Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-US PRESSWIRE
A much-needed left-handed presence in the rotation, Mike Minor should get his first full year in the majors in 2012. Â While his 4.74 ERA in the first 23 starts of his career make it look like he has gotten off to a poor start, most of which is due to a .359 BABIP allowed, an unsustainable number. Â His 3.51 FIP and 3.63 SIERA show he has the skills to sustain good performance. Â The only starter without an injury the past year, he will be counted on to give around 200 innings of above-average moundwork.
When looking for a good comparison for Minor, we don’t have to go very far.  I have called him a left-handed Beachy, with both having good K/BB ratios and flyball tendencies.  While Minor was drafted 7th overall, he was not projected with a very high ceiling, but he has surpassed those expectations.  His strikeouts have been the major surprise, striking out 22% of batters faced so far in his MLB career.  His best pitch is his circle change, pictured above, with 10 inches of fade but not much depth.  He’s gotten over 15% whiffs with it, throwing it over 20% of the time.  His slower breaking ball has also gotten about 15% whiffs, despite it not being very good.  His overall whiff% is not much above average, making his good K rate a little suspect.  I would expect him to be closer to 20% this year.
Minor saw his walk rate rise only a little last year after eliminating the intentional walks.  He did get ahead of hitters much more though, throwing 64% first-pitch strikes, 6% higher than 2010.  This high amount of early strikes may have contributed to his 27% line drives allowed.  I do not have data on what he threw on those first pitches, but I’d guess a lot of fastballs.  If he can hit spots and mix in the changeup early on, he should not be squared up as often.
His 36% groundball rate is well below average, but it can prove to be successful if he sustains high strikeout numbers. Â He throws a 4-seamer and changeup over 80% of the time, and both pitches are more conducive to flyballs. Â His breaking balls will have to improve to get more grounders with his current repertoire. Â His slower breaking ball (about 80 MPH) is a combination curve/slider, not much lateral movement but more depth than a normal slider. Â His harder breaking ball is a slider/cutter combo around 84 MPH.
Minor will be an important part of the Braves rotation, with Hudson, Hanson, and Jurrjens recovering from injuries. Â He also must perform well to hold off Teheran and Delgado from starts after Hudson is ready to begin the season. Â I see Minor throwing 190-200 innings, compiling around a 3.75 ERA, good for 2-2.5 WAR, very good for a #5 starter.
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