Lester, Tomas: Not Time to Hold Your Breath… Yet

Sorting Fact from Fiction

Rumors are swirling faster than a springtime Texas dust devil.   Separating fact from fiction is getting to be nigh impossible.  Frankly, we’re victims of that here ourselves.

Allow me to present Defense Exhibit A:

…and Defense Exhibit B (from yesterday):

"They’re [the Red Sox are] trying to bring back Jon Lester, and while on Sunday, two National League general managers said they heard it was close to happening, Lester’s agents still has not heard from the Yankees."

That quote comes buried in the middle of a blog post – also authored by Peter Gammons. When you have a respected source – and Hall of Famer – providing information that’s unmistakably clear in its language, you re-tweet it, you write about it, you spread that word around.  You do so because you know that it’s not simple heresay:  it’s sourced, and usually doubly-sourced.

Unfortunately, in this case, both of those pieces of information were  also wrong:

…and as of today, we know nothing is close on Lester going to Boston.

What Do We Know, Then?

(all information below sourced from twitter and source material derived from MLBTR.com)

YASMANY TOMAS.

• Yes, the Braves are interested.  Our scouts saw him over this past weekend.  This is no credible report that an offer has been extended.
• The Padres are interested in him.  A beat writer for that team reminds us that they have signed no significant free agent since 1983 (Goose Gossage)… and thus he doubts that they will push the envelope for Tomas once push comes to shove.  That said, they were in the immediate neighborhood in bidding for the Kung Fu Panda.
• The Phillies had some interest, though are backing down due to defensive concerns.
• Though Gammons claimed offers for Tomas had poured in from the Giants, Braves, and Padres; it is at least safe to assume that these teams (plus the Mariners and Diamondbacks) are at least “interested”.  The Giants have reportedly seen Tomas four times.
• The Royals had some interest, at one time ranking among the most interested.

So that’s six teams with some levels of interest in Tomas.  Based on the material I’m seeing, here is my ranking of each one:  Giants.  Braves.  Padres.  Phillies.  DBacks/Royals.

Having lost Sandoval (and his bat), the Giants are likely to ramp up their interest.  They may also be pursuing other free agents, so it’s hard to figure how far they will go.  With the energy indicated by the top 2-3 teams, I do not expect any of the other squads to be serious suitors.  The Padres are a bit of a wild card, but with money being equal, I can’t see Tomas selecting them over either the Braves or Giants, given that they would have virtually no other support around him.  Note that they offered the Panda $100m+ for “more than 5 years” – and were rejected.

My call: as of today’s information – it comes down to Atlanta and San Francisco, and ultimately how bad each one wants a possibly-power-hitting left fielder.  

Reviewing the Brew

JON LESTER.

• The Giants again.  Once again, having lost out on Sandoval, the word is that interest in Lester may increase.
• Lester and the Red Sox are “very much engaged.”  Lester will remember that his offer from them during the past season was a ‘lowball’; that might be a factor if the decision ends up being close.
• The Cubs are interested and have met with Lester.
• The Braves have met with Lester.  No offer was exchanged and John Hart told Jayson Stark that getting him would be a “long shot”.
• The Dodgers are in on Cole Hamels, which would impact the market for Lester.
• The Red Sox think the Yankees might steal Lester from them.
• The Cardinals will see Lester next week.
• The Blue Jays is also in the mix

Wild Card information about Lester (from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe), coming in two parts:

"David Ross, C, free agent — Ross wonders whether his status with the Red Sox depends on whether they sign Jon Lester. Lester and Ross are connected after their successful run in 2013. Ross said he’s begun to field interest from other teams. He also said he plans to get together with Lester after Thanksgiving."

Here’s part 2, from Dave O’Brien:  

Well, if the Braves are actually serious about making a run at Jon Lester, a package deal for his personal catcher would not only make sense, it could help sway the decision.  But that’s the best I’ve got on the Lester-to-Atlanta front today.

But again:  that’s six teams with interest… and in this case, it’s stronger interest than what we’re seeing for Tomas.  The Braves are merely one in the crowd shopping for this not-Black-Friday deal… which is guaranteed to sell out quickly once the doors open.

My call:  same as it has been.  I do think that Atlanta will ultimately make some sort of offer, but it might be premised on Lester himself coming to Jon Hart and expressing a specific interest to play near his home.  If that happens, then he’s a Brave.  If not, then it will be another club signing him, for there are too many players and too many dollars being floated in his direction.

Hurry Up and Wait

It would be great to have inside knowledge – to be able to discern fact from fiction.  Aside from that, the best we can do is assemble all of the data we have and take a dispassionate look in our attempt to figure out what it all means.

In this case, I would have to say that the Braves will pursue each of these players to a point, but I certainly would not be holding my breath expecting a signature.

Expectation:  Atlanta gets neither one.  And that’s okay, too.