The Braves Drafts Reviewed Part IV 2003-2007

If this is the first time you’ve seen this where have you been  . . So far I’ve looked at:

The Braves philosophical view of prospect selection
The current view of others who believe our minor league system today is mediocre
The beginning of the draft and a statistical look at the Braves draft history  since 1965 and
Reviewed draft years 2000 to 2002

Today I finish my look at the drafts by  looking at 2003-2007 and see how those choices turned out so far.  When that’s complete we’ll have a basis for identifying how well  their philosophy matches up to how they actually draft.

As I go through the drafts I mention the player’s Baseball America ranking. Rankings although backed with tons of objective data these days are of course subjective in nature; one man’s number one may be another man’s number five.  Generally however, there isn’t a huge difference between players as ranked by various recognized organizations. I chose to Baseball America’s rankings where possible because. they are widely viewed as the authority on draft eligible – college, junior college and high school – players and have a track record that backs up that view. Thanks to their Executive Editor Jim Callis for helping me obtain prior year ranking information. Without his help my head would have exploded. After reading this some may think it did.

The 2003 Draft

Here are the players taken in the 2003 draft by the Braves, all except Salty are pitchers.

I’m sure everyone remembers Jo-Jo and Salty and after the World Series last year most know Matt Harrision, but none of them ever made a serious impact fir the Braves in Atlanta.

This draft was once again very  thin on above average talent  by the time the Braves drafted at #35 and 36 (first round sandwich picks.) Players still available when the Braves picked included:

I have no idea why the Braves didn’t draft Jones instead of 103 ranked Atilano. It could have been that Jones told them he wanted to play every day and the Braves didn’t like him as a shortstop or see him as being worth the effort of moving to a new position as they have twice done so far with Matt Lipka.  I can see them saying Stubbs strikes out too much and even passing on Michael Bourn. Kemp was a novice baseball player at the time, no one knew how he’d adapt to the game so no taking him is also understandable. Passing on Ethier is more difficult to understand.

Ethier could always hit.

As a senior at St. Mary’s High School in Phoenix, Ariz. in 2000 he hit .527 and was named first team all-region and second-team all-state. That impressed Oakland enough that they drafted him in the 37th round. He chose junior college instead and transferred to Arizona State his sophomore year. While at ASU

he was twice named first team Pac-10 and finished  with a 371 average, 113 runs, 27 doubles, seven triples, 14 home runs and 118 RBI. His junior (last) year there he had a 23 game hitting streak and hit in 28 of his last 29 games and led the team in outfield assists. He seems to have been a ‘Braves type player’ as well, quiet well spoken and a superior athlete. I know other teams passed on him too but all of those teams drafted an everyday players early and were adding pitching.

The 2004 Draft

To say the 2004 draft was a nonevent for the Braves would be an understatement. Their first pick was in the second round at #71.

When the Braves chose Campbell a lot of the top players were gone. Still available then and for a long time thereafter were a couple of guys that might make you raise your eyebrows.

Fowler is a Georgia native who was hit  .457(14-37 in 105 ABs) and stole 23 bases for Milton High in Alpharetta that year, enough to make him a first team All –American so it’s hard to understand why the Braves didn’t take a shot at him considering who they drafted instead. Baseball America’s roundup of the Rockies draft in 2004 had this to say about him:

The Rockies had no doubt he was worth a shot in the late rounds. Scouting director Bill Schmidt echoes my thoughts on seeing a guy with his tools still available in the 14th round.

It’s hard to understand why the Braves didn’t take a shot at him considering his qualifications and the fact that he would have been another home grown talent on display at Turner Field one day. It’s harder to understand when you consider who they drafted instead.

Even if you thought he wouldn’t sign, why would you pass up the chance to have those skills in the system? They signed six unranked and never again heard from pitchers were taken instead of Fowler, that seems a blinding miscalculation to me. Ignoring Mark Trumbo seems even harder to explain.

Trumbo’s number 31 ranking was as a pitcher but Angels scouts – and anyone else who chose to watch – saw that he displayed a lot of raw power when he played the infield and had an arm suitable for third base.  The Braves should have been drawn to his as a pitcher; he was a pretty good one too. He finished his high school career with a 1.71 ERA and a bucket load of strikeouts.  A post draft BA article confirmed that even the Angels acknowledged his talent on the mound.

The answer to why the Braves weren’t interested in Trumbo more than likely comes down to money. Trumbo signed with the Angels for $1.425 million a record for a non-draft-and-follow 18th-round pick.  Fowler cost the Rockies $925K as well and that was likely a factor in the decision not to draft him.

This year they tried to trade with the Rockies for a center fielder plus a third base prospect and were willing to give up Martin Prado and an established pitcher to get them.

The 2005 Draft

The Braves prize from the 20005 draft was undoubtedly shortstop Yunel Escobar. Escobar’s presence and all around talent was one of the reason’s the Braves felt able to deal Elvis Andrus to Texas in that now infamous trade for Mark Teixeira. Jordan Schafer too was expected to be a future star.  Joey Devine threw 19 1/3 innings in 25 games over three years posting a 6.86 ERA and 2.186 WHIP. Beyond those three no one made an impact in Atlanta.

When the Braves took Beau Jones they left 41st ranked Jed Lowrie on the board probably because they had Escobar in their sights. Why they preferred Schafer to #77 ranked Austin Jackson (taken at 259) and #179 ranked Daniel McCutchen (taken at 380) is probably down to scouting preferences. Between Schafer and Jackson the Braves chose:

If you read those name and said “Who?” you aren’t alone. Leaving ranked players like the ones mentioned and by the way,  Anthony Varvaro, (62 taken 353), Justin Smoak (95 taken 491) and Ike Davis (119 taken 568) as well,  looks like philosophy taking precedence over common sense to me.

The 2006 Draft

The 2006 six draft year produced Kris Medlen and . . . well Kris Medlen so far.

Aside from Medlen the rest of our top ten have not made an impression.

• Locke threw 16 innings with a 1.8 WHIP and 6.86 ERA for Pittsburgh last year. He went to Pitt along with Morton and Hernandez for Nate McLouth.
• Gunderson pitched well in Mississippi last year and finished with Gwinnett.
• Evans was with the Mississippi Braves last year.
• Cody Rasmus missed 2007 and Chad Rogers were in A+ ball last year..
• Johnson and Evarts are in the Yankee system. Hyde with the Nats, Beck with Toronto, and Gustafson with the Reds
• Fontaine is played for Newark in an independent league last year.
• Figueroa and Coe were out of pro ball, Coe since the end of 09.

Of the remaining 40 draftees:

• 17 did not sign
• Four p J.B. Paxson, Cole Rohrboug, Adam Milligan and L.V. Ware – were in the Braves system at the end on 2011
• One – Mason Tobin – threw 5.1 innings for Texas last year
• Two are still in affiliated ball, one was in the Oakland system, one in the White Sox system,
• Four played independent ball and
• 18 were no longer playing at any recorded level.

Players available but not taken that have made an impact elsewhere include:

The 2007 Draft

As bad as 2006 was, 2007 was good.

That draft saw the arrival of Jason and Freddie as well as the just waived Brandon Hicks and our young Peter Moylan clone, Corry Gearrin. It’s really way too soon to judge this draft but there were some players available that the Braves left out there and took an unranked or lesser ranked player that you will recognize.

The player that stands out for me is Will Middlebrooks.

MiLB’s Draft Tracker said of Gilmore “His defense isn’t as sharp, but he will be drafted because of his bat potential.”  The Braves did just that, choosing power potential over the all around ability and of  Middlebrooks – ranked 36 – who the same Draft Tracker summed up as “ . . . a legitimate two-way threat. Aside from running speed, he possesses the tools scouts like to see at the plate.”

Even if you liked Gilmore why not take Middlebrooks over recently departed  Brandon Hicks? MiLB said of Hicks “. . . a speedy shortstop with excellent defensive skills and tremendous makeup. All of that won’t make him an everyday shortstop at the next level unless he can hit enough, something that scouts question.”

After Hicks but still before Middlebrooks came Dennis Dixon, of whom MiLB said “Who?” Dixon was so committed to baseball that he played 28 games of Rookie ball  then signed with the Pittsburgh Steeler in the 2008 NFL draft.

Gilmore was traded to the White Sox as part of the Javier Vazquez/ Boone Logan deal.

Middlebrooks fell to the Red Sox at #173/ The Braves have been trying to pry him away since then.

That completes my review of the drafts. What have we learned? Have the Braves shown any draft tendencies that might need rethinking?  I think the answer is yes. I’ll spell those out in Part V.

Let me know what you think of the series so far and any other comments you may have.I’m on Twitter @fredeowens and email braveslegend@fireweb.com