Ryan started us off with his proposals for off season moves last week. Today it’s my turn to daydream out loud about what might happen this off season. We’re always more likely to be 180 off target than dead on but it’s hot stove season for us so lets get into.
Braves GM Philosophy
Interim Braves GM John Hart and President of Baseball Operations John Schuerholz have said that their priority is to return to the Braves way. Leaving aside the nebulous nature of that goal and referring to specifics that they mentioned or were alluded to as missing from the roster what they are looking to do is to add:
- Good players with a reputation of
- being hard working,
- having a spotless reputation (that’s relative I know) and
- being leaders/ mentors
- Add speed to the lineup
- Balance the lineup by adding contact and presumably OBP guys to the sluggers
- 2015 – $96.2M
- 2016 -$27.6M
- 2017 – $22M
- 2018 forward – nothing
- Braves take Buehrle’s Salary – Jay’s payroll drops to $74.2M
- Jays take BJ’s salary – $15.05m- and receive $16.5M – Jays’ payroll drops to $74.75M
- Jay’s now have $21.45M to pick up Adam Lind’s option ($7.5M) and $13.95M left to spend
- Jay’s have a CF to replace Colby Rasmus for nothing
- Add Buehrle’s salary $20M
- Add $16.5M paid to the Jays
- Deduct BJ’s 15.05M
- Net change in 2105 +$21.45M
- Savings over paying the remainder of BJ’s contract if he’s DFA – $26.75M (48.15-21.45)
- Has Braves window to extend Max Fried already passed them by?FanSided
- A Braves trade for dark horse Dansby Swanson replacementFanSided
- Braves rumors: A Dansby Swanson replacement no one has thought of yetFanSided
- 3 Braves players who must outperform 2022 to get back to World SeriesFanSided
- Braves fans will love everything Sean Murphy said about signing extensionFanSided
Or at least that’s the way I interpret it. Piece of cake right?
On the subject of trades in general. . .
Trades are a moving target. A decision by a team in another league may change the dynamic of the trade market just as a team’s willingness to over pay for mediocrity (cough BJ cough cough) changes the pay expectations of other free agents.
Trade values are very subjective and trades must benefit both teams. A player is worth what the other team is willing to give up in terms of money and/or players based on their perception of his value to their plans at that time. Without being statistically dogmatic, a team like the Royals isn’t going to give up a 150+ game starting CF with speed, occasional power and gold glove defense like Lorenzo Cain for your 120 game average defense 25 home run catcher. There is no value equivalent there.
A trade (or for that matter a signing) is a success if it brings the advertised result. The James Shields / Wil Myers trade was widely panned when made but the Royals are in the post season and that was their goal making that trade a success. I’ll try to explain how the trade values I offer match what I perceive as team needs and goals. I’m sure many will disagree but please be polite in doing so,
The B.J. Upton solution
B.J. Upton has to go. He’s a sunken cost and lost cause in Atlanta and other teams know it. There are two ways he can leave; trade or DFA release. Getting anything for him is a bonus. so how do we do that?
I’ve been watching, reading and listening to the reports about the failed bad contract swap of BJ for Edwin Jackson last trade deadline. The reason for it not happening was the Cubs insistence on more money or players than the Braves were willing to part with. IO don’t believe that’s changed. In fact I can’t see anyway that benefits the Cubs at this point. They have a strong group of young everyday players and no need for an unhappy, failing , big name player in the midst of all that young talent. It may happen but I doubt it. So what do we do?
The Trade: BJ plus $16.5M payable this season along with Tyler Pastornicky to Toronto for Mark Buehrle and John Mayberry Jr. The first part of this is easy to explain, the Jays are looking for infield depth and Rev can backup second, third and short for them as they seem to have trouble keeping those positions healthy. Mayberry provides us with a fifth outfielder(stay tuned) and more importantly a consistently good RH pinch hitter. In his career Mayberry slashes .304/.355/.545/.900 in 121 PA with seven homers, six doubles and 21 RBI. The second part takes some explaining so stay with me.
It’s all about the money honey
I acknowledge that this isn’t my idea, Ben Chase put it forward and I credit him for helping me see how it would work. At first glance this makes no sense for Toronto but looking at their needs and out year payroll it soon seems extremely practical. Here’s what you need to know about Toronto’s payroll, they are desperate to clear salary for the 2015 season. Here’s the Jay’s projected payroll commitments courtesy COTS.
The huge payroll commitment created from trades with the Marlins and Mets ties the Jays’ hands in the free agent market for 2015. Buehrle makes $20M (19+1M in incentives) of the 96.2M next year.Here’s what the trades does:
They can then make a multi-year offer to Melky Cabrera that he’s likely to accept and have money to add an arm if needed. They have so little money committed to 2016 and 2107 that BJ’s salary isn’t an issue and if he bounces back they have a bargain.
Buehrle fills a hole in the Braves rotation and provides a mentor and veteran leader for the pitching staff. For the Braves the numbers look like this.
There is more salary adjustment to come. This is simply the effect of this move.
The Mayberry, Pastornicky swap is a net zero if we assume as I do that Ryan Doumit will labor elsewhere next year. Buehrle is a superior addition to anyone on the market that the Braves can afford and especially Jackson. In business terms this is great deal for both teams.
Extend or trade Jason Heyward
Jason Heyward is everyone’s kind of player. He should be extended in Atlanta is possible. I’ve seen suggestions of six years at $140M and I think that’s about right though he may get more. If he does I hope it’s in incentives but either way he should be signed.
I’ve noted in the past that he refused to discuss and extensions similar to the one given to Freddie Freeman. I said that I felt that he was seeking fame elsewhere but his remarks after the firing of Frank Wren hinted strongly that he and Wren did not get along changed my mind.
Peter Gammons wrote that there were “harsh feelings” between Wren and Heyward. With Wren gone Gammons feels that roadblock is cleared “. . .Heyward will now get signed to a long-term contract and avoid 2015 free agency.” So let’s offer him the deal. If he doesn’t sign he needs to be traded at a value higher than a first round draft pick or kept for that draft pick. I’ll assume for now he stays at the agreed price for 2015 with his extension kicking in next year.
Center Field
The Trade: Mike Minor and Justin Upton to the Yankees for Brett Gardner. The Yankees value Gardner but they signed Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven year deal to play center and Ellsbury is essentially Gardner with more power. Ichiro Suzuki will likely be gone next season and Carlos Beltran is now a part time DH/RF leaving them with slim pickings in the outfield. They have Martin Prado – dang it – playing left, Ellsbury in center, and whoever isn’t injured playing right.
With Mark Teixeira’s bat fading fast only Brian McCan is a real power threat. Justin Upton gives them a power bat and with the departures they can afford him. The Yanks will want more than a one year slice of Upton to replace Gardner and are short of starting pitchers. Mike Minor fits them like a glove. He’s left handed, controllable and young.
For the Braves, Gardner solves out leadoff man and center field problems and clears $2M – the difference between the Gardner and Upton contracts – and an estimated $5m the would have paid Minor. That lowers payroll commitment by $7M.
Left Field
The Trade: Evan Gattis and Elmer Reyes to the Oakland for Josh Reddick. If Billy Beane does as expected this off season the Athletics will listen on anyone. Reddick is a plus defender in right and would make the proposed outfield defense what everyone (but me) expected it to be with the Upton brothers arrived. He hit only 12 homers last year but that should increase once he gets away from the wide open spaces of the coliseum. He gets on base at a 310-320 clip but slugs at about 425 now that he’s out of Boston.
Reyes is blocked by Andrelton Simmons and is most useful as a trade piece and fills their need for a shortstop next year. Gattis gives them a controllable power bat at catcher/1B/DH. I’ve heard and understand the argument that we can’t afford to lose Gattis’ power. I love the Bear as much as anyone but I just don’t see where he plays to get the at bats needed to be a force.
He’s a catcher not a left fielder. The clubhouse sign says “Pitching and Defense Wins”. Gattis’ is at best an average defensive catcher. Notwithstanding the passed balls in September, Christian Bethancourt is a superior defender and a pretty solid bat. The presence of Eddie Perez and Gerald Laird (whom I expect will get an offer to return) or Steven Lerud should help Bethancourt correct his tendency to think his glove is enough to stop pitches off to the side. I expect them to have someone working with him this winter.
Sign Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer is a free agent this off season and while he’s not a gold glove defender he is a quality veteran utility man who can play first, third and the outfield. He’ll provide a slash line close to .275/350/450 and be the kind of veteran voice the team lacks among He should be available for something like three years $30M and that’s a good deal even if he’s not an everyday player
Reddick will make about $2.7M more than Gattis and with Cuddyer’s $10M we’ve wiped out the $7M we made and have increased payroll by $3.75M
Bench
The Trade: Luis Avilan and J.R. Graham to the Cubs for Luis Valbuena. Valbuena is a left handed hitting third baseman with pop who can also play second and in a pinch short. He’s been a consistent 310+ OBP guy since he started getting 300 PA a season. Last year he slashed .249/.341/.435/.776 in 547 PA including 16 homers and 33 doubles. That’s close to a left handed version of a Chris Johnson year when he’s not slumping. . The difference is Valbuena’s glove is better or it was.History suggests that 2014 was a blip on the defense radar rather than a trend. The Cubs have excess infielder and at 28 Valbuena projects as a platoon guy. The third base mart is thin so we have to add value in the form of Graham and possibly another prospect to make the deal. This should make the bench deep and strong.
Valbuena will make about $1.7M more than Avilan so we are now +$4.45M
Pitching
Call to the Pen
We’ve added Buehrle and subtracted Minor leaving us with four starters. I’m in the camp that says
Cody Martinis a better bullpen option than starter at least for now. I don’t believe
Jason Hurshwill be ready to start the season in Atlanta though a spot start here and there are possible, nor do I think
Aaron Northcraftis the answer. The obvious answer is to offer
Aaron Haranga contract but I think he’ll want two years and I don’t believe he can repeat his performance next year.
Likewise we will not be players for the three big names on the FA list and in reality we don’t need a top of the rotation guy anyway, Julio Teheran has earned that spot. Alex Wood pitched like a two this season but I still believe he’s a three plus so Buehrle slots in as a two and David Hale at five. What we need is a four and as Alan and other have said, the market is not promising. Every team is looking for the lightning in a bottle guy and the budget is going to be strained this year so he has to be inexpensive.
Trade Joey Terdoslavich, Cody Martin, Jordan Walden and Juan Jaime to the Astros for Scott Feldman and Tony Sipp. Feldman is in the second year of a front loaded three year deal with the Astros and makes $10M this year, reasonable for a 200 or so inning guy with a <> 3.80 ERA. He’s under control through 2016 at a almost loveable $8M. He slots in nicely as a three in most rotations and would make ours deep.
There are arguments for substituting Hale for Martin here but Hale has shown he can pitch in the bigs and Martin is probably marginally more attractive to Houston. The Astros are searching for a genuine closer capable pitcher and Walden fits that description. Jaime gives them another power arm for the bullpen. The Braves pen will have four arms that are setup capable
The net change for this is approximately Feldman’s $10M as Walden and Jaime cancel out whatever we pay Sipp. We’re now up $14,45 from where we started but Ervin Santana made $14M this season and Aaron Harang made $1M. Both of them along with Ramiro Pena are gone. If this whole fantasy were to happen, then in the end the Braves drops payroll by about $1.5M.
This is how the 25 man roster would look.
| Player | B/T | Position | Role | Lineup | ||
| Christian Bethancourt | RHH | C | Gardner | L | ||
| Gerald Laird | RHH | C | Bench | La Stella | L | |
| Freddie Freeman | LHH | 1B | Freeman | L | ||
| Tommy La Stella | LHH | 2B | Reddick | L | ||
| Chris Johnson | RHH | 3B/1B | Platoon | Heyward | L | |
| Luis Valbuena | LHH | 3B/2B | Platoon | Johnson | R | |
| Andrelton Simmons | RHH | SS | Bethancourt | R | ||
| Philip Gosselin | RHH | Inf | Utility | Simmons | R | |
| Brett Gardner | LHH | OF | Pitcher | |||
| Jason Heyward | LHH | OF | ||||
| John Mayberry | RHH | OF | Bench | Rotation | ||
| Josh Reddick | LHH | OF | Teheran | R | ||
| Michael Cuddyer | RHH | OF/1B/3B | Bench | Buehrle | L | |
| Alex Wood | LHP | Pitcher | SP | Feldman | R | |
| Anthony Varvaro | RHP | Pitcher | RP- Swing | Wood | L | |
| Chasen Shreve | LHP | Pitcher | RP – SU | Hale | R | |
| Craig Kimbrel | RHP | Pitcher | CL | |||
| David Carpenter | RHP | Pitcher | RP – SU | |||
| David Hale | RHP | Pitcher | SP | |||
| James Russell | LHP | Pitcher | RP – Swing | |||
| Julio Teheran | RHP | Pitcher | SP | |||
| Mark Buehrle | LHP | Pitcher | SP | |||
| Scott Feldman | RHP | Pitcher | SP | |||
| Shae Simmons | RHP | Pitcher | RP-SU | |||
| Tony Sipp | LHP | Pitcher | RP – SU |
That’s A Wrap
I am positive this will not please the Gattis and Gosselin supporters or the folks who think Martin is a major league starter. But I it’s the direction I’d start in this post season. What this does is address our weaknesses and the stated desires of the council of wise men. Starting pitching was the hardest issue. As Alan said the market is thin and there are a ton of buyers. Feldman seems like the kind of guy that fits.
There can be no expectation that Kris Medlen. Jonny Venters or Gavin Floyd will be back next year. History is against them and suggesting that they are anything but long shots is short sighted. Minor league contracts might well be offered but major league resources need to be expended on better bets.
Looking at our checklist we see that Gardner, Buehrle,Feldman, and Cuddyer fall into the category of quality individuals who have been in the fire and know what it’s about; Valbuena is reported to be good teammate as well. Heyward, Gardner and Reddick would be the best outfield in the NL with the possible exception on LA. Valbuena improves infield defense and Bethancourt does the same in back of the plate.
If I were Braves GM I’d probably last about 30 seconds if they let me in the door at all. However, that’s my take on the road ahead. What’s yours?