How Many K’s Can The Braves Withstand?
The Braves had another great game on the offensive side last night, scoring nine runs in eight innings. However, the strikeouts mounted up really fast, as 9 of the first 10 outs were recorded via the K. In all, they struck out 16 times in 39 PA. Here is a list of every
nine-inning game where a team scored at least 9 runs while striking out at least 16 times:
| Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | WPA | RE24 | LOB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-03 | ATL | PHI | W 9-2 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0.303 | 5.117 | 6 |
| 2012-09-29 | TBR | CHW | W 10-4 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 0.265 | 5.268 | 10 |
| 2009-09-22 (1) | PHI | FLA | W 9-3 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 0.162 | 4.430 | 10 |
| 2001-09-27 | MIL | ARI | L 11-13 | 47 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 17 | -0.105 | 5.888 | 9 |
Apr 3, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) watches his double driving in three runs against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fourth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Since 1916, there have been four games in total fitting those standards, including last night’s game. As you can see, the 39 PA was by far the fewest of the group, so that K rate is really high. The Braves only hit 17 fair balls, with 9 as hits, 3 leaving the park. Even with the high talent level in this lineup, you can’t expect a .429 BABIP and a 42.9% HR/FB% every night.
This is the effect of the strikeout paradox currently in the major leagues. There is no correlation between a hitter’s production level and their K%, but there is a fair amount of correlation for pitchers. Hitters aren’t afraid to strike out, but pitchers are geared towards doing so, explaining the constant rise in K% since 2005. It isn’t showing any signs of reversing right now, so when do you think K% will finally level off?