This post was published to Tomahawk Take | An Atlanta … at 12:34:16 PM 1/25/2011
(This was published last week on my previous blog Red White and Braves at MLB blogs. I updated it and re-posted it here because many of you haven’t seen it and it is still a current conversation. I will be posting here from now on so no more duplicate posts I promise!) 🙂
Early last week I read – and choked on – an article by Mark Bowman who opined that adding George Sherrill and Scott Linebrink was a good thing “. . . Wren seemingly proved successful in his bid to add leadership to his bullpen mix. Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill have both experienced recent struggles. But they both seem capable of proving effective in defined middle-relief roles. More importantly, they are quite capable of providing the kind of direction that Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters need.” Well, yes and nope, not likely.
Scott Linebrink will probably be an okay trade. He’s been a steady middle/late relief guy with good numbers throughout his career. In fact in 2004 and 2005 he was the Padres go-to-guy posting ERAs /WHIPs of 2.14/1.036 in 04 and 1.83/1.059 in 05. In 2006 those numbers slipped to 3.57/1.216 and in 2007 it slid further to 3.80/1.222 before the Padres sent him to the Brewers where he was 3.55/1.500.
With the White Sox From 2008 thru 2010 in the admittedly tougher AL Central he was 3.69/ 1.079, 4.46/1.661 and 4.40/1.326 in middle relief. Statistically Scott Linebrink is the solid middle inning guy needed to take the strain off of Moylan. His veteran experience fits the bill as well as he’s performed well in the post season. If he can keep the ball in the park and induce double plays again he can be a very good pickup.
Mark Bowman seems to like the George Sherrill signing and the beat writers should know – at least I expect them to know – yet when I heard George Sherrill I had visions of season’s past and heaven forbid, Kyle Farnsworth.
I’ve been wrong before – yes I know it’s hard to believe but I have – so I decided to examine the numbers to determine objectively if Mark Bowman was right and I was over reacting.
From 2006-2009 George Sherrill was an average reliever (WAR > 1.0). Saying he’s had “recent struggles” is liked saying New England has had a little snow this winter.
In 2010 his ERA exploded (6.69) his WAR collapsed (-0.4) and in all measures he was just plain BAD: strikeout rate down (6.1), walk rate up (5.9) – so effectively he walked as many as he struck out. He was so bad in 2010 the Dodgers and Joe Torre – not known for abandoning veterans – designated him for assignment midyear because he could not be trusted was injured. Okay, a guy can have a bad season but does his career reflect quality performance and veteran experience of the type Kimbrell and Venters need; specifically being dependable and performing well in pressure situations? Uh . . .no.
Sherrill always handles lefties well (.192/.286/.288 – 1 homer last year, .167/.235/.265/.500 – 9 homers career) – but right handed hitters have their way with him (.276/.381/.418/.800 career era of 4.78 15 homers). Last year he was horrible; righties were 427/.516/.707/ 1.223 (32 of 75, 14 walks, 13 extra base hits, 3 homers). By comparison Eric O’Flaherty was .229/.340/.349/.690 (19 of 83, 13 walks, 7 extra base hits, 1 homer) even though he was ill a good part of the year. Conclusion?
Sherrill is no O’Flaherty; not even close. Sherrill’s numbers have a downward trajectory over the years while Eric’s have gone steadily up. Sherill can’t be trusted against right-handed hitters period while O’Flaherty’s numbers are the same no matter what side of the plate the hitter stands on. As a middle inning reliever that makes using Sherrill problematic dangerous. As a situational lefty you could only reasonably bring him in when there was zero chance the other manager would pinch hit with a right handed bat. What about “veteran presence”?
For me veteran presence means more than being old; everyone gets old but everyone is not a desirable veteran presence – think Kyle Farnsworth. He was a veteran and he provided . . . nothing useful. I define Veteran presence is the ability to provide a calm point of reference in the storm of a pressure situation. The guy who, by word or example, helps the less experienced player become successful. This is earned from performing at a high level in those situations and succeeding. Young pitchers can then look to him as one who has been there done that; think Billy Wagner, John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Trevor Hoffman.
George Sherrill is a veteran of the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles and the 2009 Dodgers. Neither the Mariners nor Orioles put him in a crucial, pot boiling situation during a big game or season determining series. Joining the Dodgers midyear 2009, he pitched very well 27.2 innings, 0.65 ERA, whip of 1.084 and one save; then came the post season.
In two post season series he pitched 4.1 innings; 2.1 in the St Louis series when he gave up one hit, one run and hit a batter (ERA 3.86) and 2 against Philadelphia when he surrendered 3 earned runs on 2 hits (1 homer), 3 walks and 2 hit batsmen while striking out 2 (ERA 13.50). That qualifies as experience under pressure but not the kind performance I want our young relievers to emulate. Objectively then, it’s not accurate to say he brings a proven veteran presence to our younger staff members; Moylan, Proctor and Linebrink have better credentials.
Fangraphs’ Jack Moore has it just about right: “. . . If Sherrill is truly used as a Left handed One Out GuY, he could be productive for Atlanta. However, he simply cannot be allowed to face a righty in a high or even medium leverage situation. Sherrill would be a fine pickup, if teams weren’t limited to 25 men on the active roster. . . Sherrill’s skills just don’t seem to provide enough given his limitations and the scarcity of roster spots.”
Signing George Sherrill, like trading for Kyle Farnsworth last year, is a mistake. He’s not shown the ability to lead/win under pressure. He has shown the ability to under-perform when the chips are down. He looks like being this year’s incarnation of Kyle Farnsworth. We didn’t need that during 2010 pennant run, why start a promising season with George Sherrill doing his Kyle Farnsworth impression?
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