back from major injury.  Prior to 2013’s season, Profar was ranked the #1 prospect in the Minors. His profile would be exactly what the Braves would be looking for in the “New Braves”approach: puts up great ABs, walks a lot, strikes out very little, good power, above average defense.  Michael Choice could very well be a Major League bust or could become a very valuable OF in time. He can play all outfield positions, the corners above average and CF slightly below average.  His Minor League track record is there with a good balance of OBP and power.  He has a tendency to strike out quite a bit, but even that has improved each step up the ladder.  Choice could start out as a platoon OF with recently signed Almonte in LF should the Braves not acquire anyone else and that would be a good measurement as to what the Braves have in both players.  If B.J. continues to do what he has the past 2 years and Choice finds success, he could be the CF replacement we’ve all been dreaming of…

3. Baltimore Orioles-With the recent departure of Nick Markakis to the Braves, the Orioles think it only fair to take one of our outfielders, and are said to be in pursuit of Justin Upton.  In my opinion, this trade is least likely to happen of the 3 as the asking price will be high.

The Trade: Atlanta Braves send Justin Upton to the Orioles in exchange for Dylan Bundy.  

Notice the trend in the trades mentioned in regards to returns for Justin Upton? Taijuan Walker, Jurickson Profar, Dylan Bundy?  What do all these guys have in common? They were once the best prospect, or very close to it, in the entire Minor Leagues, but have fallen from grace a bit due to injury.  Bundy’s 2014 was mostly a wash as he was rehabbing from Tommy John, but his potential is still there. The Orioles got good production from their starting pitching last year and could potentially sell off Bundy due to that surplus.  Here’s a piece from SBNation’s “Stacey” on Bundy’s fall from grace:

"Thanks to his injury, a bit of shine has come off of Bundy as a prospect. Ranked by most reputable sources in the top five of prospects in all of baseball before the 2013 season, he dropped to 15-30 prior to 2014. ESPN analyst Keith Law ranked Bundy at #31 prior to the start of the 2014 season, but in his mid-season review bumped him all the way up to #12 based on his observation that he is most of the way back from TJ surgery. Tucker Blair of Baseball Prospectus and Orioles Nation saw Bundy pitch in July and gave a rave review, saying that Bundy is one of the most polished pitchers in the minors and that all of his pitches grade as plus or potentially plus."

That’s a wrap!  What package would you prefer? Or would you alter one of the packages?  Let’s hear it!