Before the 2012 season, Mike Minor was offended that he had to earn his way into the rotation. Â After a great spring, his first three months were horrible, sporting a 6.20 ERA, only remaining in the rotation due to the ineffectiveness of Jair Jurrjens. Â The last three months were much better, lowering his season ERA two full runs, capped by a tremendous September.
April through June saw a myriad of struggles, ranging from gopheritis to control problems to stranding runners.  In April, he actually threw well, posting a 3.28 FIP and 3.57 xFIP, but a 60% strand rate led to a 4.68 ERA.  May was a whole ‘nother story.  Strikeouts were down, walks were up, and ten balls left the park, leading to a 9.95 ERA, 8.23 FIP, and 5.64 xFIP.  This is basically what Jurrjens was in Atlanta this year.  June saw more walks but more balls stay in the park, resulting in a 4.50 ERA and a FIP and xFIP about a run higher.
September 16, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Minor (36) pitches in the second inning against the Washington Nationals at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE
Things suddenly clicked for Minor at that point.  In his four July starts, he recorded the highest K rate of any month- 26.8% – and a tiny 4% walk rate.  A 1.98 ERA for the month finally showed the Braves a reason to stick with him.  August was an odd month, as he became a pitch-to-contact guy, walking and striking out no one, though his 3.57 ERA was manageable.  Lost in the Kris Medlen hype, Minor put together his own sub-1.00 ERA in September, getting more groundballs than ever and striking out a quarter of the hitters.
Before this season, Minor’s biggest concern had been his batted ball profile.  In his first 120 innings of his career, he had allowed a .360 BABIP, allowing a lot of line drives.  He held the LD rate near average, as his flyball tendencies, along with some good luck, held opponents to a .252 BABIP.  He did allow 26 home runs, which was about average for his flyball rate, still a bit high.
His strikeouts fell under 20% for the first time in the majors, but only by the slimmest of margins.  Surprisingly, his curveball saw the most whiffs, about 35-40%.  His changeup was his best pitch against righties, allowing only 11% line drives on the pitch, while also getting over 25% misses.  His fastball was finally not pinballed around, allowing a .719 OPS on the pitch, opposed to a .850 OPS in ’10-’11.
His control was a bit iffy, only throwing 58% first-pitch strikes, but he managed to limit walks to 7%. Â Both of his breaking balls were a strike under 60% of the time, while his fastball and change were closer to a 2-to-1 ratio. Â Combining this and the whiff rates, the slider/cutter was his only below-average pitch, while his other three were about half a run per 100 pitches above average. Â No decisions need to be made on Minor yet, as he is in his last year before arbitration. Â As he turns 25 the day after Christmas, he should be a dependable left-handed presence in the rotation for the next few years.
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