Why is Justin Upton Worth So Much?
Even the title above requires a caveat: Justin Upton is truly only worth whatever hypothetical trade ends up happening, but for the moment, John Hart thinks he’s worth at least as much as the Braves received from the Cardinals for Jason Heyward.
Since Jordan Walden was also involved in that deal, you’d have to guess a bit, but if you think “Jason Heyward ~= Shelby Miller“, then that’s probably a good enough comparison to set the trade bar.
But what I’m interested in today is this question: Why? Why is Justin Upton worth that much?
He’s Got The Powah
There are lots of home run hitters out there. But not all home run hitters are created equal. There are those who hit wall-scrapers, those who scream liners around the foul poles, and then there are the “no doubters”. It is those hitters that are in demand right now.
Such is the case with Justin Upton. He hits “no doubters”. Doesn’t matter what stadium you put him into, once he connects – it’s usually gone.
I snagged a chart of 2014 hitters from fangraphs.com. First, an explanation: ISO and Slugging numbers are calculated in different ways, but they both measure a hitter’s power:
- Slugging percentage: Total Bases / At-Bats
- ISO (Isolated Power): [ # of doubles + # of triples (X2) + # of homers (X3) ] / At-Bats
If you hit nothing but singles, your ISO will be .000, as you produced no extra bases. With Slugging, two doubles are worth the same as each homer (4 total bases are involved). In the ISO world, homers are 3X the value of a double. Triples are often a different animal all together, but fortunately for this exercise, there’s really few power hitters that thrive on triples.
I split the differences by adding ISO and SLG, then sorted the table on the sum. Here’s the list of the top 100 mashers with a minimum of 400 plate appearances in 2014 (Gattis had 401):
Who is Available?
As of this morning’s announcement of the Nelson Cruz (10th) signing,
the top-ranked “available” players are:
Evan Gattis (18) and Justin Upton (20).
If you think Matt Kemp is available, you might wanna keep checking… he’s still owed about $107 million over the next 5 years, and the Dodgers claimed that they are still in “win now” mode and looking to add players more than subtract (that comment was about Zack Greinke, but Kemp had a solid 2014 and they would probably like to keep him).
The next-most-available hitter is Michael Morse (28th). But he’s been available as a free agent, and is a defensive liability.
The Blue Jays just traded a lot (4 players) to acquire Josh Donaldson (38th). Adam LaRoche (40) has signed with the White Sox for $10m+ per year. The Indians have expressed interest in Brandon Moss (42) of the A’s.
Look at all the money just spent on Kyle Seager (44), Hanley Ramirez (62), Russell Martin (88), Pablo Sandoval (97). Never mind the biggest contract of this off-season: Giancarlo Stanton’s (4). Heck, Torii Hunter (67) got over $10 million from Minnesota at age 39.
Want to see something nutty? Billy Butler got $30 million from the A’s to be a DH/1B… and he ranks 151st on this list!
It is Crystal Clear
Power is scarce in the marketplace, so teams are willing to spend to get it. That is why hitters like Upton (and Gattis) are worth so much.
So yes: whoever John Hart wants to end up trading… he will get a decent return. In Upton’s case, definitely more than the compensation round draft pick for keeping him through 2015.
Let’s hope Hart can find some future power to bring back home.